So, how important are this weekend's games?

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by BrettStah, Nov 30, 2006.

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  1. Bengal Buddy

    Bengal Buddy Founding Member

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    I totally agree, and just e-mailed Dandy Don stating why I do not think the outcome of the USC-UCLA game will affect LSU. Should UCLA win, Michigan will to the NC game and USC would play LSU in the Rose Bowl. The only way LSU could be eliminated would be if Notre Dame plays USC, but considering the fact that USC so recently manhandled the Irish, it is very doubtful that the Rose Bowl would want a rematch of that game.
     
    Bengal Buddy, Nov 30, 2006
    #11
  2. LSUTiga

    LSUTiga TF Pubic Relations

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    Most, understandably, are assuming a USC blow-out and it could very well be; however, if you look at the scores from their games this year, it's easy to see how it's far from out of the question that UCLA could upset them. Granted, USC's offense has been clicking since the second half of the Oregon St. game.

    I know it's not a true picture to compare common opponents and road games vs. home games make a difference, but just for discussion, if you look at what the offenses/defenses did it's not a reach to say UCLA could pull it off...they almost did in '04. It's a pretty neutral "Home field" advantage for both and how much would that mean to UCLA to knock USC out of the title hunt with the immense hatred that exists between the two.

    ..............USC.............................................UCLA
    at Arizona (W)................20-3........Arizona (W)............27-7
    at Washington State (W)..28-22.......Washington St. (L)...15-37
    Washington (W)..............26-20.......at Washington (L).....19-29
    Arizona State (W)...........28-21........at Arizona St. (W)....24-12
    at Oregon State (L).........31-33........Oregon St. (W)........25-7
    at Stanford (W)..............42-0..........Stanford (W)...........31-0
    (21) Oregon (W).............35-10........Oregon (L)...............20-30
    (17) California (W)..........23-9..........at (10) California (L)..24-38
    (6) Notre Dame (W)........44-24.........Notre Dame (L)........17-20

    Don't know if they pull it off.....as you can see from the picture, they ain't to smart! :rofl:

    [​IMG]
     
    LSUTiga, Nov 30, 2006
    #12
  3. Bengal Buddy

    Bengal Buddy Founding Member

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    Yes, but USC just defeated Michigan pretty handily and it is doubtful that the Rose Bowl would want a rematch. But it does remain within the realm of possibilities.
     
    Bengal Buddy, Nov 30, 2006
    #13
  4. TigerWins

    TigerWins Founding Member

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    When?
     
    TigerWins, Nov 30, 2006
    #14
  5. LSUTiga

    LSUTiga TF Pubic Relations

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    That's exactly what crossed my mind yesterday too. It'll be great!
     
    LSUTiga, Nov 30, 2006
    #15
  6. mobius481

    mobius481 Registered Member

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    What DD was saying is that the only way there is even a chance of us getting screwed is if UCLA beats USC and then Florida hammers Arkansas. At that point, Florida could jump Michigan, the Rose would very likely take UM versus USC (who would have an auto bid). At that point it would be tough for us to still get shut out of the rest of the BCS but not impossible. Then if Rutgers beats WVA, they are Big East champs.

    Okay, so if all that happens, there is a chance that the Sugar passes on us (I've heard they want a team that will fill up the hurricane ravaged hotels in the area and LSU fans don't stay in New Orleans for 3-6 days), they would most likely pick Notre Dame and Louisville (one loss team ranked 5th in the BCS) and then that would leave Rutgers versus the ACC champ in the Orange Bowl and Big 12 champ versus boise in the Fiesta Bowl.

    So taking a cue from Islstl, here are the odds:

    Florida demolishing Arkansas, UCLA beating USC and Rutgers beating WVA combined is about .5% (10% for both Florida and UCLA and 50% for Rutgers)

    Then for Florida to actually jump Michigan is probably 25% in this scenario.

    The the bcs falling out as I described is probably only 25% or so even if all of these games and ranking fall in this manner. That means the odds of this situation happening (in my mind) are......(drum roll please)......

    .03% or about 3200 to 1.

    So put 3201 pieces of paper in a hat and pick one and if you pick the wrong one, we are all screwed.

    So basically, it probably matters a very little what happens this weekend as far as us getting a bcs bowl.
     
    mobius481, Nov 30, 2006
    #16
  7. tenebrism

    tenebrism Founding Member

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    i think what dandy was talking about was it messing up our chances for playing michigan.

    also, a usc loss could "knock" us into the sugar bowl, but that's pretty far-fetched. if anything we'd play usc in the rose.
     
    tenebrism, Nov 30, 2006
    #17
  8. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    USC loses and Florida wins (close game) and LSU is DEFINITELY playing USC in the Rose Bowl. No way the Rose pits USC and Notre Dame again. USC wins and Florida wins and we are dealing with all the hoopla over Michigan/LSU matchup vs. Michigan/Notre Dame. We all know the momentum LSU has going for it in that scenario, even though it's far from being a definite.

    Why do I say close game? In the USC gets upset, a Florida blowout could very well put them in the BCS CG by overtaking Michigan for #2 in the BCS (I crunched all the numbers and only 1 out of every 3 voters has to flip flop their card in favor of Florida over Michigan, not exactly a monumental task). If Florida goes to the BCS CG, then it's USC vs. Michigan in the Rose Bowl, book it, done deal, finito.

    Worst outcome with the Florida game is probably a close loss by Florida to Arkansas. If Arkansas does indeed win, then hopefully it will going away. A big loss by Florida and they are out of the BCS bowl picture entirely.

    That being said here are the relative chances of that happening.

    USC loses to UCLA = 15 %
    Florida blows out Arkansas = 10 %
    Chance voters vault Florida to the BCS CG = 50 %
    Chance USC would play Michigan should Florida go to the BCS CG = 100 %

    .15 X .10 X .50 X 1.00 = .0075, less than a 1 percent chance we are headed to the Sugar Bowl

    I will be rooting for:

    1) USC losing - my thought is that USC/LSU is a lock over USC/Notre Dame or USC/Florida.
    2) If USC loses - Florida winning close to avoid a USC/Florida matchup and Florida moving up to #2 in BCS (I believe that will require a Florida blow out over Arkansas)
    3) If USC wins - Florida winning to avoid Michigan/Florida matchup and LSU being out of BCS bowl picture altogether
     
    islstl, Nov 30, 2006
    #18
  9. BrettStah

    BrettStah Tiger Fan

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    <Lloyd from 'Dumb and Dumber'>
    So you're telling me there's a chance.
    </Lloyd>
     
    BrettStah, Nov 30, 2006
    #19
  10. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Not sure which chance you're speaking of, but yes there is a less than 1 percent chance LSU is heading to the Sugar Bowl. It's real, it's not silly, it could happen. But in the end, it won't.

    I put my odds at 15 % for UCLA because it's at UCLA and it's a rivalry. Otherwise it would be more like 5 %.
     
    islstl, Nov 30, 2006
    #20
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