Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Time will tell but I think she will get almost all of the Millenial support. Trump espouses too many positions that are polar opposites to the stances Millenials prefer.

 

Yeah, and I'm John Wayne

and you would be sadly incorrect and fooled by the current national polling numbers

 

I think most of the millennials will just stay home and play video games on election day.

 

wishful thinking

 

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The latest edition on state by state polling. I have also added Presidential approval ratings and General Election polling to the mix. Some recent state by state polls of interest:

Roanoke College poll shows Trump and Clinton tied in Virginia. That said, last week there was a poll that showed Clinton with a 13 point lead. Probably two outliers and the race is really somewhere in between those two goal posts.

CBS poll shows Clinton with a 1 pt. lead over Trump in Florida while the Gravis poll showed her up by 4 in Florida.

CBS poll shows Clinton with a 5 pt lead over Trump in Ohio

WBUR poll shows Clinton with a 2 pt lead over Trump in New Hampshire. This is considerably lower than previous polls out of NH. We will have to wait and see if this is an outlier or part of a larger trend. Nevertheless, something to keep an eye on.

A few very interesting notes for Republicans. Arizona and Georgia have polled extremely close this cycle. A PPP poll showed Trump with a 4 pt lead over Clinton in Arizona after Clinton led him there last week by 2. Another developing story to watch.

The second is Georgia. A FOX poll shows Trump up by 3 pts over Clinton. He was up by 4 last week. Another one that will be interesting to watch.

Trump has indeed closed the gap in General Election polling and over the past week is polling, on average, ahead of Clinton. The General Election numbers have been tightening for the past 3 months. Clinton still holds a 3 pt lead, on average, over the past 30 days. We'll see what kind of bump she gets post nomination.

Presidential approval ratings, a leading indicator going into elections, have seen Obama jump over the past 6 months. Just in the past 90 days he has gone from an approval rating average of 1.43 to 2.16 in the past 30 days. I'll keep this spreadsheet updated and report every now and then with the results.

 

Been a long time since the same party has held that office for three consecutive terms. Doesn't mean much though, really. Just a "stat" that bodes well for the good guys.

 

No doubt. I believe the last time it happened was when George HW Bush won in 1988 after Reagan served two terms. Even then he couldn't hold the office for another four years. So this is definitely a disadvantage for Clinton, or any candidate who follows a two term President.

 

I wouldn't put a number to it but at least I have mathematics and history on my side when I claim that it's virtually an impossibility for him to win. Let me explain why:

As it stands there are 7 states that are genuinely toss ups: FL, OH, NC, VA, CO, NV, NM, IA These represent 101 electoral votes.

Clinton safely holds PA, NH, WI, MI, IL, MN, NY, ME, VT, MA, CT, DE, RI, NJ, MD, DC, HI, CA, OR, WA. These represent 246 electoral votes. I know, I know....you are going to say that PA, NH, WI, AND MI are all swing states too. Pennsylvania hasn't gone Republican since 1988 and even in the face of Trump's bump she still leads him by an average of 8 points over the past 30 days. New Hampshire has gone for the Democrats in 5/6 of the past elections with the exclusion being 2000 and she leads by about 8 there also. Wisconsin hasn't gone for the Republicans since 1984 and she leads there by 11. Michigan, much like Pennsylvania, hasn't gone Republican since 1988 and she currently leads him there by 10 points.

Trump safely holds AZ, UT, GA, MS, MO, IN, WV, KY, SC, TN, AL, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, AK. These represent 191 electoral votes. This being said, Trump is in a virtual tie with Clinton in AZ, UT, GA and MS.

Given these totals you can see that the path to the Presidency is considerably easier for Clinton. If she only wins FL from the swing states, she wins the election. Or she could win OH and NV and win. Or she could win VA and CO and win. I could go on and on, but as you see she only needs 24 electoral votes from the pool of 101 available votes to win the election.

On the contrary, Trump has to win 79 of the 101 electoral votes to win the election.

So when I tell you it is mathematically impossible for him to win I am obviously exaggerating, but as you can see the road he must pave to do so is like the eye of a needle and he is the camel that must fit through it. And we haven't even touched on the demographic challenges he faces and some of those are in the critical swing states he will need to win.

wrong answer. I've said many times on this thread that she is not a good campaigner. This is not news, everyone knows this. Everyone knows she is unpopular but Trump is more unpopular than her. It's bad that we've reduced our elections down to who stinks less but it is what it is.