But the delegates are doled out proportionally, and Obama is able thus far to keep Hillary from winning really big - she's had 20-40 point leads in the polls in many states, but he's been able to close the gap considerably by election day in most cases. If you look at the margin of victory in the states with elections so far, I think something like 9 out of 10 of the biggest blowouts were won by Obama. She has more of them verbally committed to her now, but I think there are still more than half uncommitted, and I suspect that most will go with the candidate who winds up with the most states, most regular delegates, and most votes - and that'll likely be Obama. Well, neither Obama or Clinton will get to 2,025 without super-delegates, so you're right - but will they go against the regular delegates?
On the Contrary, Obama holds a 100 delegate lead and Hillary Clinton is looking to steal the nomination, by trying to force the delegates from Florida and Michigan to be seated. Also, it will be very hard to overcome his lead right now. The only way she can win if she can persuade all of the superdelegates at this point, which she is trying to George Bush this nomination. If you dont believe me, read it yourself. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23153925/ Should the cracks in her support among those groups show up in Ohio and Texas as well, it could undermine her hopes that those states will halt Mr. Obama’s momentum and allow her to claim dominance in many of the biggest primary battlegrounds. With every delegate precious, Mrs. Clinton’s advisers also made it clear that they were prepared to take a number of potentially incendiary steps to build up Mrs. Clinton’s count. Top among these, her aides said, is pressing for Democrats to seat the disputed delegations from Florida and Michigan, who held their primaries in January in defiance of a Democratic Party rules. Mrs. Clinton won more votes than Mr. Obama in both states, though both candidates technically abided by pledges not to campaign actively there. Mr. Obama’s aides reiterated their opposition to allowing Mrs. Clinton to claim a proportional share of the delegates from the voting in those states. The prospect of a fight over seating the Florida and Michigan delegations has already exposed deep divisions within the party.
Mark McKinnon, a top adviser in Republican Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign, said on National Public Radio's All Things Considered that he won't stay with the campaign if Sen. Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee and inevitably would be the target of attacks in the general election. McKinnon, a campaign advertising specialist who helped get President Bush elected and re-elected, said that while he would support McCain "100%, ... I met Barack Obama, I read his book, I like him a great deal. I disagree with him on very fundamental issues. But I think, as I said, I think it would be a great race for the country and I would simply be uncomfortable being in a campaign that would be inevitably attacking Barack Obama. I think it would be uncomfortable for me, and I think it would be bad for the McCain campaign."
A very important endorsement is coming Obama's way and it could have a profound effect on Texas and Ohio election results: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080215/ap_on_el_pr/obama_union_endorsement Superdelegates are looking to change their votes to Obama as well: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080215/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_superdelegates Looks like the end of the road for Clinton.
That's what they said last summer about McCain. This one goes all the way to the convention, I think.
Good point, but there's one difference - McCain's issues were well before any primaries/caucuses. He had time (and a little luck) to get things straightened out in time for the early elections. Clinton is in real trouble, but it's not over quite yet. But I don't see how she can go into the convention with more regular delegates than Obama, more states won than Obama, or likely even more of the overall popular vote than Obama. In fact, it's possible that even if the voided-before-they-happened MI and FL elections were counted towards delegates, Obama will still wind up with more than Clinton in all 3 of those categories.
i think this is an important fact but i interpret it differently. the superdelegates want to win and see clinton's advantage in the electorate heavy states as an advantage in the general. i happen to think that obama would be more likely to win the general than hillary though because he will get more moderates than she would.
Adjustments to the count as follows: CNN: Obama = 1262 Clinton = 1213 USAToday: Obama = 1280 Clinton = 1218 Some superdelegates starting to change their vote over to Obama.
Between Hawaii and Wisconsin later today, there are 150 delegates up for grabs. I project a 90-60 split in Obama's favor. He should win Hawaii quite easily and probably finish anywhere from 55-45 to 60-40 split in Wisconsin. So he should be up almost 100 delegates after today. Texas is now showing a statistical dead heat in Texas. That's terrific news for Obama. If he wins Texas, the nomination is all but assured to be his. That would be way too much momentum to overcome for Clinton.
I have a confession - I have a crush on Michelle Obama. She will truly be a FLILF if her husband wins.
