Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Points are:
1) This far out, polls are volitle. This is not a standard red vs blue election. In this case past is prologue showing candidates as unlikely as Trump, Sanders and others have a chance.
2) One uses demographical data to spot trends and build campaigns not make predictions. To only rely on them for prediction is to not understand their value. Much of the trending you cite is accurate in the long term I'm afraid. However this is a year that isn't following the trends.
3) You've cited that Trumps negatives are higher than HRCs but I believe there are several fundemental differences between the two values. First as has been proven by his success in self promotion Trump is basically likable. He is getting hammered for a couple of positions only one of which is a serious issue. His build a wall on the Mexican border position is going to hurt him. The others about Muslims especially have some resonance across the population.
Let's face it HRC is about as unlikable as a person can be. See may make Nixon look good. He at least had solid credentials and accomplishments. Her long term record is being brought to light and she is being exposed for what she is, a corrupt mean self serving person. I read liberal and womens rights blogs, comments and tweets that show a growing revulsion for things she has done in the past. Even Aynomomus is exposing things about her such as how she help the rapist of a 12 year old girl get off by trashing her then bragged about it.
4) Trumps history shows he is much more liberal than he is campaigning. He does have the potential to walk back to the middle. His style will allow him to shift position without alienating the rump. On the other hand HRC is being forced left and the restive progressive wing will be less forgiving of any walk back.
5) Trump is used to and knows how to use and exploit modern media. He is a phenom in that regard. As you admitted HRC is a poor campaigner at best. She couldn't even put Bernie away with ALL the cards stacked in her favor.
Points 4&5 will be more important than you think. I'm not going to cite the past because I believe the past isn't a window to 2016.

 

Heil Hitlery

 

I think only a fool would claim to be able to predict any outcome in this election. The whole process has defied political gravity since the beginning.

 

I have said all along that polls are a snapshot of where the electorate is during that specific time period. There is a lot of time to go before the election so, sure, the polls can take all kinds of turns between now and election day. I agree this is not a standard red vs. blue election. There is a lot of angst and anger among the white, working class and in some ways I agree with them. That said, I don't think there are as many "independents" as there used to be, which means there are fewer votes up for grabs from the middle as more people identify as Republican or Democrat.

How can you not think that demographical data is a major consideration in making predictions. There are easily identifiable trends in demographics that cannot be ignored. In fact, I would venture to say that Trump's fortunes probably lie in how well he does among hispanics.

Here's the thing with their unfavorable marks. What else are we going to learn about Hillary? I mean, she's been the most scrutinized political figure in the past two decades. The Republican's who ran against Trump admittedly didn't do opposition research against him because they didn't take him seriously so I don't think we've even begun to learn about Trump's background. While his business dealings have been very public, his personal life has not and it will be fair game. And what about those tax returns?

I have been very surprised how much Republicans have been willing to compromise long-held positions to nominate Trump. I agree that he is much more liberal than he lets on.

This is probably the one factor that concerns me most. HRC is not a good campaigner and, like him or not, Trump is a damn good media manipulator.

 

that's more like it

 

Don't let it go to your head, Comrade.

 

I like Izzy, I'm just giving him a hard time. Lord knows if Trump wins this election I'll never hear the end of it.....

 

Actually the data shows fewer Republicans and Democrats and more independents. I think party ID isn't as meaningful to most especially the younger. There has been a long trend to a more socially open mindset in things such as gay rights, marijuana legalization etc. Broader and more open definition of Personal freedom is growing. This poses a challenge and opportunity for conservatives.

Of course it's an element but your post cite it as biblical fact. Major media's emphasis is both misleading and lazy. As I said it's a tool to use not an end.

To a degree there is more to learn about Trump. However his life has been public through the tabloids and sensationalist headlines have followed him for years. His real weakness is to be pressed on policy. If the Ds try to trash his personal life they'll lose....You don't get in the mud with a pig.
I think the problem is there seems to be more negative to learn about HRC, i.e. her part in defending the rapist. THAT was released by a Bernie supporter. Her issues are personal as well. She is thoroughly unlikeable. She will suffer more I think.

Yes he is and it's likely HRC will pitch right into his wheelhouse.