I modified this section (noting that Michigan must finish #2 in BCS): Scenario where LSU is guaranteed an at-large berth: {WVU loses to either South Florida or Rutgers} AND {USC must lose to either Notre Dame or UCLA} AND {Florida loses to either FSU or Arkansas} LSU would finish no worse than 4th in the human polls and 4th in the BCS (automatic at-large). The key component here is Michigan must finish #2 in the BCS and play for the BCS NC. If Michigan should fall to #3 in the BCS, they would garner the automatic bid. Even if LSU should finish #4 in the BCS, LSU would not get an automatic bid. The BCS rules allow for only 1 team to get an automatic berth that finishes either 3rd or 4th in the BCS, not both. If the USC loss is to Notre Dame (but USC in turn beats UCLA), then the USC loss would probably have to substantial (10 pts or more) to avoid USC finishing #4 in the BCS ahead of a #5 LSU.
Added in a clause for California as follows: 6. California: currently #18 in the BCS standings. Tennnessee will pass them in the BCS due to a boost in the computer polls (Cal plays a 1-10 team while Tennessee plays a 7-4 team). So that means Cal must pass 5 teams in the BCS. It's a long shot, but it could happen. They already got a shot in the arm with Boston College losing last night to Miami. That leaves 4 teams to lose out of this list: Texas, Oklahoma, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Boise State, Tennessee. California also needs USC to win and go to the BCS CG. If that happens and Cal ends up #14 or higher in the BCS, the Rose Bowl in all likelihood would pick Cal to play Michigan (traditional PAC 10 vs. Big 10 obligation kicks in).
Texas losing sucks. Cal's opportunity just looks a little brighter to steal that Rose Bowl bid. I hate UT. The one time I pull for them they fall flat on their face. Only thing Mack Brown could talk about was an official's call. Just win the damn game. You had no business struggling with this team at home.
Bump. Made some minor updates to my original post (paragraph involving California plus the very last paragraph of the entire post).
The definition of an at-large is that you do not win your conference, if you're from one of the 6 BCS conferences, or you qualify under one of the rules the BCS has laid out to be an automatic at-large qualifier (e.g., Boise State finishing in the top 12 or Notre Dame finishing in the top 8). Michigan has already lost the Big 10 title to Ohio State. Ohio State is automatically in as Big 10 champs (altho technically they are in because they finished first in the BCS). Michigan, having not won their conference, has to go in as an at-large. 6 Major Conference champs (Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC, ACC, Big East) 4 At Large Bids If you look at it that way, Michigan can only fall into the category as at-large. Only 3 bids will remain after Michigan, regardless of what happens (i.e., Michigan #2 or #3). In other words, just because Michigan ends up in the BCS CG, they wouldn't take away the Big East champ's spot, for example, thus still allowing for 4 at-large bids. They would take up an at-large bid. I hope that clears it up. PS - When I first wrote up all the scenarios, I totally forgot about Michigan getting an automatic at-large. I had to go back and change a bunch of stuff. This is quite perplexing stuff at times.
i think you've confused yourself miring in the muck once again and we need florida to lose as skip said.
There is some merit to Florida losing to FSU. I don't discount that. If Florida should lose to Arkansas, it would be nice if Florida also lost to FSU, thus knocking them out of contention against LSU for an at-large. That's its one and only redeeming factor (mysteriously though, Skip doesn't even call for that to happen). But then LSU may not get that shot at an at-large should Notre Dame defeat USC. That's a risk I don't want to take, as much as I believe ND will get blown out. What I am not getting is should Florida win out, they go to the Sugar as SEC Champs. Should Florida lose to FSU and then beat Arkansas. Guess what? They sure as hell still go to the Sugar as SEC Champs. So go back and reread that section that speaks of Florida. It ultimately makes no sense. If Florida wins out, no harm no foul. But it sure as hell could help us with WVU's situation. IF YOU HOPE FOR FLORIDA TO BEAT ARKANSAS, THEN YOU MUST HOPE FOR FLORIDA TO BEAT FLORIDA STATE AS WELL. The only circumstance where the loss to Florida really helps LSU is if WVU loses one of its last 2 games. Again, is that gonna actually happen? Probably not. The downside of this scenario has much more chance of occurrence than the upside. That's why I choose Florida to win out. I choose to err on the side of caution, wanting Florida to hold that #4 spot, thus preventing WVU from getting an automatic bid. Now if I could see into the future and know that USC will win out, then hell yeah let Florida lose to FSU and then beat Arkansas (or whatever the hell Skip wants them to do). Anybody that can convince me otherwise, take a shot. Tirk's salvo was quite weak. I guess you just assume Skip knows of what he speaks of. PS -I don't have access to that crystal ball. Maybe you do.
no you were calling out the hanni and others for not having the capacity to see the big picture while overlooking the simple facts that UF losing offers the best BCS chance for LSU when its all said and done. dont backpedal now. its too late. step away from the calculator.
