MLB Discussion '08

Discussion in 'OTHER SPORTS Forum' started by TigerBait3, Mar 31, 2008.

  1. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Matt Garza with a no-no thru 6th.

    Except the dumbshyt Texas scorer gave the Rangers a hit on what clearly should have been called an error on a charging outfielder.
     
  2. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    no so fast my "I don't watch baseball nearly as much as I watch basketball" friend

    A closer look yields:

    Rays:

    Percival...... 2-0 3.69 27/30 saves
    Wheeler...... 2-5 2.61 4/4 saves (in Percival's absence)
    Balfour....... 3-1 1.21 4/5 saves (in Percival's absence)
    Howell........ 6-0 2.37 2/2 saves (in Percival's absence)
    Bradford..... 4-3 2.28

    Total......... 17-9 2.42 37/41 saves (just over 90 percent)

    Angels:

    Rodriguez.... 2-2 2.86 46/51
    Shields........ 5-3 2.87
    Arredondo.... 2-0 0.92
    Oliver.......... 4-1 3.12
    Speier......... 1-5 5.33

    Total........... 14-11 3.03 46/51 (just over 90 percent)

    The Rays have the deepest bullpen in all of baseball. Rodriguez over Percival looks like a slam, but far from it. Percival just isn't sexy. I wouldn't trust Darren Oliver to make an appearance in post season, btw.
     
  3. clair

    clair Rockets

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    K-Rod over Percival is an absolute slam dunk. Not even close. The Rays bullpen may be a little deeper, but in the heat of the postseason, the Angels have more starters who can go six and Arredondo, Shields and K-Rod in 7-8-9 is much better than any three punks the Rays will run out there.

    2 things, though.

    1. Darren O'Day needs to be in the list for the Angels, probably over Spier.

    2. For someone who is criticizing my baseball watching skills, you need to learn to calculate ERA's. Just simply adding all the numbers and dividing it into an average is NOT how you calculate an ERA.

    So here is how your numbers SHOULD read.

    Percival: 39.0 innings 16 earned runs 3.69 ERA
    Wheeler: 51.2 innings 15 earned runs 2.61 ERA
    Balfour: 37.1 innings 5 earned runs 1.21 ERA
    Howell: 68.1 innings 18 earned runs 2.37 ERA
    Bradford: 43.1 innings 11 earned runs 2.28 ERA

    so 239.2 innings 65 earned runs = 2.44 ERA (not 2.42. You were close, but just by luck. Rarely does it work out that close).

    K-Rod: 50.1 innings 16 earned runs 2.86 ERA
    Shields: 47.0 innings 15 earned runs 2.87 ERA
    Oliver: 52.0 innings 18 earned runs 3.12 ERA
    Arredondo: 39.1 innings 5 earned runs 1.14 ERA
    Justin Spier: 50.2 innings 29 earned runs 5.15 ERA

    239.1 innings 72 earned runs = 3.12 ERA (not 3.03)

    Sure, by doing all the math myself, it just makes your point look stronger. But I just wanted to give you a little lesson before you talked about how much I do or don't watch something. :)
     
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I know how to calculate ERA. I just guesstimated it. And quite a nice guesstimate I might add. And it wasn't luck, I'm that good with numbers. You should know that by now.

    And thanks for supporting my point. K-rod over Percival being a slam dunk makes you sound silly. I gave the stats. The bottom line is the closing percentage.

    For instance, did you know Kevin Gregg has the most blown saves in all of baseball? Yet his numbers look really good. Until last night, his ERA was sub 2.50. Pretty impressive. Yet, when you get down to it, he sucks as a closer.
     
  5. clair

    clair Rockets

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    The percentages are deceiving in that a guy can have a 3-run lead, give up 2 runs (18.00 ERA) and get the save

    Where he can also have a 1-run lead, give up a run (9.00 ERA) and get the BS.

    So just strictly giving the percentages is not valid unless you dig deeper.

    But Percival = K-Rod? You for real?

    You mean to tell me that if the playoffs started tomorrow and you were a GM or a team that you'd feel equally comfortable with either one closing games in the 9th?

    Come on. K-Rod has been the best outside of Rivera and Jo-Pap in the past 3-4 years, while Percival was (and still is) licking wounds.

    Come playoff time, I'd much rather have the:

    a. better strikeout pitcher
    b. guy having arguably the best season for closers ever
     
  6. Lil Jules

    Lil Jules Founding Member

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    The Percival loss hurts. I wonder if this will trigger David Price being called up into a relief role? Seems like their best bet.
     
  7. clair

    clair Rockets

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    7-3 game with the Rays in the lead.

    2 outs and the bases loaded.

    The Rays walk Josh Hamilton intentionally to bring home a runner.

    Let's see if this backfires.

    I surely hope so, because their strategy is ridiculous.

    with a 4-run lead, the best he can do is tie you.

    The chances of him getting a home run are probably 1-2% at best.

    The chances of him getting a hit are probably 30-35%. The chances of him getting out are 60-65%.

    If Joe Madden plays poker like this, I'd love to take his money.

    EDIT: The next batter K's, so the Rays win 7-4. Still a dumb strategy, though. If you play Russian Roulette long enough, you'll eventually die.
     
  8. Lil Jules

    Lil Jules Founding Member

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    Pretty sure Buck Showalter did this several years ago against Bonds. It worked then too.
     
  9. clair

    clair Rockets

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    He did.

    But if I am not mistaken, when he did it with Barry, it was a 3-run game, so Bonds was the tying run.

    Here, the worst thing that could have happened is a tie game.

    And besides, Josh Hamilton is a good player. He is no Bonds. When he hits 45 home runs, much less 73, then maybe. lol
     
  10. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Rays on the verge of being only 1/2 game behind the Angels.

    Up 6-4 over the Angels with two outs in the top of the 9th.

    That god-awful relief corps of the Rays trying to close this game out.

    Rays win tomorrow night and they once again own the best record in all of baseball (actually would be tied with the Cubs if they win tomorrow night as well).
     

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