Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House | Page 38 | TigerFan.com

Winston1 · May 28, 2016

That happens @islstl and the D's & media will cry for the end of the electoral college.

Don Castavez · May 28, 2016

Hypothetical - Hilary has to go away to jail. They insert Biden vs Trump. Does the contingent of 'I think Trumps nuts but we can't stand Hillary' switch back to voting for Joe??

kluke · May 28, 2016

I don't think there is anyway of knowing what this will all look like in November. No poll or expert has been able to project a month into the future, forget about 4 months. With all the turmoil in the world something could happen to completely flip what's important to the voters. And the FBI might grow a pair. It's gonna be a wild ride.

Bengal B · May 28, 2016

islstl said: ↑

Time to school this flaming liberal:

Here are the facts from the 2012 Presidential election by 5 key voting blocks:

Educated White
77 % voted, 56 % Republican

Non-Educated White
57 % voted, 62 % Republican

Black
66 % voted, 93 % Democrat

Latino
48 % voted, 71 % Democrat

Asian/Other
49 % voted, 67 % Democrat

Using the swing state calculator from fivethirtyeight.com website which recalulates each state based on the turnout and voting outcome from each of the 5 groups above, we see how very easy it will be to turn blue states red.

Using some common sense about what we've learned so far in these primaries, it's safe to say the Latino voter turnout will be higher. How much higher is unknown as Latino's typically turn out the least in general elections. So we'll be a bit conservative with the kind of bump the Dems could get from the Latino vote in 2016. Also, we know that the passion of the Black vote won't be as intense as it was for Barack Obama in 2012. So we'll temper the drastic results which will give a bump to Trump.

Asian/Other category is largely unknown so that group will be left in tact.

In the same vein, Trump has not moved the educated white towards his side in nearly the same fashion as he has the non-educated. So we'll leave the white educated exactly the same. The non-educated white is the key to the election for Trump. How many more can he get to turnout than did in 2012 and can he get a slightly higher percentage to vote Republican?

Educated White
77 % voted, 56 % Republican

Non-Educated White
60 % voted, 68 % Republican

Black
62 % voted, 90 % Democrat

Latino
58 % voted, 77 % Democrat

Asian/Other
49 % voted, 67 % Democrat

So simply upping the voter turnout of non-educated white from 57 to 60 percent and the Republican weighted vote from 62 % to 68 %, Trump wins the election 273-265 but lose the popular vote 49.4 to 48.9. I gave the Dems an even bigger bump with the Latino vote, going from 48 % to 58 % turnout and Dem weighted vote from 71 % to 77 %. And I very slightly tempered the black vote, giving Dems a whopping 90 % and 62 % turnout (down from 66 % for Obama).

But yeah I lack clarity, focus, facts, etc.
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Never argue numbers with a statistician.

TwistedTiger · May 28, 2016

Don Castavez said: ↑

Hypothetical - Hilary has to go away to jail. They insert Biden vs Trump. Does the contingent of 'I think Trumps nuts but we can't stand Hillary' switch back to voting for Joe??
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How could anyone not vote for Trump because he's "nuts" and then vote for Biden? You can't get much more nuts than crazy Joe.

LaSalleAve · May 29, 2016

kluke said: ↑

I don't think there is anyway of knowing what this will all look like in November. No poll or expert has been able to project a month into the future, forget about 4 months. With all the turmoil in the world something could happen to completely flip what's important to the voters. And the FBI might grow a pair. It's gonna be a wild ride.
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I don't think there is anything that can be done to stop that whiney little bitch Donald Trump. We are going to have a gigantic fraudulent pussy for our president. We will be the laughing stock of the world. He will make the debt worse, he will make the world hate us.

kluke · May 29, 2016

LaSalleAve said: ↑

I don't think there is anything that can be done to stop that whiney little bitch Donald Trump.
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I don't think there is anything that can be done to stop us from having a whiney little bitch for president. Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
We are going to have a gigantic fraudulent pussy for our president. We will be the laughing stock of the world.

fify

tirk · May 29, 2016

LaSalleAve said: ↑

We are going to have a gigantic fraudulent pussy for our president. We will be the laughing stock of the world. He will make the debt worse, he will make the world hate us.
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Already happened.

islstl · May 29, 2016

tirk said: ↑

Already happened.
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so tempted to close this thread as there won't be a better post than that

LaSalleAve · May 29, 2016

tirk said: ↑

Already happened.
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Well of course it's already happened.