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Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Mar 18, 2016.

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Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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lsu-i-like said: ↑

This makes my skin crawl. So you're what a Hitlery Clitler fan looks like.
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actually, no I am not a Hillary fan, but you guys need to see the truth about Trump. I have been reading all of your hopeful thinking about a Trump presidency and it just isn't plausible, not even close.

Tiger in NC, Mar 19, 2016

#21
Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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Winston1 said: ↑

I'm sure you're posting this to get a reaction. Your numbers are meaningless NC. They assume a creditable democrat opponent. If HRC is indicted and has to drop out (even if she doesn't drop out), then the democrat party is in chaos and your numbers are meaningless.
Otherwise I'm afraid your trends are accurate. It is too bad the extreme right is so crazy and the moderates are weak as I do believe there is a natural conservatism in both African American and Latino society that would gravitate to the Rs if the door was opened. It's had to align yourself with a group that appears to hate you. Look at the tough row the Log Cabin Republicans have.
In this crazy year Trump does have a chance. Look at how many Bernie voters' second choice is Trump. HRC is so bad a person and candidate that this is the only environment she could possibly win in.
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No, I didn't post it to get a reaction. I posted it for those who honestly think Trump has a chance in hell of winning. Hillary is not going to be indicted, not even close. I've been very vocal that Bernie was my first choice so I am not a Hillary fan but I will vote for her if it is between her and Trump. Trump's unfavorables are astonishingly high and so much higher than Clinton's that it makes it virtually impossible for him to win. You rightly point out that Hillary is not a popular candidate but she, like Trump, are household names by now and have been for 20 years. There is nothing new that the electorate is going to learn about Hillary but we've yet to see all the skeleton's in Trumps closet. It is amazing to me that in the one year that an election is tailor made for a Republican that conservatives went out and found the one person in the country with lower favorable numbers that HRC.

Tiger in NC, Mar 19, 2016

#22
Jmg Veteran Member

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I don't agree with the term "mathematically" in the title, but I agree with the analysis. Trump has literally zero chance to be president. Kasich is far more likely.

Jmg, Mar 19, 2016

#23
lsu-i-like Playoff advocate

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Tiger in NC said: ↑

actually, no I am not a Hillary fan, but you guys need to see the truth about Trump. I have been reading all of your hopeful thinking about a Trump presidency and it just isn't plausible, not even close.
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Numbers change. Not that I don't give your point credence. Any nontraditional candidate will be fighting his opponent and the system (kinda like LSU vs Bama).

lsu-i-like, Mar 19, 2016

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Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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Jmg said: ↑

I don't agree with the term "mathematically" in the title, but I agree with the analysis. Trump has literally zero chance to be president. Kasich is far more likely.
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fair enough....and yes, if Kasich were to get the nomination I would vote for him over Hillary in a heart beat

Tiger in NC, Mar 19, 2016

#25
Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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lsu-i-like said: ↑

Numbers change. Not that I don't give your point credence. Any nontraditional candidate will be fighting his opponent and the system (kinda like LSU vs Bama).
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Numbers do change, I will not deny that. The reason I think they will not move this time is because of Trumps over the top rhetoric as it pertains to hispanics, the not so sincere rebuttal of the Klan's support, the racial under tones that his rallies have and his degredation of women....these are all things that are helping him with disaffected white people and propelling him to victory in the primaries. But these will be a major impediment in the general. As it stands right now, I read a new statistic this morning that says that 50% of all women voters say they have very unfavorable views of Trump. Women make up 53% of the electorate.

Tiger in NC, Mar 19, 2016

#26
MLUTiger Secular Humanist

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Tiger in NC said: ↑

Voter demographic changes have been a significant reason why the Republicans have only won the popular vote in a Presidential election once (2004) since George Sr.'s win over Dukakis in 1988. Trump and his supporters claim that he can change the math by attracting disaffected white voters back into the process. It is true that Trump has been attracting more people who identify as Republicans who have not voted in the past few elections and the exit polling from the primaries and caucuses supports it. However, exit polling has shown that he is not attracting Democrats or Independents into the fold; the very voters he will need to pull off a general election win. To illustrate the mathematic challenges he will face consider the voting demographics from the past 7 elections:
In 1992 white voters made up 87% of the electorate, blacks 8%, hispanics 2% and Asians 1%. In 2012, 20 years later, white voters made up 72% of the electorate while blacks were 13%, hispanics 10%, asians 2% and other non-white votes made up an additional 2%. These trends are showing no signs of slowing with white voters expected to make up 71% of the electorate in 2016, and hispanics making up 12%, blacks 13%, asians 2% and other non-whites 2%.

So let's take a look at what it will require for Trump to win the WH. In 2012, Mitt Romney performed better among whites than any other Republican candidate in the past 30 years by winning 59% of whites. Given that Trump's likely opponent will be a white woman rather than a black man, it is hard to believe he can outperform Romney's 59%. Further, when you consider that roughly 25% of Republicans say they will not, under any circumstances, vote for Trump, this 59% number becomes virtually unattainable. Also, Trump could outperform Romney and win 60% of the white vote but it still wouldn't be an increase in overall votes given that whites will make up 1 or 2% less of the overall electorate than just four years ago.

Next, no Republican candidate has won more than 12% of the african-american vote in the past 30 years. Given that the AA community make up a rock solid part of Clinton's electorate it is hard to imagine that she will not get closer to 90%. I do not think she will perform as well as Obama who won 95% and 93% respectively, but if Trump cannot distance himself from the perception that he is a racist she could come very close. Don't forget that her husband was, and is, considered the "first black president," whether the label is merited or not.

Lastly, the really damning demographic: hispanics. Hispanics have increased their share of the American electorate from 2% in 1992 to 10% in 2012. Romney won 27% of hispanics in 2012 with the "self deportation" message. Trumps message of mass deportation and tall walls along the border have mobilized hispanic voters in a way that we haven't seen before. Naturalizations have sky rocketed over the past 6 months from hispanics and their community are setting voter registration records. It is hard to believe that Trump can come close to Romney's numbers given the rhetoric. The last Republican to perform well among hispanics was George W. Bush in 2004 when he got 44% of the hispanic vote with the promise that he would pass immigration reform, which to his credit he did attempt in 2007. Trumps alienating hispanics puts his political ignorance on full display because this is the demographic that will give HRC the election.

Taking all of this into consideration, even if we are extremely generous with Trump's numbers and suppose that he will indeed win 60% of the white vote, 12% of the black vote, 27% of the hispanic vote and 40% of the asian and other non-white vote and he would still lose the election 52% to 48%. Winning 60% of the white vote might be attainable for him....doubtful but possible. I have already discussed how the black vote has gone for the past two elections and given the racial overtones of his rallies, I think it will be very hard for him to beat 10%. Hispanics are where this thing will get out of hand. In my summary above I gave Trump a very generous 27% of the vote. Currently Trump's unfavorable numbers are 80% among hispanics, which basically places his ceiling with them at 20% right now.

Trump cannot win but he can get beaten very badly.
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Shhhhh... Don't break their spirits now. Let election day come and go so Hillary can break it.

MLUTiger, Mar 19, 2016

#27
LSUpride123 PureBlood

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I am not sure why people keep talking about Trumps favorable rating, both he and HRC are terrible in this regard.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

Whats most surprising is that HRC has been relatively under the radar as well with regards to amount of debates and interviews. As we know, Trump has been ALL OVER the news.

Even still, she is continuing to get worse. Her numbers are even worse with independents.

LSUpride123, Mar 19, 2016

#28
Bayou Tiger Founding Member

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Tiger in NC said: ↑

Quite the contrary sir, I have just shown you why I am quite confident.
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Just as you were about Osamacare being "good."

Bayou Tiger, Mar 19, 2016

#29
lsu-i-like Playoff advocate

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Tiger in NC said: ↑

Numbers do change, I will not deny that. The reason I think they will not move this time is because of Trumps over the top rhetoric as it pertains to hispanics, the not so sincere rebuttal of the Klan's support, the racial under tones that his rallies have and his degredation of women....these are all things that are helping him with disaffected white people and propelling him to victory in the primaries. But these will be a major impediment in the general. As it stands right now, I read a new statistic this morning that says that 50% of all women voters say they have very unfavorable views of Trump. Women make up 53% of the electorate.
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Women never change their minds...

lsu-i-like, Mar 19, 2016

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