Perhaps my thinking is flawed because the MLB team that I keep up with the most is the Astros but... If a pitcher is so dominant at the college level like Gray or Nola, why not give them every chance to win the 5th spot of your rotation in spring training of the season immediately following the draft (i.e. spring '14 for Gray). Guessing if everything goes to plan, we won't see Gray or Nola in the bigs for at least a few years. How would they fare today if given a chance to start against an average MLB lineup?
Bringing a guy up too soon can kill his confidence. It's a different world playing pro ball. Plus, you're talking about a season that is 3x as many games. Can't just go out there and do it. You have to build up to it.
Yeah, building up to the long season makes sense and I probably should have thought of that. I've heard the confidence argument before but don't really buy it. College QBs are now starting in their rookie season of the NFL and it's a completely different game. College big men dominate other big stiffs but then often struggle against NBA big men with actual athleticism to go along with their size. You adapt and grow as a player on the fly. Baseball would seem to be even easier to overcome confidence issues. There are fewer moving parts or elements to overcome.
Football doesn't really have a choice, though. There are no real minor leagues. Late bloomers like Alex Smith, Rich Gannon probably could have used some time in the minors.
Saw an edition of ESPN's Sports Science the other day that finally gave us some useful info, and applies here. Most people don't realize how big a factor the ball is in the difference between college and MLB hitting. College uses a ball with stitches raised about a millimeter higher than do the pros. As a result, its much easier to throw nasty breaking stuff with the college ball. Without some transition time to learn to get more movement with the pro ball, I think most college pitchers would get jacked if they jumped right to the majors.
Seems like they should use the same ball but what do I know. The announcer during the Nola/Gray game was saying he expected Nola to get drafted fairly high in the 1st round next year. One of the reasons was that he had a lot of movement on his pitches. Maybe he won't have that same movement with the different ball. My next door neighbor is a scout for the Phillies. With so many players to scout from all over the world and the differences between high school and college equipment, that must be a tough job.
Kevin Gausman (taken #4 overall in the last draft) just got called up to the Majors after only 13 starts in the minors (2 starts in Single A, 3 starts in Single A/Advanced, 8 starts in Double A) and in his four MLB games, he's been getting shelled: going 0-3 with a 8.84 ERA over 19.1 innings pitched and opponents are hitting .346 against him 5/23 -- (vs Toronto) -- 5.0 IP, 7 hits (2 doubles, 1 home run), 4 ER, 5 K's, 2 walks, .333 opposing bat avg 5/28 -- (vs Nationals) -- 4.0 IP, 8 hits (1 double, 3 home runs), 7 ER, 0 K, 1 walks, .444 opposing bat avg 6/02 -- (vs Detroit) -- 6.0 IP, 5 hits (1 double, 1 home run), 1 ER, 4 K, 1 walk, .238 opposing bat avg 6/08 -- (vs Tampa) -- 4.1 IP, 8 hits (2 doubles, 0 home runs), 7 ER, 6 K, 1 walk, .381 opposing bat avg it's an interesting question, what does NCAA baseball compare to? at the bar this weekend, a guy was saying Double-A, but looking it up, i'm thinking NCAA ball is more like Single-A here's the break down of the minor leagues, with the Astros' minor league teams in parentheses 30--MLB 30--AAA (Oklahoma City RedHawks) 30--AA (Corpus Christi Hooks) 30--A Advanced (Lancaster JetHawks) 30--A, full season (Quad Cities River Bandits) 22--A, short season (Tri-City ValleyCats) 31--Rookie, domestic (Greeneville Astros and GCL Astros) 40--Rookie, foreign (DSL Astros) looking at all the guys from our 2009 National Championship team, most of them are 23-24 years old, and currently struggling in A Advanced (Gibbs, Nola, Hanover, Ott, Goody, Alsup, Dishon). and some of them are 23-25 years old, and currently struggling in AA ball (Schimpf .218, Mitchell .148, Mahtook .243, Landry .223) with the only exception of Ranaudo who is doing pretty good in AA (59.1 innings pitched, 2.43 ERA, 6-1 record). age 25 Ochinko just got called up to AAA, and AAA is where Coleman has been (going between AAA and the majors). LeMahieu is the only one in the majors. and the rest are no longer playing (including Blake Dean) also, consider that the best talent out of high school doesn't go to the NCAA, but instead to the minors. it's rare to see a 1st/2nd R pick out of high school going to the NCAA and of 1st Round picks that current NCAA pitchers had to face in the NCAA, there hasn't been many of them over the last 2 seasons: 2013 #2 -- 3B Bryant, San Diego #6 -- 3B Moran, UNC #8 -- SS Dozier, Stephen F. Austin #12 -- 3B Peterson, New Mexico #13 -- OF Renfroe, Miss State #26 -- 3B Jagielo, Notre Dame #27 -- CF Ervin, Samford (AL) #32 -- CF Judge, Fresno State 2012 #3 -- C Zunino, Florida #15 -- OF Naquin, Texas A&M #23 -- OF Ramsey, Florida State #24 -- SS Marrero, Arizona State #25 -- 3B Shaffer, Clemson #28 -- OF Roache, Georgia Southern
There's low A and high A. I think college ball is more like low A on average with some of the elite teams/players closer to high A.
I saw that same segment. I think it was 0.50mm for majors and 1mm for NCAA, but still, it's a drastic difference when it comes to grip & rotation. Didn't they also say that the MLB was harder than the NCAA ball? Another thing is that MLB hitters are so much more disciplined than college players. Ted Williams said it would take a player 500 at-bats in the minors before he was ready for the pros. So that's 2-3 more (college) seaons, facing much better pitching than in college.
