(Official) Hoops Post-Season Tourney Watch Thread

The reason we improved this year is because of the new talent (Hickey, Hamilton, JOBIII). To be consistently good, year-to-year, we can't afford to rely on new players to carry the team every year. If they come in ready to contribute, then great. We need this year's main contributors to take charge and allow the new guys a chance to get comfortable and improve until it is their turn to lead the team.

Turner's scoring avg dropped 3 pts this year. That kind of stuff shouldn't happen. Turner is a potential 17-19 pts/gm player the next 2 seasons. This year, I was expecting 12-15 pts/gm.

Next season there could be one position open for competition. Either the 2 or 3, depending on how the recruiting class shakes out. I'm hoping Morgan steps up and allows Stringer to come off the bench. I like Stringer, but we need more height at that position. If we land Coleman though, I expect Turner to move to the 2 spot. Stringer could then back up either guard spots. Now, if Turner has another down year, we could possibly see another starting spot up for grabs.

If we get some of the recruits being talked about, then next year could be really exciting!!! :geaux:

 

You're describing deviations from an established norm. There will be years when UCLA doesn't go to the big dance, just like there are years when LSU football doesn't make it to an upper tier bowl, and years when LSU baseball doesn't make it to a regional. But those are exceptions, and aside from spoiled malcontents, serious fans aren't calling for Miles' and Mainieri's heads when that happens.

LSU making deep inroads in the NCAA tournament, on the other hand, IS the exception in what has been an otherwise lackluster 15-year stretch. There are a good number of fans calling for Trent's head right now, and you'll get no argument from me that it's a ridiculous position. I've also seen a good amount of reasonable skepticism--from fans who have actually watched this team play--about their potential upside going forward, and I wouldn't dismiss it all summarily as uneducated.

To be perfectly frank, LSU is in the position of selling what is at the moment a mediocre basketball product in a football state, to a fan base whose last fond memories of the program happened 20 years ago. That's a tough sell, and a lack of consistent success in the interim is germane to that problem. I won't even attempt fo justify the shameful turnout in NOLA, I'm only explaining the psychology.

I probably could, and should, start an entirely different thread on this when the season's over, but if we're going to bash fans on perceived unrealistic expectations, then what exactly are "reasonable" goals in the near term (say, 2-4 years)? I keep getting the feeling from die-hard Trent fans that the metric for success in a given year is a bit fungible, like trying to nail jello to a wall. There were a number of fans before the season talking a tournament run this year. When it didn't happen, either the goal posts were moved back (young team, always next year, at least there's the NIT), or they held firm and were told they had unreasonable expectations. I'm curious to know where everyone stands.

My goal for this season was for LSU to finish roughly in the middle of the SEC pack at a minimum, and that minimum has been met. My position is Trent is our coach and all LSU fans should support him and the team fully, and I certainly do. You will never see me pull for a loss to justify firing him. That doesn't mean I'm not skeptical about the ceiling for this team, but a 20-win season with a lower seed in the NCAA's is a realistic goal, IMO. Hopefully, a good showing in the NIT will be the start of some positive momentum.

 

These comments don't address the real problems with LSU basketball:

1) Trent Johnson doesn't have the personality to promote this program to where it needs to be
2) The kids don't play well consistently
3) Trent doesn't appear to coach offense or have a real offensive game plan
4) Trent isn't able to lock down the best players in the state

The question is not "has LSU improved this year" but it should be "Can LSU be a perennial contender in the SEC and in the NCAA under Trent Johnson". The answer is no, in my opinion.

 

Ok, let me try to address many of the points above in this diatribe.

First, to Emeritus and Turner... does Antonio Hudson ring a bell? While it certainly isn't expected, players sometimes do seem to "stagnate" for whatever reason. Hudson had a promising freshman year only to struggle a little bit in his sophomore year. Largely this can be due to player personnel and team dynamics and what was asked of him, but also to the player. I personally think that Turner struggled at times with his defense, and forced the issue with his shot--it's sometimes tough to be the "man" only to not be the next year, so it may take him some time. Take him in his later part of the year, when he (like Stringer) learned to take it hard to the basket and not force the issue and let the game come to him, and you can start to see more of what he can do. Contrast that though, with what you saw from Stringer. Stringer was more consistent, turned the ball over less and shot a better %. He may be the one that improved the most, despite alot of negativity from fans who said he was too short and slow to play in the SEC.

So, let me address a point you make and dolemite. I think what can be frustrating for folks analyzing basketball, much less sports, is finding the "root cause" for struggles or "inconsistency". What irritates me a little bit is this baseline negativity, whether it's around Trent's "recruiting" or his "coaching". As someone said earlier, if you win, it's because you've got talent, but if you lose, it must be the coach's fault. If a fan wants to discredit the coach, he talks about the players being great and winning in spite of the coach. Or, if the coach is loved, then it must be the players' "lack of execution" that leads to failurs. What I think the uneducated fan might not appreciate it is it's really a combination of both, right? And, what does irritate me is when critics say, Trent "can't recruit", but then on the other hand they say, well "of course" we're better, because we added Hamilton, O'Bryant and Hickey! The reality is Trent can recruit, otherwise, he wouldn't haven't signed a McD-AA, a 7 foot transfer from Iowa State, and a Mr. Kentucky in the Spring period. All had other offers. So, yes, we're better from just having better players... we got a semblance of a balanced game (we could go inside or out) and we got someone at point who ran the team, reasonably well, considering he's a FR.

So, if you believe Trent, "can't recruit", then the fact that he won games, you'd have to say that Trent did a reasonably good job coaching them, right? When you look at the "talent" metric, look at who made the All-SEC team, as voted on by coaches--at least some semblance of an "objective" measure. LSU had one second teamer, Hamilton, to go along with one All-SEC FR, Hickey. This is in addition to last year's All-SEC FR, Turner. That's probably right in the Tennessee range (each with one 2nd teamer, and one All-FR). In contrast, each of UK, FL, Miss St and Vandy had 2 first teamers, and FL, KY, and Miss St had either additional 2nd teamers and/or All-Frosh members. So, did "talent" win or coaching? I'd say by this metric, it's no wonder fans in Starkville are crying... perhaps the third most talented SEC team in Miss St, finished a spot above LSU. That said, Vandy, Bama, Ole Miss, Auburn, USC and Arkansas had NO All-Frosh candidates. LSU with 2 in the last two years, and is that a good sign of the future? Is Trent recruiting or not?

So, if the players and coaches that LSU had were "average" in the SEC, did they overachieve or underachieve? Were they consistent or inconsistent? Were expectations reasonable or unreasonable? I believe LSU was picked by the media to finish 8th. They finished 8th. Were fans unreasonable then, expecting LSU to finish in the top 4? Obviously, then, the fans were unreasonable and not the team, right? Now, I agree, this last two weeks hurt, because LSU did have a chance to finish as high as 4th. Then, everyone would be singing Trent's praises, right? (maybe?). But, nevertheless, that's part of the year-to-year unpredictability of basketball. And, that's why it's fun to watch. I think on the topic of expectations, I posted last year that expectations should be a 18+win season and NIT, or 20+win season and NCAA--that frankly is what should be the goal of a "consistent" program, right? To make post-season play year in and year out and be in the top 30% of college basketball. I posted above what Trent did in each of his schools after the "turn-around" year for this dose of perspective. It takes time to build a program, it takes time for young kids to get better, and yes, experience and smarts leads to better play and dolemite's holy grail, "consistency". But, year in and year out, new players come in and you have to develop that team chemistry again every year. You hope that talent gets better and existing players get better. Why does Calipari's system work, and only his system? Because it's UK, it's a pinnacle of college basketball, which leads to Calipari ($$) at the helm, which leads to 4 or 5 McD AAs signing with them each year, and Calipari, teaching relatively simple systems--dribble drive offense, and man to man defense--he just has to simply teach really talented kids the basics--does that make him a good coach or is he just living on his recruit's talents? I see Trent's system much like I see Kevin Stallings system at Vanderbilt. 3-4 year kids, who are good, but maybe not getting UK offers, who are fundamentally sound and smart... and, well, can that work? Yes, it did this past weekend.What are realistic expectations with Trent at the helm of LSU? I would say, at this stage, in an expanded SEC of 14 teams (and let's not discount the fact that a very good Missouri team, and another now "middle of the pack" team in A&M join next year), the year in and year out goal of LSU should be to be in the top 6 teams in the SEC and make the NCAAs every year or most years. After that, everything is gravy. If Trent keeps recruiting 3 or 4 players a year, like he did in 2010 or 2011, I believe that IS achievable. What do others think is a reasonable expectation for LSU in basketball? Deek, to challenge UK every year for the title? If so, then maybe you should start donating to the basketball fund to outspend half of the SEC that's already outspending you right now.

So, Deek, to your points. Consistency comes with experience--Hickey and Hamilton, your primary players were first year players—but see above on consistency. I think on your other points, there are some nuanced discussions to be had. Recruiting, I addressed somewhat above. I think there is this continued fallacy that you can only win with LA players. We've talked about Gathers in other threads, but if Trent signs a big man like Norvel Pelle or brings in a kid like Justin Hamilton, am I really that upset that Gathers chose to go somewhere else? Now, I do agree, he's got to bat a reasonable % on good LA players. He signed Malik Morgan, and he signed an All-SEC FR PG last year which made Javan Felix go elsewhere. What grade are you going to give him? Next year, he certainly is scouting (and yes, he’s going to games, for Xsake!) Martin, Damian Jones, Jarad Sam, and other LA players. Why aren't we asking why they aren't wanting to stay in state and go to the flagship school in the state? Especially when Trent's track record of getting kids to the pros is as good if not better than some of these guys they're choosing to go and play for. I for one think LSU fans should shower kids like Morgan with praise, rather than bash 'em if they miss their free throws or have a bad game in the state playoffs. I do hope that Martin, Jones, Victor Craig and others will choose to stay in state and continue the progress here. Imagine if someone like Martin simply said, yes, I want to go to LSU this summer or this fall... it would have the snowball effect of calming all of this "can't recruit" business. But, if he doesn't, I'm perfectly happy with signing the Mr. Kentucky, Mississippi POYs, and other good players from the South who do want to come.

Lastly, this "personality" thing cracks me up. I think the only thing that does hinder any LSU coach is how big of a man Dale Brown was. But, you tell me who you'd rather have had... Bobby Knight or Dale Brown? Certainly debatable. But, when Brown was getting "whipped" by a better coach in the NCAA regionals, with far LESS personality mind you, I don't think that Indiana fans were too sad about their coach not being able to entertain a crowd. Trent is a no-nonsense guy who eats, drinks and sleeps basketball. I'd say he's somewhere in between Brady and Brown, certainly. He's not an ass who will stick his foot in his mouth like Brady, but he's not a charlatan like Brown. Doesn't matter to me, because at the end of the day, I look for basketball coach to (1) coach, (2) recruit, and (3) keep his kids on the straight and narrow and graduate 'em, in that order. Winning sort of takes care of itself. I just hope that LSU fans have been waiting for this "turning the corner" year, and next year, if Trent gets a reasonably good spring signing class, I think that attendance will be getting back to where it needs to be. Do I believe that Trent has the potential to get us there? Yes, given all of the past circumstances of this program and this AD. I do think that like last year, this spring recruiting and what he does in the offseason here to continue to tweak his program, will be a huge element to continue the progress and ensure his longevity at LSU. As we saw with Brady's recruiting missteps after the final four year, that essentially, did him in.

:geauxtige:bball::geauxtige:bball: BEAT OU!

 

The stuff I said about Turner was more to illustrate what it would take for LSU to be consistently good. It wasn't meant to be a shot at Turner. I definitely believe in his ability (hence the 17-19pt scoring comment) and I do understand sophomore slumps. LSU can't afford for Turner to be timid, though.

 

The baseline negativity is there because we are four years into the program, we have had 2 consecutive losing seasons before this year, and we failed to reach the goals that many established before the season which was for LSU to get to .500 or better in the SEC.

These expectations were hardly out of line. They were certainly doable given the inconsistencies in the West, and the fact that we were at 7-6 in league play with 3 games to go against Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Auburn, 2 of which we beat earlier in the season and the other at home. Bottom line is that LSU didn't get it done. Not only did LSU not get it done, LSU looked AWFUL in doing it by squandering a lead at home against Tennessee and getting BLOWN THE **** OUT on the road against a couple of poor to average teams.

I can tell you that I would not be on here calling for the head of a coach that finishes 10-6 and 4th in the conference, even if we lose to Florida in the first round of the SEC tournament (which would be the likely outcome).

What I am beyond frustrated with is the clear inconsistency that experienced players played with in 2011-12. The lack of heart from Ralston Turner. The terrible offense and percieved lack of a real gameplan (and in CTJ's words, "I ask them to play defense and then I let them do what they want on offense"). Stringer's poor ball decisions.

UK doesn't play with any real heart or toughness, which was evidenced on Friday. LSU should be able to compete with them periodically once we can put experienced players on the floor, but LSU's product won't be able to match talent for talent.... probably ever.

OK on Hickey, but not so much on a junior Justin Hamilton, and I really expected more from Turner and Stringer. Storm Warren is what he is. JOB III really was hurt by his midyear injury. I really expected LSU to be better due to what Stringer and Turner were able to do last year and I thought Hamilton wouldn't have disappeared down the stretch like he did in the last three games.

Felix was gone to Texas in his mind way before Hickey committed. When Bridgewater decides to go elsewhere.... what will the excuse be then?

I'm not buying this Norvel Pelle stuff. Not until he takes a visit... and that still wasn't enough for Arthur and Reynolds after a Final Freaking Four.

Knight. Without question... but not in today's college basketball. You need a player's coach. I don't think CTJ is it. I'm on record..... Shaka Smart and $2 million a year is what LSU needs.

 

Deek, you make some good arguments, but at the end of the day, alot of what you, and many other folks point to, are the intangibles... the assumption that a younger coach recruits better, the assumption that by a bad game there must be something about the coaching, and not just the ball bouncing the wrong way. Of course the flip side to all of this was what we heard when Daddy Dale was the coach--that he was a great motivator/recruiter, but he wasn't a great Xs and Os guy, that he couldn't coach. Remember a guy named Jeff Capel? Another hot young VCU coach, who was a player's coach. What happened to him?

Don't get me wrong, you can convince me that there may be better coaches out there. But, what I'm also saying is that LSU may not be the destination that folks think it is in terms of landing those coaches... it certainly wasn't under Brady. And, I'm also saying that you may be surprised at what you'll have to pay for a Shaka Smart to come to LSU.... here are some of the hot coaches out there for you. Some are saying that Shaka may command more than $2M.

Shaka Smart, and five other names that could surface quickly in Illinois coaching search | The Dagger: College Basketball Blog - Yahoo! Sports

But, I'm also saying, why make a change at 18-14, for a program on the rise, where Trent at $1.5Mper is leading you in the right direction. Certainly, there are some question marks--can he continue to recruit consistently and, as you are saying, can he win it all? I would agree that a key question is can he continue to build a staff, a reputation, a program that the best LA kids want to go to. As for whether he can win the big one, or go to the final four, when can you know that about any coach? Even Calipari hasn't won it all. But, I think I know what Alleva was looking at when he chose Trent... his records at Nevada and Stanford. And, he was probably looking for a program builder.

 

Let's be real, even if Alleva wanted to get rid of Trent, there's no way LSU is going to invest the kind of money it would take to bring a guy like Shaka Smart here. Alleva has made some questionable moves in his tenure, but getting Trent isn't one of them. He's a solid hire on paper and a good deal, both for what LSU was willing to spend and the track record he could bring to the table. We'll just have to wait and see what the future holds along with everyone else.

 

Recruiting comes with time. I know, Kentucky reloads every year, but they've been a national powerhouse every year for the last 50 some odd years....ever since Adolph Rupp prowled the sideline.

The system has to be in place and stable before any coach can recruit well.

Johnson is putting that system in place...and recruiting will gradually get better. Fortunately, in basketball, one or two recruits can make a huge difference. But the question is can one or two great recruits create a sustainable program?

I've been an Alleva critic in the past, but I like what he's doing at LSU with the basketball program...creating a sustainable program. I admit, I was scratching my head on the Trent Johnson contract extension, but I'm beginning to see the light now...it was necessary for building a program that will improve over time through stability.

Think in the long run. I bet five years from now, LSU will have a consistently good program that goes to post season more than half the time AND graduates most of it's players.

It'll be a program that will consistently attract a few top flight recruits every year or so.

It'll be the type of program that could attract one of the nation's elite coaches. But for that we have to hope that the entire league gets better as well. That's what happened with the baseball programs in the SEC after the '80s.

 

I think you make a good point here about the league and the recruiting. Look, I've said it before and I'll say it again, I am hardest on Trent for his recruiting... it's the lifeblood of any major college program, in any sport. While I think we can quibble about Trent's coaching, whether he focuses on defense vs. offense, or what he does against a press, a zone, there is one constant, which is better players usually leads to better results. What I do have issue with is the seemingly unobjective view of who he is recruiting as somehow "not up to par" with what is expected. If you're expecting LSU/Trent to recruit the same kind of players as Kentucky, or even the likes of UNC or Duke, then you're probably unreasonable. But, if you're expecting LSU to sign top 100 kids plus the occasional top 50 player from the deep south, good JUCO player or good international player, I think that's reasonable. You also have to mix in a good program player, and a player that Trent and staff have the foresight to see in terms of potential that may fall through the cracks on other schools' radars. There I think Trent's gotten a little bit of an unfair shake. Sure, he "let" guys like Markel Brown and Brian Williams sign with Ok State, but he also signed guys like Andre Stringer (who was a MS POY), and Ralston Turner (All-SEC FR) from AL. He also brought in a transfer in Justin Hamilton, who in sitting out one year, is All-SEC 2nd team, and I continue to say, is likely going to be another big that Trent sends to the NBA next year. He signs a McD AA in JOB, from Miss. Go back when LSU had signed a kid of prominence out of MS or AL, during Brady's tenure. You have to go back a while.

Here's the other interesting thing to watch. We've talked alot about conference re-alignment in football, but not so much in basketball. You don't think that the Big East benefited from going to the "big" conference? A team like USF should not, IMO, gotten into the NCAA this year, but they did based upon their late season run in the Big East. When 10 teams get in from your conference, you don't even have to finish in the top half. Fast forward next year to the SEC 14, with Missouri and A&M joining. Now, A&M has fallen on some tough times here as of late, but likely will be at least as good as the mid-tier teams in the SEC. Missouri, however, adds a real basketball school to your conference. Could Missouri challenge UK and Florida? Yes, likely. But, the tide floats all boats. Does the SEC next year get 6, 7 or 8 bids, with Missouri in the conference? Does the SEC all of the sudden supplant the ACC, Big12 or Big10 in terms of hoops supremecy? I would argue yes. It certainly does another thing--SOS all of the sudden becomes stronger... teams like Miss St don't fall out of the mix this year, if they finish 8-8. What happened to Alabama last year doesn't happen this year. I also think about this--how many bids did the Pac12 get this year? 2? This once proud conference in hoops are seeing their best recruits go to the WAC or Mountain West, or Big 12. Now, does Trent's experience and ties on the West coast give him an edge? Do kids like Norvel Pelle consider the SEC now to get on ESPN, to get a better chance at the Big Dance to showcase their talent for the scouts? Does a kid in East Texas, think a lot harder about joining LSU instead of going to Texas Tech or Oklahoma? These are macro-considerations in the landscape of college basketball that play on recruits' minds.

I do think that LSU will need to recruit well (both at home but also globally) in the landscape of a tougher conference. But, assuming they can, that's where the player development and coaching over time also make a difference. Incremental growth, and incremental improvements, as long as you're trending in the right direction, is still the overall goal.