Here is how Bush wins with 285 WITHOUT winning Ohio or Pennsylvania. Win Florida (27) + (Wisconsin (10) OR Minnesota(10)) + Michigan (17) + Colorado(9) + Arizona(10) + Alaska(3) + Idaho(4) + Nevada(5) + New Mexico(5) He could also lose both Wisconsin AND Minnesota AND (Nevada or New Mexico) and still finish with 270. And Iowa(7), Hawaii(4), and New Hampshire(4) are still in play for Bush as well. In really good shape.
This makes a big difference from a filibuster & committee standpoint. Even though he voted with the GOP a lot, the party affiliation does come into play.
The most obvious tie situation would be: Current Bush = 209, Kerry = 199 Bush wins: FL, WI, CO, IA, AK, and NH = 269 Bush would lose: OH, MI, NV, MN, NM, NV, OR and HI
Ohio Precincts Reporting: 53.28% Office Candidate Party Votes % Of Votes President/Vice President Bush, George W. Republican 1,574,921 52.31% Kerry, John F. Democratic 1,416,525 47.05%