Obama The Iran Deal We Should Have Done

Well that is exactly what the Christians and Jews think, too! Don't fall for the silly-ass third-world staged chanting, it's for internal consumption. Iranians are not stupid, just obstinate, nationalistic, and influenced by clergy. The chanting just imprints them as a third-world pretender to great power status.

Don't confuse them with Sunni Arab jihadists, they are a very different kind of radical. These are Shiite Persians and they are smarter, richer, and occupy better geography. They have an ancient tradition going back to the dawn of civilization. They are very proud of it . Attacking the United States gains them absolutely nothing but grief. Hell, attacking Israel, Russia, or Pakistan is equally suicidal. They are not going to do it. They just want to be able to deter Israel.

 

I'm quite sure that this is the dream of many of them. But it is not realistic and most of them realize this. It won't stop them from lobbying, of course, but the realist among them understand full what their hotel engagement of the United States has cost them since 1979. They went from the most prosperous and modern muslim country to economic collapse and social unrest. International relations have plummeted. They have no allies at all. They have no hope and no chance of defeating the United States and they know it. They can't even keep us out of the region. They saw us protect Kuwaiti tankers from Iranian threats and saw us defend and recover Kuwait from Iraqi conquest. They recently watched us take down and occupy countries on either side of them for daring to provide America. It made a deep impression.

How are they going to defeat Israel? They can't. How are they going to defeat Saudi Arabia, they can't as long as they are our allies. Iran couldn't even defeat Saddam's Iraq in a 10-year war. They lost a million men and demonstrated just how incompetent their military is. The Iranian people have no taste for more war. They have a taste for property. A government that continues to prevent their property and may get them into an other unwinnable war will not have a long life. There is another revolution coming in Iran and unlike the last one, we are maneuvering to be favorable to the winning side of the next one.

It's a good question. It furthers their goals by getting some relief from the crippling sanctions that have their population very unhappy and frustrated. They need this badly, which is why we used it to twist their arms. They do not like being a pariah state and want international acceptance. They have a long way to go, but this is a start for them. perhaps they will like the sanctions relief so much that they will seek to have the rest of them removed by ending their support for Palestinian terrorists and vowing never again to kill and hold diplomats hostage.

Of course, but so do we and every other power in the region. Everybody is out to protect they interests. They will continue to support Assad, Hezbollah, and Hamas as they always have, but what has it gotten them except a drain on their finances. Hezbollah and Hamas will never defeat Israel and they are living in squalor in Gaza and the wasteland that is south Lebanon. Syria is a disaster that will not last much longer. They have a population that badly desires the sanctions lifted so that they can return to a more normal modern existence and have the things that modern people desire. I think Iran will be forced to see that this money goes to their own people. There is must simmering unrest there and they can buy internal happiness with this money. It's their money, it has just been frozen in overseas accounts.

What side agreements and why do you fear them?

I don't see how. They were about to have a bomb, which is gasoline for sure. This deal prevents that. I don't see how it hurts our relations with the rest of the world either. The UN, Europe and even Russia and China are with us on this. Consider that for a moment. Everybody has an interest in seeing Iran become less inflammatory and more pragmatic. The rest of the middle east has seen us invade and occupy three muslim countries and conduct air strikes and special forces operations in five others. That action has caused many individuals to join the fight against us. we don't really have to impress on anybody the fact that we can have our way militarily if we feel it is required. Now they have seen that we can also negotiate agreements with hostile muslim countries. This gives them hope that differences with us can be resolved short of death and destruction. Mostly theirs.

 

How well has that worked for them? Jagger said, "You cain't always get what you want." Don't confuse their rhetoric with their reality. They have hardliners to appease and middle easterners have serious issues with saving face. Their mouths have greater reach than their capabilities.

 

What will? What have they actually done? Have they caused the downfall of Israel? Nope. Did they defeat Iraq? Nope. Did they defend Syria? Nope. Have they attacked us in any way? Nope. Not even after we shot down one of their civilian airliners, sanctioned them, and backed Iraq in the Iran/Iraq War.

They can't win a fight by talking about it. They talk a mean fight but they lose every battle they have ever been in for centuries. They haven't won a war since they repelled Uzbek invaders in 1510. It's a major reason that they talk so tough . . . they doubt themselves with very good reason.