LSU's chances at a BCS berth: a detailed look

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Nov 20, 2006.

  1. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Who the hell is "the hanni"?

    Yes, Mark May is a dumb shyt. I admit that. Is he "the hanni"?

    Salvo #2.....another dud.
     
  2. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    In all seriousness and matter of fact,

    Tirk, do you wish for Florida to lose to FSU and then beat Arkansas, as Skip does?
     
  3. Bengal Buddy

    Bengal Buddy Founding Member

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    Sterling job Islstl.
     
  4. dtg

    dtg Freshman

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    You easily want FSU to beat UF. That eliminates UF from any at-large possibility if they lose to Arky. If Arky wins, they're in Sugar Bowl. But an 11-2 UF team will be very attractive to the Orange Bowl since they get a crap ACC champion regardless of who it is.

    If UF loses to FSU and beats Arky in SECCG, then they get the Sugar Bowl, which is the same if they beat FSU and Arky to get to the Sugar Bowl.

    The worst case scenario for LSU is having Arky win the SECCG and UF a legitimate at-large bid even after losing the SECCG. I know the SECCG loser has never made a BCS bowl, but the exception could be this year because the Orange is in trouble with a non-draw ACC team coming their way. WVU is the least of the concern because they will take 11-2 UF over 11-1 WVU to sell tickets.

    - dtg
     
  5. TigerWins

    TigerWins Founding Member

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    A florida loss coupled with a USC loss and a Boise win might leave us out of the BCS. Many people aren't considering WV getting an automatic bid at #4 should those things happen. That would be death for an LSU BCS bid.

    A Florida loss would help LSU as long as USC beats ND or Nevada beats Boise.

    I think islstl's analysis is pretty accurate...
     
  6. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I understand exactly what you said. And it is all logical. So what you propose is a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. On one hand if Florida loses to FSU, it opens the door to the very real possibility that LSU will not even get a chance at a bid (and neither will Florida for that matter), given the OSU/Michigan/Notre Dame/WVU final BCS standing + Boise State winning logic that hands out all 4 bids automatically. On the other hand, should Florida beat FSU but lose to Arkansas, LSU would be left out in the cold in the Orange to Florida being a more attractive pick. My answer to that is it would only matter if we avoid the "tragedy" scenario I just spelled out, which means the Rose Bowl would select LSU as it's opponent vs. Michigan or USC. They get first pick to replace Ohio State (and possibly Michigan). The Orange Bowl would not have a choice to pick Florida by the time their chance came up.

    If you think the Rose Bowl would select Florida over LSU as its opponent vs Michigan or USC, then by all means go ahead and root for FSU today. I just can't see the Rose Bowl making that decision.

    Maybe I'm just a bit too confident in my Rose Bowl prediction. Maybe.

    If Florida beats Arkansas next week, then the FSU win over Florida can only hurt LSU's chances. So you may inevitably be doing much more harm than good in the end getting that FSU win today.

    FSU sucks so much, this talk is probably moot anyway.
     
  7. TigerWins

    TigerWins Founding Member

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    Little Herbie just said the Big East deserves two BCS spots over the SEC. He said WV deserves it over LSU.

    Yeah, the mighty Big East...:nope:
     
  8. upsizin

    upsizin Founding Member

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    I'm wondering how much of an agenda these bowl guys have... what I mean is, the rose bowl's gonna sell out regardless and everyone's gonna watch it...

    you think the pac10 or big 10 officials (whichever team usc/um goes) will have a say so in the opponent? What I'm saying is, UM plays OSU, does pac 10 step in and say they want WVU (an easier opponent) They win that game handily, michigan beats osu... and usc claims a shared title again?
     
  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I'm speechless.
     
  10. blindside517

    blindside517 Founding Member

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    Thats why you gotta say go south florida! go pittburgh and go syracuse today.
     

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