Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Mar 18, 2016.

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  1. shane0911

    shane0911 Helping lost idiots find their village

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    FIFY

    A glorious day would be for both sets of what used to be tits on those old hags to slide down and just pop off at the knee.
     
    islstl and Bengal B like this.
  2. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Prediction: 25 % of Sanders supporters will end up voting for Trump.

    Repercussion: Donald Trump is our 45th President of the United States of America.
     
  3. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    So it's well known that Trump's unfavorable with women are really high.

    The latest poll shows it at 64 %. What everyone must remember is that Hillary isn't a whole lot better, coming in at 45 %.

    I expect that 19 % gap to be reduced to single digits by the time of the election.
     
  4. tirk

    tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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    So if she somehow gets indicted it may be worth taking a flyer on trump at +250. I don't think my Kasich ticket is any good now.
     
  5. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/24/opinion/campaign-stops/the-trump-sanders-fantasy.html?_r=0
    http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...-bernie-sanders-supporters-bernie-bros-213881

    This is a myth that the media and the Trump campaign have been perpetuating that just isn't based in fact. Let's consider the issues and where each of them stand:

    Sanders supports a carbon tax.....Trump believes that Global Warming is a hoax
    Sanders wants a $15/hr minimum wage.....Trump believes that the minimum wage is "too high" at $7.25
    Sanders wants the top tax bracket to be at 54%.....Trump wants to slash it to 25%
    Sanders is an anti-imperialist......Trump wants to "take the oil" from Iraq and carpet bomb ISIS, regardless of civilian casualties
    Sanders rails against police violence......Trump says police are "mistreated" and encouraged the beating of a BLM protester at one of his rallies
    Don't forget that when Trump tried to hold his rally in Chicago he was blocked by Sanders voters who ultimately clashed with Trump supporters. Lastly, the values of Trump supporters and Sanders supporters are vastly different while the values of Sanders supporters and Clinton supporters are virtually the same. Here is the research so you can read it for yourself:
    http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/wp-content/uploads/toplines_roleofgovt.pdf
    The demographics of people who are Trump voters and those who are Sanders supporters couldn't be further apart on the political spectrum and to think that because they have some agreement on Trade pacts and reforming campaign finance that Sanders supporters will flock to Trump is naive, at best.

    You are basing your 25% off of a McClatchy poll conducted last month where 25% of Sanders supporters said that they would not vote for Hillary Clinton, whether you realize it or not. First, this is a poll conducted during the intensity of a heated campaign so it is skewed, which the pollsters acknowledged in their notes. Second, the poll went on to say that the 25% who said they would not vote for Hillary were actually leaning toward voting for Green Party candidates and not Trump.
     
  6. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    Based on what exactly? You have a hunch or something?
    Trump's unfavorables are more like 71% with women with 26% favorable. Clinton is at 51% favorable and 47% unfavorable.
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-trump-wrong-hillary-clinton-doesnt-do-very-/
    and this is from recent polling conducted throughout April. The link will give you the break down.
     
  7. LSUTiga

    LSUTiga TF Pubic Relations

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    Hillary's biggest problem right now is a huge, and I mean huge, swing of momentum. Her party is ready to go to blows from within. Much worse than the resistance seen at Trump rallies. Difference being, the resistance seen at Trump rallies, was from outside. Sanders and Clinton supporters are going to be scrapping at the convention. Just the fact that there is no clear nominee is a really huge disadvantage in itself- as I know you all know.
     
  8. Winston1

    Winston1 Founding Member

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    OMG @Tiger in NC here's the first poll putting DT ahead of HRC. It's a sample of one so far BUT it follows a continuing trend. The trend is the real bad news for her. She's still got several months of battling Bernie which will continue to drag her down. If I were in her campaign I'd be worried real worried.
    Important points from the breakdown are that DTs favorables are going up and his unfavorables are down. His percentage of womens' vote is going up. HRC favorable/unfavorable ratio is going in the opposite direction. Her unfavorable numbers are worse than hers. These are the trends that if they continue will make your original point void.

    Donald Trump just vaulted past Hillary Clinton in a major national poll for the first time


    http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-fox-news-2016-5


    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2016
  9. Winston1

    Winston1 Founding Member

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  10. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    actually it is not. there have been occassional outlying polls that showed Trump ahead since September of last year.

    and what exactly would this trend be?
    Here are the results of every FOX poll since June of last year:
    Clinton +17
    Clinton +5
    Clinton +4
    Trump +5
    Trump +5
    Clinton +11
    Trump +3
    Clinton +5
    Clinton +11
    Clinton +7
    Trump +3
    No other poll has had as many wild swings as the FOX tracking poll. In the same time frame that this poll was conducted there was a Gravis poll that showed Clinton up by 2, a PPP poll that showed Clinton up by 6, a CNN poll that showed her up by +13 an IBD poll that showed Clinton up by 7 and a Rasmussen poll that showed Trump up by 2. Throw out the highest and lowest numbers and you are left with an average of slightly more than 3%, and this while Clinton is locked in a heated primary with Sanders.

    and you have derived all of this from one poll. go to the other polls I mentioned above and look at the internals. her support among women is stronger than ever, his unfavorables are not going down, especially among women....and her unfavorables are no where near his.
     
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