Well the math is perfect, but the guesses on percentages can be questioned. I bet if I looked up FG percentage for Kasay from 50 and beyond, it's at least 40 percent. And 4th and 3 being 20 percent can't be too far off. And in fact I may have lowballed the entire getting a FG after recovering an onside kick with 15 seconds. I gave it a 9 percent chance that they get enough yards and kick the long FG. I've watched plenty of games where a team needs 30 or so yards and had very little time and I suspect it's been better than 10 percent of the time they succeed.
