Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

I saw the latest round of Quinnipiac polls this morning. Will be interesting to see if this is an outlier or if it becomes part of a greater trend. Tell you what, I have some time today. I will create some graphs so we can start tracking the state polls. RCP offers an average of the past 5 polls for each state but nothing that runs over time, that I know of.

To your point about Sanders, I agree. Sanders is the better candidate imo and got my vote here in NC.

 

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Tuesday, May 10
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 43, Trump 42 Clinton +1
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 39, Trump 43 Trump +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 43, Trump 42 Clinton +1
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Trump 42, Sanders 44 Sanders +2
Ohio: Trump vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Sanders 43, Trump 41 Sanders +2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Sanders 47, Trump 41 Sanders +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) Clinton 47, Trump 41 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders PPP (D) Sanders 50, Trump 39 Sanders +11
Monday, May 9
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton Dartmouth Clinton 34, Trump 29 Clinton +5
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Sanders Dartmouth Sanders 49, Trump 28 Sanders +21
Massachusetts: Trump vs. Clinton Boston Globe/Suffolk Clinton 55, Trump 31 Clinton +24
New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hassan Dartmouth Ayotte 37, Hassan 35 Ayotte +2

 

bernie wins west virginia

 

While I am working on converting my excel spreadsheets into a graph that is understandable here are the polling averages in the "swing" states to date. I have included every poll from the beginning of the year to come up with a "Total AVG", then I have also taken an average of polls from the past 60 days and the past 30 days. You will notice in some of them there is no data available for the past 30 days. These are taken directly from RCP polls and for more information on who conducted the polls you can reference them there. So, without further ado......

Florida Total AVG = Clinton +3.29 Past 60 days = Clinton +7.33 Past 30 days = Clinton +7
Ohio Total AVG = Clinton +2.5 Past 60 days = Clinton +1.67 Past 30 days = Trump +0.5
North Carolina Total AVG = Clinton +1.71 Past 60 days = Clinton +3.67 Past 30 days = Clinton +4.5
Virginia Total AVG = Clinton +13 Past 60 days = Clinton +9 Past 30 days = No data available
Pennsylvania Total AVG = Clinton +6.43 Past 60 days = Clinton +6.67 Past 30 days = Clinton +8
New Hampshire Total AVG = Clinton +7 Past 60 days =Clinton +12 Past 30 days = Clinton +12
Wisconsin Total AVG = Clinton +10.67 Past 60 days = Clinton +11 Past 30 days = Clinton +11
Iowa Total AVG = Clinton +4 Past 60 days = No data available Past 30 days = No data available
Michigan Total AVG = Clinton +10.5 Past 60 days = Clinton +10.5 Past 30 days = No data available
Nevada No data available in 2016
Colorado No data available in 2016
Arizona Total AVG = Clinton +3.5 Past 60 days = Clinton +3.5 Past 30 days = Clinton +7

I will keep working on a graph that will be a little more visually pleasing. That said, here is the raw data.

Further here is where we are as I see the race today and based upon where we are polling wise:

Trump strongholds = 148 locked which include MS, IN, WV, KY, SC, TN, AL, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID AND AK.
Trump leans = 43 leans which include GA, MO, AZ, UT (Clinton currently leads him comfortably in AZ and slightly in UT)

Clinton strongholds = 196 locked which include WA, OR, CA, HI, DC, MD, NJ, RI, DE, CT, MA, VT, ME, NY, MN AND IL.
Clinton leans = 80 leans which include MI, NV, WI, NH, PA, VA AND NM (Dems have won each of these states in the past four elections and current polling shows Clinton with a comfortable lead in each of these with the exception of NM which has no polling out yet.)

True swing states = 77 electoral votes which include FL, OH, NC, CO AND IA.

Note that Clinton only needs to win her "locked" states and her "lean" states to get to 276 electoral votes. So in essence, to beat her, Trump would have to win every swing state and then peel off either VA, PA, WI OR MI. Getting just NV, NH or NM would still leave Clinton with more than the required 270. This is precisely why I say it is almost mathematically impossible for Trump to win.

 

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?u...a1c26cbd233ab&attid=0.1&disp=inline&safe=1&zw
Okay, here is the link to the tracking spreadsheet I created. Like I said before you will see every state, how many electoral votes each state holds, the total average of all polling for 2016, for the past 60 days and the past 30 days for each state. As you will see there are still a lot of states that have yet to conduct polling. I think this format will allow us to track whether polls are tightening, staying the same or if a candidate is starting to pull away. I have color coded the cells so where you see a red cell with a 5 in it, it means that Trump holds a 5 point lead in that category, and so on. Any questions let me know