He will never hold it long without firing a shot. There is significant Ukrainian pushback. There could be a fight between Ukrainian and Russian military forces. There could be guerrilla warfare as in Chechnya and Georgia. Many things can happen. We can implement suspensions and sanctions in any circumstance.
I think he will push it as far as he can. He will annex Crimea and push into eastern Ukraine till the US and the west push back hard enough. President Obama's first ambassador to Russia a Mr Beryle just said he believed Putin has factored in the G-8 and some sanctions as worth the cost. Yes the Russians depend on trade more than they did as the Soviets but so does Europe depend on Russian gas. We need strong leadership from the president on this to stiffen Europe's backbone. One suggestion is to in addition to suspending Russian membership in the G-8 & G-20 it to accelerate NATO admission of Moldavia, Georgia. Also put pressure on his fellow thugs the oligarchs who support him by canceling their travel privilege and freezing their assets. Red is right that Putin has the greater risk if he has ultimate failure of his move but I suspect he is playing his chips carefully and will use his move to strengthen his position. It will be interesting to see what happens.
One thing Putin's actions have done is to reduce the political bickering between R & D. Dick Durbin & Lindsey Graham were just on CNN and they were in deep agreement as to the importance of this event and that the Russians cannot be allowed to do this without serious consequences. Infact the moves I noted above were those put for by both Graham & Durbin.
From Russia's standpoint, what reason is there to push farther in the Ukraine? Unless the Ukraine nuts up and pops off shots, this will likely end with Crimea being under Russian control. That is where the majority of the pro Russian support is.
I would think that logically a sovereign nation wouldn't allow foreign troops to take up shop, but that's just me. Now Ukraine is at a clear disadvantage.
