North Korea is going to be a tough problem to solve unless Russia and China at some future time agree to sanctions. Without their consent or abstention we do not have a ghost of a chance of getting sanctions passed by the UN. Since Korea has no exports to speak of, any sanction would have to involve imports, which would cut them off economically from the rest of the world. That would be very painful for NK. It may be too late for military action because Korea is now a nuclear power. Even though they probably have just a few nuclear warheads at most and is no match for American nuclear might, the very fact that NK has nuclear warheads changes the military picture considerably. In all honesty, I don't think there is much that they can do with their warheads. They have shown that they do not have a delivery system that represents a realistic threat to the U.S. NK could easily attack Japan, but why? I think the last think NK wants to do is pull Japan into a conflict. Nonetheless, even superpowers are not disposed to attach another nuclear power. We should have struck a pre-emptive blow against NK's nuclear facilities as far back as 1998 when it became clear it had completely ignored the 1994 treaty. But Clinton did nothing and now it is Bush's problem.
Well, Slick Willie did apply some trade sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and made veiled threats, just like Dubya, so by "nothing" I presume you mean taking military action. So, let's expand on that shall we: 02/1958 — North Korean agents hijacked a South Korean airliner to Pyongyang. Eisenhower did nothing. 04/1965 — Two North Korean MiG jet fighters “attacked and damaged” a U.S. RB-47 reconnaissance plane over the Sea of Japan, about 50 miles east of the nearest North Korean coast. Johnson did nothing 01/1968 — North Korea seized the U.S. intelligence ship Pueblo with a crew of 83 officers and men off Wonsan in international waters outside the 12-mile limit claimed by North Korea; the crew was finally released in December 1968, but not the vessel. Johnson did nothing. 04/1969 — North Korean MiG jet fighters shot down an unarmed U.S. E-121 reconnaissance plane over the Sea of Japan, about 90 miles off the North Korean coast, resulting in the loss of 31 lives.Nixon did nothing. 10/1969 — Four U.S. soldiers were ambushed and killed by North Korean intruders near the southern boundary of the DMZ. Nixon did nothing. 12/1969 — North Korean agents hijacked a South Korean airliner YS-11 to Wonsan en route from Kangnung to Seoul with 51 persons aboard. Nixon did nothing. 08/1976 — A group of North Korean soldiers, wielding axes and metal pikes, attacked a U.S.-South Korean tree-trimming work team in a neutral area inside the DMZ at Panmunjom, killing 2 U.S. army officers. Carter did nothing 11/1987 — A bomb planted by two North Korean terrorists on a Korean Airline Boeing 707, with 20 crew members and 95 passengers aboard, exploded in midair over the Andaman Sea off the coast of Burma. Reagan did nothing. 06/1998 — In a show of defiance against the United States, North Korea declared its intention to continue to develop, test, and deploy missiles as a means of countering the alleged U.S. military threat. Clinton did nothing. 08/1998 — On August 31, North Korea test-fired a new 3-stage Taepodong-1 missile in an arc over Japan, causing angry reactions from Japan and the United States as a provocation that stoked tensions in Northeast Asia. Clinton did nothing. 12/02 – A North Korean ship en route to Yemen was stopped by allied forces in the Persian Gulf and was found to be carrying Scud missiles hidden under bags of cement.Bush did nothing. 01/03 – North Korea announced it will withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Bush did nothing. 3/2/03 – Four North Korean fighter jets intercepted a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane in international airspace over the Sea of Japan. Bush did nothing. 6/06 - North Korea launches a Taepodong-1 ICBM and six other missiles into the Sea of Japan. and Bush has done nothing. Nuclear weapons or not, no US president since Harry Truman has ever made North Korea pay for its provocations because going to war with North Korea means going to war with China. Bush likely won't either and North Korea will become the next president's problem.
What I get tired of hearing is how "hard diplomacy is". If it's so hard then just abandon it and start dropping some bombs. We know where they keep everything, for the most part. We've got the delivery systems sitting off of their coast. We know that diplomacy will fail. I say, just push the buttons and take out the threat. As soon as we launch, Bush should call china and russia and tell them not to even think about reacting. Problem solved. NK would be reduced to fourth world status, they're already not much better than third world, and china and russia would see that we do indeed have a spine. Come on Bush, pick up the phone, it won't hurt anything.
If Short Dong Il had splashed that ICBM off Hawaii or California, it might have been the kind of provocation that would have touched off such a response. The problem is that North Korea also has a 1,000,000 man army on the DMZ that would surely come south across the line. Of course, the South Koreans have a pretty big army there too, but we only have 50,000 ground troops in place. Since the Cold War, it has long been the plan to use tactical nukes to stop a full North Korean invasion. This is what makes presidents hesitate. It's a major escalation risking nuclear exchanges with China or Russia. None of them have thought North Korea worth it, so far. But since the silly bastard in charge of the place has started building atomic weapons and intercontinental missiles, he's beginning to make himself worthwhile to take out. On the other hand, the Chinese are starting to realize that they can't control Kim and that he might get them into a shooting war with the US that they would lose. They are in a position to engineer a coup and replace Kim with a dictator that is not certifiably crazy.
Shutting off trade with China as a way around this is not diplomacy and will not work. And counting on Russia and China to agree to sanctions and actually following through with those sanctions, is laughable. The deal with N. Korea last time was a UN-based effort. Iraq had sanctions on them since 91 that were a joke. For us rely on a UN accord to deal with this is another gamble not worth taking. Like I said, IMO China is the key and arming Japan with nukes is the only leverage that will work. In fact, unless we're prepared to go to war, arming Japan is the only leverage we do have. I think it is hilarious all of these people discussing taking the runt out or the missiles out in N. Korea. Like Cheney said, if you launch one missile at them, you better be prepared to launch many more. If we do anything militarily against N. Korea, the first thing they'll do is lob a few missiles at S. Korea.....then you've got your hands full. We should let this play out, and announce a huge military supply order to Japan and Taiwan and see how China likes that. IMO, within a week they'll have their little step-son in N. Korea to shut the F up.
You are taking my argument out of context. I was speaking to red about the economic impact of a war with China. I was not suggesting a trade embargo as a diplomatic measure.
This administration has learned the hard way to ask the question "And then what happens" before launching a military assault. This time they realize that a strike will have the consequence of as many as 600 conventional missiles hitting Japan. Or worse, an invasion of South Korea. Seoul the capital is 30 miles from the DMZ, the North Koreans could devastate the place with artillery and rockets without even leaving North Korea. Like Japan in WWII the Koreans could not sustain an extended war versus the US, but they could run wild for a few months until we could mobilize against them. And China might join them, like they did last time. Then it could become a potential nuclear war and world war. It ain't worth risking such a war over beligerant threats from Kim. But if he: A--splashes an ICBM close to US territory, B--attacks Japan, South Korea, Guam, or Okinawa where US bases are located, or C--gets caught transferring nuclear materials to terrorists Then a military response will be automatic and could range from a limited retaliatory strike on launch sites to a decapitation strike where we try to take out Kim personally. I don't expect an all-out air war to force a surrender as in Iraq and Serbia. Not unless and until we have a bloody big army on the ground in South Korea and some sort of non-escalation agreement with China. Right now Kim only has enriched uranium to make fairly crude and large atomic weapons unlike the tiny thermonuclear weapons we deploy. It is unlikely Kim has a way to deliver such a heavy warhead, except possibly by aircraft. But in time he will make them light enough to mount on his ballistic missiles and this FUBAR situation will only get worse.
I agree with all this, but most of these incidents were of a limited nature that did not endanger regional stability in that part of the world. The development of nuclear power by NK does, and the U.S. should have destroyed their nuclear facilities in the late ninties when it had become obvious that NK was in violation of the 1994 treaty and was developing a nuclear program.
