The numbers do not lie and they are looking just as bad for your candidate as I predicted all those months ago when I started this thread. I will post my electoral college prediction in a little while and will follow up Monday with any adjustments I think are necessary. That said, I feel pretty certain of who will win what and by how much. Get your final prediction ready too. On Wednesday we'll compare the two. Maybe a new thread so that everyone else can take a shot too.
I stand by my title. I have stood by it throughout, even when Trump was nearly tied in the polls with her. I've said all along this is about demographics and the imperiled position Trump created for himself in the primaries by alienating minorities. Most operatives will strive to paint a candidate with whatever title they want. Obama did a great job of painting Romney as a rich guy who was out of touch and Romney could never overcome that. Trump did the dirty work for the Democrats by painting himself as a racist, bigot, sexist....and just about every other -ist. Simply too many unforced errors and any serious person has known this for some time.
And HRC is a proven liar who is also proven corrupt beyond my initial thoughts. The stuff this past week is far worse than Trumps uncontrolled pussy grabbing.
Watch Pennsylvania very closely folks. If he turns that, his path to 270 opens up wide. Latest Gravis poll Today has Clinton only up by 2. Harper has it a tie. Subsequanna has it as Clinton up by 2. It's a dead heat at this point. He was down 9 just 3 short weeks ago,
Rcp averages of the states that will decide the election Florida Clinton 1.2 Ohio Trump 3.3 North Carolina Trump 0.8 (now 1.5) New Hampshire Trump 1.6 Iowa Trump 1.5 (now 3.0) Nevada Trump 2.0 Arizona Trump 4.0 Maine Clinton 4.5 Pennsylvania Clinton 2.5 (now 2.4) Michigan Clinton 4.0 Wisconsin Clinton 5.5 Colorado Clinton 2.9 Georgia Trump 4.6 New Mexico 4.0 Virginia Clinton 5.2 Minnesota Clinton 6.0 So if you just went with just the rcp averages, Trump is at 240. Florida gets him to a 269 tie with the likelihood that the 2nd congressional district of Maine would put Trump at 270. Pennsylvania and Colorado could take the place of Florida and still give Trump the presidency. He could also replace a loss in North Carolina with a win in Michigan.
Agreed. My fear of Clinton(s) has always been that their combination of corruption and political connections will result in damage that extends beyond her years in office. Trump will in all likely hood be a 4 year fuck up.
Rcp averages where either candidate is in the lead by at least 3 percentage points Clinton 239 Trump 215 Add on states in which the candidate has at least a 1.5 percentage point lead Clinton 268 Trump 240 That leaves Florida, where Clinton only holds a 1.2 % lead. Trump leads by 0.5 % lead for the 2nd congressional district of Maine.
Three most likely paths to the 269 tie (which is my wish) Trump takes the trifecta of Ohio, North Carolina and Florida (plus Iowa and Arizona) Either 1) Colorado and the 2nd congressional district of Maine 2) Nevada and New Hampshire Loses Florida but wins Pennsylvania 1) Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire
