Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Mar 18, 2016.

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  1. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC It's Been Long Enough

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    Voter demographic changes have been a significant reason why the Republicans have only won the popular vote in a Presidential election once (2004) since George Sr.'s win over Dukakis in 1988. Trump and his supporters claim that he can change the math by attracting disaffected white voters back into the process. It is true that Trump has been attracting more people who identify as Republicans who have not voted in the past few elections and the exit polling from the primaries and caucuses supports it. However, exit polling has shown that he is not attracting Democrats or Independents into the fold; the very voters he will need to pull off a general election win. To illustrate the mathematic challenges he will face consider the voting demographics from the past 7 elections:
    In 1992 white voters made up 87% of the electorate, blacks 8%, hispanics 2% and Asians 1%. In 2012, 20 years later, white voters made up 72% of the electorate while blacks were 13%, hispanics 10%, asians 2% and other non-white votes made up an additional 2%. These trends are showing no signs of slowing with white voters expected to make up 71% of the electorate in 2016, and hispanics making up 12%, blacks 13%, asians 2% and other non-whites 2%.

    So let's take a look at what it will require for Trump to win the WH. In 2012, Mitt Romney performed better among whites than any other Republican candidate in the past 30 years by winning 59% of whites. Given that Trump's likely opponent will be a white woman rather than a black man, it is hard to believe he can outperform Romney's 59%. Further, when you consider that roughly 25% of Republicans say they will not, under any circumstances, vote for Trump, this 59% number becomes virtually unattainable. Also, Trump could outperform Romney and win 60% of the white vote but it still wouldn't be an increase in overall votes given that whites will make up 1 or 2% less of the overall electorate than just four years ago.

    Next, no Republican candidate has won more than 12% of the african-american vote in the past 30 years. Given that the AA community make up a rock solid part of Clinton's electorate it is hard to imagine that she will not get closer to 90%. I do not think she will perform as well as Obama who won 95% and 93% respectively, but if Trump cannot distance himself from the perception that he is a racist she could come very close. Don't forget that her husband was, and is, considered the "first black president," whether the label is merited or not.

    Lastly, the really damning demographic: hispanics. Hispanics have increased their share of the American electorate from 2% in 1992 to 10% in 2012. Romney won 27% of hispanics in 2012 with the "self deportation" message. Trumps message of mass deportation and tall walls along the border have mobilized hispanic voters in a way that we haven't seen before. Naturalizations have sky rocketed over the past 6 months from hispanics and their community are setting voter registration records. It is hard to believe that Trump can come close to Romney's numbers given the rhetoric. The last Republican to perform well among hispanics was George W. Bush in 2004 when he got 44% of the hispanic vote with the promise that he would pass immigration reform, which to his credit he did attempt in 2007. Trumps alienating hispanics puts his political ignorance on full display because this is the demographic that will give HRC the election.

    Taking all of this into consideration, even if we are extremely generous with Trump's numbers and suppose that he will indeed win 60% of the white vote, 12% of the black vote, 27% of the hispanic vote and 40% of the asian and other non-white vote and he would still lose the election 52% to 48%. Winning 60% of the white vote might be attainable for him....doubtful but possible. I have already discussed how the black vote has gone for the past two elections and given the racial overtones of his rallies, I think it will be very hard for him to beat 10%. Hispanics are where this thing will get out of hand. In my summary above I gave Trump a very generous 27% of the vote. Currently Trump's unfavorable numbers are 80% among hispanics, which basically places his ceiling with them at 20% right now.

    Trump cannot win but he can get beaten very badly.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2016
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  2. LSUpride123

    LSUpride123 Boobies make everything A OK!!!

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    You are not an expert. Opinion invalid b
     
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  3. tirk

    tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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    No one can beat hillary. So yeah great article.
     
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  4. lsu-i-like

    lsu-i-like Playoff advocate

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    I don't believe it. Trump will rise like a soaring eagle wearing a mop toupee and Clinton will drop like a lead pipe in the flint water supply.
     
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  5. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    She can be with her on kind, the slugs and leaches of the Flint sewer.

    Hillary Clinton: Leech Sucking On The Backs Of U.S. Taxpayers


    But what difference does it make?
    Welcome to the Clintons’ $11 Million Dollar Mansion in New York State

    Hillary Rodham Clinton, as a New York State Senator now comes under this fancy “congressional retirement staffing plan” which means that if she never gets re-elected, she STILL receives her Congressional salary until she dies.

    If Bill out-lives her, he then inherits HER salary until he dies. He is already getting his Presidential salary ($20,000 a month) until he dies. If Hillary out-lives Bill, she also gets HIS salary until she dies, Guess who pays for that? WE DO!

    Clinton’s 20 Acre – $11 million mansion is common knowledge. For her to establish NY residency, they purchased this mansion in upscale Chappaqua, New York….makes sense. They are entitled to Secret Service protection for life. Still makes sense.

    Here is where it becomes interesting. Their mortgage payments are around $10,000/month. But an extra residence had to be built by the government on the acreage to house the Secret Service Agents. Any improvement to the property is owned by the property owners…the Clinton’s.

    So….the Clinton’s charge the federal government $10,000 monthly rent for the use of the extra residence to house the Secret Service staff which is just about equal to their mortgage payment.


    He is the ONLY ex-president to use this loophole, thus continuing to earn the name ‘Slick Willie’.

    This means that we, the taxpayers, pay the Clinton’s, salary, mortgage, transportation, safety and security as well as the salaries for their 12 man staff and it is all perfectly legal.

    AND DON’T FORGET HIS GOVERNOR’S PENSION AND HER SECRETARY OF STATE PENSION…..

    When she runs for President, will you vote for her ?

    http://moralmatters.org/2015/04/22/hillary-clinton-leech-sucking-on-the-backs-of-u-s-taxpayers/
     
  6. xlnsports

    xlnsports Cajun In Exile

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    What is sad is lots of people will read (insert name here has no chance) and so they don't want to waste time on a losing Candidate and just don't vote at all. I liked it better when the media used to report after the news was made and not try to prognosticate who would win or promote one candidate over another.
     
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  7. Bayou Tiger

    Bayou Tiger Founding Member

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    NC, you sound worried. You should be.
     
  8. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I don't think he understands what mathematically impossible really means.

    What NC doesn't realize is that white people will vote in higher proportions than blacks/hispanics.

    Here is a great tool to fool with the numbers in both proportions and in % for each party:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...graphics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

    And let us not forget, it's the electoral college that only matters. I predict Trump loses the popular vote but will still pull in the needed 270 delegates on the first Tuesday this November.

    Here's a simple scenario that gets Trump to 50.0 %:

    66.67 % of white voters vote
    45 % of black voters vote
    50 % of latino voters vote
    40 % of asian/other voters vote

    In terms of proportions, those are extremely reasonable numbers.

    59 % of white voters vote Republican
    5 % of black voters vote Republican
    33 % of latino voters vote Republican
    35 % of asian/other voters vote Republican
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2016
  9. Bayou Tiger

    Bayou Tiger Founding Member

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    True. Trump keeps re-defining what's mathematically possible...or not.
     
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  10. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    In the southern states, whites will vote at historically high rates (I predict close to 80 %) and will counteract the black vote for Hillary.
     
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