http://www.policymic.com/articles/8...romney-predicted-ukraine-s-invasion-years-ago Some of it is clearly spin, but some of it is right.
Another question. I know some sanctions will probably fall, but is there a chance that if too harsh Russia just says fuck it and War it is?
Wake up and smell the coffee, Winston. The Russians had a revolution against the communist Soviet Union not long ago. They had a revolution against the Czar, too. Both successful. Putin has not forgotten this. The old communists yearn for the old Soviet way, but the people want a free society and especially a free market economy and they are addicted to it. You are correct in that old ways die slowly and many yearn to be respected as a superpower again. But most of them enjoy a somewhat free'er press and fewer long lines to buy basic needs, have better jobs that pay well, and opportunities for upward mobility. No, they don't really understand democracy or they wouldn't permit Putin to take control of the country, but they do want it. They know that we have it and they don't. Putin has to play his own people very carefully.
Llimited war maybe, as in Afghanistan and Chechnya. But a general war with NATO? Not a chance. They couldn't pull that off as the Soviet Union and they can't do it now. They can't afford another Cold War either.
And Ukraine has never really had an issue with that. The bases are Russian, there by design, and are not why the Ukrainian government broke down. That's why this incursion is about something different. When you put a couple of brigades on the ground you have changed the situation. There is going to be a new government in Kiev and Putin is trying to coerce it at best. At worst he is intent on installing the pro-Russian government of his choice in charge via military occupation. In between, there is a lot.
The Ukrainians are well armed, they have an army. There are just not many of them compared to Russia. If it turns into an insurgency there are plenty of weapons in the Ukraine. No, we apply political and economic pressure to deter a fight. If there is a fight, its the Ukrainians fight. But a major war on the border of NATO will be a gamer-changer and everybody will be augmenting military capacity in the region.
Probably not in this crisis as there isn't time to send enough arms to Ukraine that would matter in battle today. If the immediate crisis ends then it will likely happen.
With our allies, yes. Far better than Russia. But it would not be pretty. Not a lot of people died in the cold war but vast sums were expended to threaten each other. No one needs that kind of waste today, not to mention the chance of total economic collapse and armageddon.
