Military So ISIS & the Middle East

The answer is somewhere between the childish Rambo fantasies and the do-nothings. ISIS is not an immediate threat to us. They are mostly a threat to a wide swath of desert inhabited by Sunni tribesmen. They haven't taken Baghdad or Damascus and are mostly contained by geography. The only Americans they have killed are independent journalists who went to their turf without US government approval. They are no threat to us on our turf yet. They have their hands full trying to keep what they have right now.

They are a potential threat in the future, which is why they must be addressed. But we have to be really careful about it. Someone has to be ready and able to take over when ISIS is defeated. That will be Iraq and the Kurds in Iraq. But who will do this in Syria? Most likely Assad and the Syrian government, which is not palatable to us either. The hundred or so non-ISIS militias are mostly islamists who have cut deals with ISIS so we can't really arm them with anything big because it will end up with ISIS. The others are mostly educated doctors, businessmen, and pharmacists who have never shown the capacity for street fighting on the scale that is needed. Until and unless some local allies step up to assume the responsibility of occupying Syria, ISIS will be difficult to eliminate. Meanwhile ISIS is fighting Assad and Hezbollah. Israel wants that to go on for as long as possible, as should we.

The only local ally who could defeat ISIS on the ground and occupy Syria is Israel. But that opens up a new can of snowballing clusterfuck. The Arab league would change sides and any coalition would collapse. Plus Israel isn't excited about it. They can defend themselves from Syria no matter who is in charge. They are too smart to take on an endless occupation of a hostile population that large. They can't even suppress the islamists in the territory they already occupy.

The America war hawks are screaming for action because of fears about jihadist attacks in the US, but those have been few an feeble since 9/11. ISIS is in no better shape than Ql Qaeda to succeed at this, despite their rhetoric. In fact they are in worse shape because of their situation on the ground. Their logistics are poor, they have no economy to support them, they have no allies, and lots of real problems that prevent them from going much further than they already have.

We have to consider carefully the back breaking costs, high casualties, and international scorn of undertaking another unnecessary war in the middle east. The bastards cannot defeat us, but they can bankrupt us if we take counsel of our fears. That was bin Ladin's plan all along.

 

They need squashing, but it does not have to be instantly. They are no immediate threat. It is wise to take the time to get a coalition together and deploy it (it took 6 months in 1991). It may take longer this time since we will not be deploying US ground forces. It will take time to identify, train and equip the local allies. It is prudent to weaken ISIS in the meantime by removing their financial resources, establishing reliable intel, stopping the flow of foreigners through Turkey, interdicting their supply chain, and attriting their military units. Meanwhile ISIS is still engaged in a fight with Hezbollah and the Syrian Army and with the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga. Time is on our side in this fight.