Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Sometimes you wonder and others you're sure.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1686128861604667

 

Trump is enjoying a bounce since becoming the presumptive nominee. Clinton will get the same when she locks down the Democratic nominee. This is nothing new in American politics. Expect these numbers to swing back and forth until we are past the conventions. Then we will start seeing things narrow down and start getting a picture of what the electorate really looks like.

One thing you will notice right now is that there is rarely a poll that totals 100% of the vote. For instance, in the CBS poll you cited Clinton leads Trump overall 47-41, but it only accounts for 88% of the vote which means that 12% are still undecided or are stating that they plan to vote for "another" generic candidate. History tells us that this is highly unlikely. People say this very often when their preferred candidate is losing the primary. Right now I would dare say that probably 8 out of those 12 are Bernie supporters who are too ass hurt right now to say they will vote for Hillary in the general. That said, we also know that it is likely that at least 6 of those 8 will indeed vote for Clinton because her political values line up much more closely with Sanders than Trump.

Another interesting number from that CBS poll were their respective favorables: Hillary at 31% and Trump at 26%. Pretty terrible.

 

The amount of support that both Sanders and Trump have received is indicative of an electorate that is highly pissed off. As I see it this anger is mostly about income inequality and the absent ladder up that has always been the hallmark of American capitalism. There are a host of other issues that make hay, but to me, this is the heart and soul of their anger.

 

Actually I wasn't insinuating that at all. If you were going to cherry pick a poll I imagine you would pick one where your preferred candidate isn't behind by 6 points.

I don't mind....you're welcome

 

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?u...cfea2f0f80e14&attid=0.1&disp=inline&safe=1&zw

Here is the updates State-by-State poll tracking spreadsheet I put together. As soon as we are able to start new threads again I will make a separate thread. As you will see there are still many states that have no polling available at all but most of them are no brainers anyway. Most of the swing states have decent polling with the exception of a few. Still, hard to rely to heavily on these numbers until after the conventions. I've also added a presidential approval ratings aspect because presidential approval ratings are often a good indicator of where the country is politically.