The Definitive Guide to LSU vs. USC in the Battle for 2nd place in the BCS

First of all Georgia has no chance unless USC loses. Even then it would be real close between Michigan and Georgia as to who would finish 2nd place in the BCS. Still not guaranteed although I think Georgia would get it.

Secondly, Tennessee does get QW for Florida if it sneaks into the top 10 in the BCS this week (which it would with a win over Florida State). That was my mistake. Placing Florida 8th would give Tennessee a -.30 credit for QW, lowering their overrall score to 10.88. Thats how close it is with Florida should Florida win this week. A Miami loss is helpful but not necessary. I went through all the computer polls with a fine tooth comb and it is my opinion that Florida will finish at least 1.0 ahead of Tennessee in computer polls, and possibly as much as 2.0 (although this is the best case scenario). Victories over good teams with good SOS vaults you in these polls, and Tennesee's game against Kentucky is about as bad as you get in terms of SOS (see Kentucky's Opponents' Opponents records). Tennessee has no where to go but down in the computer polls this week. You can book it now, if Florida wins, then Tennessee only goes if Georgia loses to Georgia Tech (that's actually more likely than Tennessee staying ahead of Florida in the BCS should Florida win). LSU vs. Florida in the CG. Payback is a mutha!

Thirdly, the Toledo vs. Bowling Green game affects USC because Bowling Green is 1 spot ahead of USC and the team 2 spots ahead played Bowling Green this year, so they take a hit on their Opponent W-L Record. It's crazy, but USC would jump past these 2 teams, giving them a .08 decrease on their SOS down to 1.36. Every spot in the SOS standings is worth .04. Toledo will not beat Bowling Green at Bowling Green however. No worries there.

 

You can think of SOS as the "6 degrees of separation theory". Every game seems to matter somehow.


SOS = 2/3 Opponents Record + 1/3 Opponent's Opponent's Record

Do not count Div II-A wins like Western Illinois. Also, subtract out your team's record from the overrall won-loss record of your opponents.

 

Believe it or not, Florida even has an outside chance at playing in the Sugar Bowl, even with 3 losses. A win over LSU in the CG and USC loses to Oregon State, and it's would be close between Michigan and Florida. The big question would be whether or not they would vault Florida into 2nd in the AP and Coaches polls, and that's where I think it falls apart for Florida. I just think Michigan would be 2nd in both polls. That would be the deciding factor.

 

There is no fishing here. I have done extensive study of previous scoring history where possible, and I think my numbers are going to be fairly close. Once again, Florida will leap frog in these computer polls with a win over quality opponent Florida State (great SOS). Tennessee has the opposite problem. They can beat Kentucky 91-0 and the computer polls wouldn't know any better than the fact that they are playing a very poor SOS team. Florida overtakes Tennessee in 5 of 7 computer polls. Again, Jeff Sagarin already projects Tennessee to finish 18th, down from 11th, in his own poll, AFTER defeating Kentucky! The projection I gave assumes the computer polls are a wash for these 2 teams. Indeed, Florida will be much better in the computer polls after a Florida State win (about 1.70 better than Tennessee).

 

Well having the AssPiss, I mean the AP, vote LSU into 2nd is really fishing. I have not even considered any change in the media polls between USC and LSU. It ain't gonna happen. You know the media loves the traditional teams like OU, Notre Dame, USC, etc. too damn much. LSU is considered an ugly cousin to these folks. In fact, the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll stands a better chance at promoting us to 2nd, but sadly they don't have the balls to do it either.

Let's just play Florida, beat them into the ground, avenge our only loss with a win, which to me gives us a better argument for 2nd anyway. It's almost like going undefeated. with an asterisk next to it.

Bama bet not let us down........I kick dey ass. Maybe they will throw the game after they learn how important it is to LSU's chances. A-holes.

 

Well we should close the gap on the AP and Coaches poll. If we close the gap to less than half of what it is now, basically within 30 points, then we have at chance at 2nd in at least 1 of these polls.

Now if Mr. Rabalais doesn't place LSU 2nd ahead of LSU, shouldn't his ass be kicked out of town?