Using RealClearPolitics.com poll numbers: McCain has to win almost all of these (tossups and leans): Florida (27) 49.8 45.7 Obama +4.1 N.Carolina (15) 48.3 47.0 Obama +1.3 Missouri (11) 47.7 48.3 McCain +0.6 Indiana (11) 46.8 47.3 McCain +0.5 Georgia (15) 46.0 49.0 McCain +3.0 Montana (3) 45.0 48.8 McCain +3.8 Arizona (10) 45.8 49.3 McCain +3.5 Ohio (20) 49.2 43.6 Obama +5.6 Colorado (9) 51.5 45.3 Obama +6.2 Nevada (5) 50.5 44.0 Obama +6.5 Virginia (13) 51.0 45.0 Obama +6.0 New Mexico (5) 50.3 43.0 Obama +7.3 Pennsylvania (21) 51.2 43.7 Obama +7.5 The interesting thing is Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Mexico have all gotten closer and within range for a McCain win.