You made the unsupported statement that Assad was winning, so I posted a map showing the territory held by the rebels is extensive and includes pieces within Assads lines, including Damascus. Did you forget that?
What is the date of the map? Most of what is shown the rebels holding is desert. The key cities except Aleppo are Assads.
Incidentally I never said that the rebels were winning the war, You said that Assad was winning the war and I replied . . .
What in the world makes you imagine that Assad is winning the civil war? The rebel forces are getting stronger and certainly are not being defeated in the field. They take more territory every day.
That was true till the summer when Assad launched his offensive but not true today.
Nobody is "winning" the civil war. But every day that the situation exists, Assad loses more and more prestige, power, and grip on the situation. North Vietnam lost every battle but won the war anyway. Assad loses as long as the rebels exist. Assad loses when he backs down from possessing chemical weapons. He's already lost the insurgency which has blossomed into a full-scale civil war.
You want more evidence? Assad is losing control of his own conscripted army.
Assad is losing the confidence of the Russians, which is why they sold him out.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/dec/13/assad-syria-war-losing-Russia
Nice try Red but that was written in December 2012 when the picture was very different. Assad was losing at that time. Did forget or expect us to ignore his offensive this summer where he started recapturing critical territory including the border town the rebels got most of their arms from. The situation has changed my friend.
Al Jazeera knows it, too.
Assad will not emerge victorious from this war. This was known as early as February 2011 when both the Director of US Intelligence and the CIA testified to the US Senate that Assad would not weather this challenge. If it is true that Assad will lose this war, why does he continue to fight?
Assad continues to fight for two reasons. First, he knows he cannot negotiate his way out of this war. In reality, a negotiated settlement in this case will be viewed as untenable by both Assad and the FSA. From Assad's perspective, any real offer to share power would be tantamount to a decisive defeat since demographics strongly favour the Sunni majority at the expense of his minority Alawite faction.
You can disagree with my assessments if you like, but you have not discredited any of them.
Well Red I agree that the assessments in December and February was as you say. However today things are different. The Iranians and Hezbollah have poured men an materials to help Assad and the balance has changed.
These are your assessments. Where is the evidence you demand of mine? See what I mean? Look, I will support any facts I state that you challenge, but my opinions and assessments are my own. Take 'em or leave 'em.
If you have read or listened to any news cast you would know this is accurate and rather than use out of date news you would use current as I did.
Obamas efforts at their worst cannot compare with the snowballing clusterfuck that was Bush foreign policy. And I disagree with our position in the world. We are still the only Superpower. We have bases, forces, and allies all over the Middle East. We control the sea lanes through which international commerce flows. Israel is not under siege and can take care of itself. Syria and Iran are no threats to us. Soon we will no longer have to provide lip service to Pakistan to keep open supply lines to Afghanistan. Arab springs are turning Arab threats inward instead of externally. Al Qaeda is a shadow of itself and is still being pounded constantly. China has practically no influence, Russia can influence only Syria (for now) and they have as many issues with neighbor Iran than we do. Iran could actually attack Russia. I simply don't think the US is weakened or in a poor position in the Middle East. I think we hold all of the cards. The old truism is still valid ...
Without the United states, nothing is possible. With the United States everything is possible.
Much of what you say above I agree with. We are the only superpower etc. No one can openly challenge us but that doesn't mean we have the ability to influence things in the ME in a macro way. You are right and as I said the ME is becoming a cauldron as it releases the pent up energies that have been suppressed for 1000 years.
I said there wasn't much but incompetence to W's foreign policy. However in a different way Obama has play his hand poorly. He has a very different concept of America's place in the world than all presidents from Truman through W. That as the world's superpower we had the responsibility to lead from the front. The west expected it during the cold war and the whole world after the fall of communism. Obama believes and has said the we should not lead and has acted on his words. That has left a vacuum that has hurt our place in the eyes of both our allies and our enemies.
To make that truism valid and effective we need to exert leadership. Obama hasn't and until he does we will continue to lose ground.
As do I.
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