To some extent, it probably is about the breakaway provinces; cutting those out of Georgia takes two big chunks out of Georgia and probably significantly weakens Georgia. But I think you're right too. It just seems a shame that we have to leave some people out to dry (the breakaway provinces, for instance), but I suppose it can not be helped. Really, I guess we should keep our nose out of as much foreign conflict as we tactically can. It is in our best interest to allow foreign nations to handle their own conflicts as much as possible.
I think the bottom line is that we simply can't do much about it. We may protest loudly, but Russia knows we are a bit of a paper tiger right now. We are somewhat stretched militarily (not that we'd be fighting anyway), it's an election year with a lame duck incumbent, and the country is politically divided. Add on top of that the restructuring and reposturing of the military over the last 15 years from a Cold War stance to what it is today, and it's really no wonder Russia is acting boldly now.
Please, do us a favor and at least warn us the next time you decide to go on a vacation, or maybe you should just say Noooo to vacations!:grin:
See, the Rooskies were just waitin' fer me to turn my back. Now I'll have ta go an harelip ever last one of 'em! :grin:
What, like Russia is threatened by Georgia? Or Russia needs more territory? This is about Russia trying to appear superpowerful again. The US is distracted in the Middle East, the former Soviet Satellite states have joined NATO, and now former parts of the Soviet Union want to join NATO. This is a message to Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Khazakstan and Uzbekistan that they shouldn't regard their "independence" too seriously. The dark cloud of renewed Cold War tensions do have a silver lining. First, it has invigorated NATO to reexamining the threat. Russia had been thought of as an emerging democracy and free market country rather than the old totalitarian communist threat. So Russia then comes along and does its old invasion-of-a-neighbor thing right on cue, when the US was having trouble making people understand the threat. The Poles and Czechs have suddenly have jumped on board. Secondly, the Russian military is decades behind technologically and this "invasion" showed it. Ancient tanks with reactive armored added, ancient APCs, old jammable radios, poorly disciplined troops, dumb bombs. They pushed aside the tiny new Georgian military forces of course, but would have struggled trying it against a NATO member. And if they hang around Georgia and let it become an unpopular Chechen occupation, they will suffer from guerrilla insurgencies just as they did in Afghanistan and Chechnya. And guess who is likely to arm the insurgents? And Georgia is likely to get fast-tracked into NATO because Putin gave them a pretext. Our army may be tied down and overextended in Iraq, but our Air Force and Navy is not in the least and have capabilities that dwarf the Russians.. A superpower's responsibilities are global and so are our vital interests.
Russia is threatened by Georgia once Georgia joins NATO. Russia probably sees cutting their borders with a NATO nation to be in their best interest. Also, pushing back Georgia's inclusion into NATO probably wouldn't bother Russia. But I'm not saying they aren't also trying to make a statement, especially at a time when they perceive us as being in a weak position. That may be true to an extent, but it helps when friendly countries can take up more of the slack. I think it would help us to get these other countries to shoulder some of the burden. The EU should be playing a large role in this Georgia/Russia conflict, and they are.
Even in this technologically advanced age, Russia's main defense and key to her strength always has and will continue to be her vast size. She has always tried to maintain a buffer zone of outlying territory around her borders to protect Mother Russia itself. I don't see this as any different. The former Warsaw Pact nations that have joined NATO have stripped her of her "outer ring", but now former Soviet Republics leaning towards the West is just too much for them. They will use everything they can think of to prevent that from happening. I think you're right, Red. Their economy has recovered to the point where they can actually pay their military, but not to the point where they have been able to do much as far as new weapons development.....for now. If Europe (and NATO) take firm diplomatic and economic action to show Russia that this move isn't acceptable, they will eventually have no choice but to back off, simply because Russia's economy has become dependent on Europe. I guess that's a side benefit to us for them dumping Communism and changing to a market economy. They now have to care if the West will or won't trade with them.
This story gets more interesting every day. It seems like the Soviets have called our bluff along with the rest of the world. Interesting perspective about their economy although I'm not too sure that will have a big impact. They've been through hard times before.
I think the key question about their ability to stand economic hardship is how will the average citizen handle it? Pre-1990, all they ever knew was long lines for a roll of toilet paper and a loaf of black bread. They've now had 15 years or so of "free market" economy. While way below what we're used to, their standard of living has got to be 1000 times higher than it was under communism, so they might not be willing to put up with too much economic hardship. Ironically, that was probably one of the USSR's biggest assets as far as dealing with a potential conflict. You could pretty much count out trying to starve them out.
