Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Mar 18, 2016.

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  1. COTiger

    COTiger 2010 Bowl Pick 'Em Champ

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    It's not for sale.
     
    COTiger, May 6, 2016
    #191
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  2. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    dammit!
     
    Tiger in NC, May 6, 2016
    #192
  3. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Let's not forget that Bernie could run as an Independent if they can't make nice. That easily puts Trump in office.
     
    islstl, May 6, 2016
    #193
  4. LSUpride123

    LSUpride123 PureBlood

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    Why wait, Global Warming is real.
     
    LSUpride123, May 6, 2016
    #194
  5. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...bad-news-for-one-of-the-presumptive-nominees/

    NBC News First 2016 Battleground map revealed: It's actually 253-191 with 94 swing state electoral votes up for grabs (come on NBC, you're better than that, it's Romney 2012 minus North Carolina (206-15=191))

    [​IMG]

    Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado comprise the 94 electoral votes in what is now being considered the swing states.

    I've already discussed Trump winning Florida due to his own appeal there as well as a popular sitting Governor endorsing him (plus Marco Rubio now in his camp). He wins Ohio by having Kasich as his VP. Right there, the race is 253-238. Give him North Carolina, that simply won't go to a Democrat. 253-253. That leaves Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire determining who is our next President. He can win Virginia and either Iowa or New Hampshire putting him over 269.

    Democrat leaning = 52 (Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania)
    Republican leaning = 46 (Montana, Arizona, Missouri, Mississippi, Georgia)

    As you can see the entire rust belt is up for grabs (which includes toss up Ohio). Trump will push the hardest in these 4 states as blue collar hard working men and women will vote for the only candidate who will fight for their jobs. The rust belt has not been seen in this manner for a very very very long time. Clinton has already fucked up with the entire coal mining remarks and is going to have a tough road to hoe in this area of the country. I do believe he will take everything except Wisconsin. In that case, Iowa and New Hampshire put him over the top and he doesn't even need Florida.

    But yeah Tiger in NC will have you believe we can all take a long nap until Novermber because Clinton has this thing in the bag. Lots of Democrats will be just as utterly fucking stupid as this guy and not go out and vote. LOL.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2016
    islstl, May 6, 2016
    #195
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  6. LSUTiga

    LSUTiga TF Pubic Relations

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    Trump WILL win. Book it.
     
    LSUTiga, May 7, 2016
    #196
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  7. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    The new White House

    [​IMG]
     
    Bengal B, May 8, 2016
    #197
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  8. LSUTiga

    LSUTiga TF Pubic Relations

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    You surely didn't think he was going to live in the other one after an African-American did, did you?
     
    LSUTiga, May 8, 2016
    #198
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  9. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    Trump would never live in public housing.
     
    Bengal B, May 8, 2016
    #199
  10. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...eground-map-shows-disadvantages-trump-n569266
    First, here is the article that actually was published with the map you provided. You can see by it's title that it isn't a ringing endorsement of Trump's candidacy.
    Second, the article offers not one single poll or shred of evidence for any of the "swing" states they have identified.

    So let's take a look at the last few polls for each of these states to see if they really are "swing" states as Chuck Todd claims:
    Florida - (4/27) Clinton +13, (3/10) Clinton +8
    Ohio - (4/27) Clinton +3, (3/10) Clinton +6
    North Carolina - (4/25) Clinton +9, (4/24) Tied
    Virginia - (4/3) Clinton +9, (1/26) Clinton +17
    Iowa - (1/10) Tied, (1/7) Clinton +8
    New Hampshire - (4/17) Clinton +19, (2/28) Clinton +8
    Colorado - No Polling This Year
    If these are the states critical to Trump's victory then he has some catching up to do.

    But what about the poll numbers? Rick Scott endorsed Trump and Rubio is on board so why aren't the poll numbers reflecting that? True, you have discussed your opinion about Florida and have offered your justifications but the polls simply do not reflect it right now.

    And you keep saying this but there is zero information that would lead us to believe that Kasich would want anything to do with Trump. In fact, this is probably your most far-fetched predictions yet. I'd say Chris Christie, Ben Carson or Sarah Palin would be the more likely choice. Kasich is an establishment Republican and he'll sit this one out to preserve his reputation and hope to be a front runner in 2020.

    Except that it is not. Again, let's examine the recent polling. We've already looked at Ohio and, in fairness, Ohio is his best chance in the rust belt. Indiana has gone Republican for a while and will likely do so again. But the others....not so much:

    Pennsylvania - 6 polls, all from April and March, with Clinton holding 7 1/2 point lead on average. The latest poll has her up by 15.
    Wisconsin - 5 polls, all from April and March, with Clinton holding an 11 point lead on average. The latest poll has her up by 12.
    Michigan - 3 polls, all from March, with Clinton holding an 12 1/2 point lead on average. The latest poll has her up by 11.

    Again, if you can produce credible evidence that this is reversing please do so.

    But not only is Trump not faring well in the so called swing states, he is also having a hard time holding down reliably Republican states like Mississippi where Clinton is polling 2 points behind Trump, and Georgia where she is polling 1 point behind Trump, or Arizona where she is actually beating him by 7 points in the latest poll or Utah where she leads by 2 in the latest poll.
     
    Tiger in NC, May 8, 2016
    #200
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