The Advocate: LSU to go 9-3, "Bama’s biggest obstacle is Bama"

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by Tiger_fan, May 5, 2013.

  1. red55

    red55 curmudgeon Staff Member

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    Luck, like weather and injuries, is part of the game. Always has been. And, like weather and injuries, it affects everybody about the same. LSU in 2007 was lucky to be the best 2-loss team in the country and get into the championship game versus the #1. Alabama was lucky to get a mulligan in 2011. Auburn got lucky picking up the best lineman and best quarterback from junior college and winning a title with them.

    Bad luck works the same way. LSU suffered hurricane Katrina during a football season. Bama got themselves on a serious probation and the scholarship losses ruined a decade of football for them. Some innocent Penn State football players careers have been badly impacted by some other guy's crime.

    Terry makes a good point that bias is something different. But luck is something I like about the game. Underdogs would never win if intangible factors were not at play.
     
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  2. TerryP

    TerryP Founding Member

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    Brings a question to mind regarding injuries.

    If we had lost McCarron this season, we wouldn't have beaten UGA. Without him I do believe we would have beaten Notre Dame. It probably would have been a closer game and unless they put nine or ten in the box I still believe we could have run the ball, successfully, against the Domers.

    In 2007, without Flynn and starting Perriloux, do you think you'd have beaten UT in ATL? What about Ohio State for the crystal ball?

    If I recall correctly, Matt had a banner day against the Buckeyes.
     
  3. red55

    red55 curmudgeon Staff Member

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    Perrilloux was a stoner and a slacker off the field, but he was a damn good quarterback that was just starting to shine. If he had played, perhaps neither of the two triple-overtime road losses would have happened and LSU would have coasted into the championship game undefeated, as in 2011. If he didn't hold up or got hurt, we still had Flynn, who spanked #1 Ohio State anyway.
     
  4. TerryP

    TerryP Founding Member

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    I recall he had a great TD to INT ratio one of the things I considered a "knock" on Matt. But, at the same time, I don't recall him having a lot of passing attempts. I'd have to go pull the stats to verify this but it seems to me he had about a quarter of the attempts Flynn had that season.

    My memory of that season is what led me to that question.

    I recall that game in New Orleans fairly well I believe. One thing that is the same today as it was years ago is enjoying seeing Ohio State get beaten.

    LSU down early...gosh, the more I think about it I want to say Flynn threw for at least three TD's that day: heck, maybe four? I know he didn't account for all of them because you guys has Hester in the backfield and while I can't recall exactly, guy tells me he had at least a TD on the day.

    Anywho...doing work in my attic today and it's just where my mind went...I'm blaming the heat if I'm recalling this incorrectly.
     
  5. VampMuse

    VampMuse Veteran Member

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    Definitely something you and I can agree on Terry :)
     
  6. Tiger_fan

    Tiger_fan Veteran Member

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    With Urban being 12-0 so far at Ohio St, 2013 Ohio State is looking to be one of their most-hyped teams ever

    Here's their best chances at a loss before the Big Ten Championship...

    Road
    at Cal, Sept. 14
    at Northwestern, Oct 5
    at Purdue, Nov 2
    at Illinois, Nov 16
    at Michigan, Nov 30

    Home
    Wisconsin
    Penn St
    Iowa
    Indiana
     
  7. TerryP

    TerryP Founding Member

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    I can understand why.

    They did lose around ½ of their starters from last year on both sides of the ball, but the majority of them were backed up by guys how had redshirted and are now seniors in 2013. Most note that while the Buckeyes had probation and sanctions there wasn't a dramatic loss of scholarships and Tressel had been stockpiling talent. They are in far better shape than say USC in terms of rosters size, experience, and depth. (Coaching a given over Kiffin.)

    I tend to look and see this was a team that slipped by Michigan by five points last season. And we all know Michigan wasn't near the team it was cracked up to be this time last year. That's not to mention wins over Purdue (OT,) Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Cal that were all by seven points or less.

    Michigan brings one of my early thoughts to mind. Is Braxton Miller the 2013 version of Denard Robinson 2012? Miller's completion percentage is a little better than Robinson's was, his TD to INT ratio is 15 to 6 versus Robinson's 20 to 15. Roughly the same amount of passing yards and their rushing stats are almost identical (comparing Jr. to Jr. years.)
     
  8. luvdimtigers

    luvdimtigers Founding Member

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    I think both of y'all are saying the same thing in different ways, Fla, Ga, and SC played down to their comptetion and were inconsistent at times, makes my whole point, that with an easy scedule, for the SEC anyway, there's a better chance of getting away with a win when you're not at your best, and more importantly, not having to bring your A game as much.

    Kudos to TerryP for admiting that bama's making out like a big dog on scheduling, he's the only bama fan i've seen even discuss it.

    Terry, have you ever heard any explanation out of the SEC office as to why they pulled Ga off of y'all's schedule and put them on ours even though we've played them more recently? I don't remember hearing any explanation.
     
  9. TerryP

    TerryP Founding Member

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    I have a suggestion followed by a conclusion.

    When you see me involved in discussions about different collegiate football teams save yourself some time and stop changing the subject and making the conversations about Alabama. I would expect that type of reaction from some Auburn fans. LSU fans have far too much going for them to fall into what's seemingly an obsession. Let's have some fun this off-season and keep to the subjects being discussed.

    You've thrown out a handful of comments here but I'm going to stick with one subject at a time—the subject and post you quoted.

    You've stated that "Teams that have good Defenses & Poor Offenses often are wrongly determined to be "Playing down their competition"." [sic]

    So, if I read this correctly, if one says "Florida played down to their competition" in the games I cited earlier that is a determination that's wrong. That only goes to confirm the struggles Florida had with ULL and Mizzou were due to the point they weren't as good of a football team as they were characterized to be last season.

    In addition, when we take the rankings you included in your post it goes to show they had a bad offense and a good defense. Which further proves the point they weren't a good team.
     
  10. TerryP

    TerryP Founding Member

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    The schedules were done in the form of a draw and that's what the SEC office has said about how the bridge schedules were handled for the past two seasons. I've also been told that the schedule for next year is going to one made where they are actively seeking a balanced rotation between teams. So, I fully expect to draw UF or UGA next season.

    I am disappointed we didn't get UGA in the regular season and I'm glad we played them in the SECCG. It's one of those traditional rivalry games I wish we could have year in and year out.

    And yes, there isn't an if, and, or but about how the schedule has fallen last season and this upcoming season. If the team plays to expectation it makes 2013 a season with two significant games in the "road to ATL."

    On the other hand, it's a three game situation with LSU with two of those being road games. Although, road games in Tuscaloosa for the Tigers haven't carried the same disadvantage as it does with other games. What's the record now? 5-1 over the last six I believe?

    TAMU gets a better route than LSU as well. Their schedule boils down to two conference games with the most difficult one being on the road in Baton Rouge. It's weird to say theirs is probably tougher because they drew Vanderbilt.
     
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