i know, there is a tremendous amount of luck involved in poker, unless you pay lots and lots and lots of hands. then do it. thats why i have been asking. my point is that even a huge tournament is so few hands that luck is a major factor. of course i am aware that if you play infinite hands everyone gets exactly the same hands. my question to you is how long do you have to play before luck is no longer a factor. let me phrase it this way. do you think you have the skills to win the world series of poker? and if so, is poker so easy that even a guy lke you can be as skilled as the best in the world? ok so it takes two months of playing the best in the world for luck to leave the equation? if i am a casual player who plays 3 tournaments a year, will you accept that luck is a major factor in determining what happens? what i am telling you is that luck plays a large factor until you have played an enormous amount of hands. more than you seem willing to admit. i could beat you very easily, and you could beat me very easily. even if one of us is far far better.
anytime a regular fellow can beat the best in the world, there is plenty of luck involved. dont you think it is sort of weird that you cannot beat the best at the world at anything except poker? ok fine you are one the best poker players in the world.
of course there is plenty of luck involved much moreso in poker than golf or an athletic sport. its a mathematical fact. And yes, it takes a large amount of hands for the statistical probabilities to work themselves out yet i do not think there is a set # that is the mean. Id guess hundreds of thousands before you could be certain. I think the best player ive seen over the years is negreanu because he pretty much tells you what the other guy has each and every hand in a tournament yet had his worst year ever last year because he has a terrible run of luck. He didnt win an event the entire year. Eventually he will win it all back, of course, because he is an actual poker professional. A poker pro is someone who makes their actual living from playing poker and not from being a patent lawyer or an accountant as their original job. So many people like to claim they are semi-pros or whatever. Thats a product of the tv poker explosion that educated anyone interested just enough to make them think they can play high stakes for a living because they win a 10/20 game at the local pub or at home. its a lot diff when your mortgage payment depends on your weekly winnings and your kids arent even fed. those guys are a different breed and few and far between. tiger has won what? the last 5 of 7 majors or something? No way one guy in poker will win 5 of 7 wsop's main events even if playing the same field. Remember Opens in golf are open to anyone and everyone if you are good enough, so their field consists of basically the entire world. If someone doesnt realize luck is such a larger part of random cards then well, no need to waste your time. the real question is what number of hands must a true professional play before randomness (luck) becomes a non-factor to see an eventual profit even with the worst of luck. Well, there are so many variables since no situations are exact and you can never really play any hands exactly the same unless it so happens to be the exact players for the exact amount (and playing the exact ways) in the exact positions as the comparative hand. In other words, its never exactly the same so theres no way to ever put an actual number on it. tournaments are not a true indicator of the professionals because aces all in vs some idiot like you or me who plays 24 offsuit and cracks them and the pro is out. one hand does him in. if he was in a ring game he'd crush you over a given amount of time as you are aware. the randomness involved determines what amount of time that will play out. no way to determine from a present tense. so basically, martian is right and the dude above is just an actual fish who wants to be a poker pro like everyone else. once he quits his day job and grinds out a living playing poker get back to me. it ain't happenin unless theres a wsop--world series of pedro boom anytime soon. even then, not likely if you cant understand simple concepts like theres much more luck involved in a poker tournament than an individual sport like golf.
Actually, I am know around Houma and the Raceland to Golden Meadow(even the country club in Thibideaux) area as one of the best players in the area. Before the state police shut down all the cash games in local bars here, people would cash in before I sat down. Am I just lucky? Last year I earned over 50K dollars playing poker (online and offline). Do I do it for a living? No, it is a favorite pass time for me like Golf or fishing. I do honestly believe that poker is a skill game and not based on luck or anything like that. Now granted I didn't make it to the WSOP this year due to my son being sick. However, god willing, I will be there next year and if Brett allows, I will link my siggy to my blog so ya'll can follow my progress. I also want to make a few WPT events in the next year since my son is doing alot better. If you asked Daniel Negreanu if poker was more a luck game or skill what would his answer be? Also, my offer is open to anyone who believes it's more about luck then skill. Simply pm me and I will send you the details and locals of our home games here in this area.
i agree, and this is the answer i do not know. i mean, there are just an enormous amount of factors. like if you are lucky and have trip aces, that is awesome. but it is even better if two other guys have trips as well and are staying in with you. and each hand has lots of variables you can only slightly control, so i think it takes a whole ton of hands (and i mean really really lots of hands) before you can figure out who is the best. maybe if you made a list of people who have won 5 or more massive tournaments, now you are talking about the true masters, but think of how many thousands upon thousands of hands it takes to separate the wheat from the chaff. and still any of these guys could be beat by a chump! i play a little poker, and my style is to wildy go all in at random times, and it is fun and i can sometimes beat much better players with it, and they get really angry about it. and i realize that in the long run i can never win like that. but depending on exactly how crazy i get, the long run can take a long time. being terrible at math, i dunno how long exactly, but long enough so that i realize that i can crush vastly superior people with dumb luck on a regular basis. (when i use the word "luck", i mean literally "chance", i am aware that luck does not exist)
you dont have anything to prove to me. No one ever said it was more luck than skill just that it plays a much larger factor than an individual sport such as golf. thats a fact and even if you're not a mathematician just add up the winners like martin said. You disputing him makes you look rather uneducated on the game you're claiming you excel which is well, contradictory at best. I've played in many tournaments, ring games etc and have made a lot of money as well but im in no way a professional. I could largely supplement my income if i played for blood i assume and have at one point but i now occasionally play because i enjoy it when i have free time. Its too stressful to play for huge stakes and not enjoy it if its not your living. And make no mistake, if you do this to pay the bills its more stress than you can imagine. I've known people who gave up everything to give it a shot. the money isnt worth grinding out that lifestyle. Not only must you be crazy disciplined its crazy hours in a lifestyle around hookers and alcohol. Id prefer to have fun playing for a nominal amount and still able to enjoy the hookers and alcohol as well.
Well, as someone who has played since before the movie 'Rounders' and since before Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP. I believe that my game is up there. I have no intentions of wanting to play professionally. Mostly for the reasons you have stated. I enjoy the game and as with any game, I would love to play on the circuit to see how I could do against the best players in the world. If you played golf and believed to be at the top of your game. Wouldn't you want to go up against Tiger Woods? That's my feeling about poker. I have several business that make me plenty of money. All of them working from home and giving me the time to enjoy life. Part of that enjoying life involves traveling around and playing golf all over the country. Playing poker, fishing, hunting etc..etc. I just happen to believe that in my exp with poker that over time, a skilled player has an advantage. Thus the whole point of this thread is that poker is not a game based on luck as much as roulette, slots etc..etc. For poker to be grouped with that and banned is wrong to me. Can a skilled roulette or slots player consistantly win? Can someone be a skilled bingo player? Skilled scratch off or lottery player? Those are games based on luck. The last comment I will make about poker being more luck involved then skill is this. If you asked Daniel Negreanu, Doyle Brunson, Jesus Ferguson etc...etc. This question "Is poker a skill game or a game based on luck?". How would they answer it? When I started this thread, I had no intentions of getting into a debate about the statistics behind poker. That is not what this arguement is about. The arguement from politicians is that online poker and other online casino games is a bad thing? How so? Because our government chooses to ban something rather then tax it and regulate it. That, my friend, was the point of this thread. To alert people to the freedoms that are constantly being taking away from us in this supposedly free country. Do people do anything about it? Most don't, they might complain at a local bar, or on a forum. When will this end? Fact is great people made this country to be what it once was. It took less then 80 years for all of that to be destroyed. Are we really a free country? How much of our personal liberties has to be taking away before people have enough? Are Americans to lazy to do something about it? How long will big brother continue to screw us over, before we as a people stand up and do something about it?
that is definitely the main focus of it all. The blatant erosion of rights is pretty scary. Im sure every generation felt it was bad in their day as well but it would be nice if it slowed or stopped somewhere along the way. today would be a good time to start but the government seems is expanding at a greater rate than the universe. i cant think of many things worse.
