I had TCU in the NCG from week 1....especially over Boise. My second team in the NCG has been blown out the water. Looking like it will be Oregon vs TCU at this point.
TCU is making a good jump in the computer polls while Auburn takes a hit with a non FBS team. TCU jumps Auburn for #1 in Billingsley and maybe Massey as well. Auburn will hold onto #1 in Colley, Anderson/Hester and Peter Wolfe. Oregon likely jumps to #1 in Sagarin, Auburn #2 and TCU #3. So from that angle, the gap got closed considerably. Still they need some help from the pollsters. If they get a lot of help there, they will jump Auburn. My guess is Auburn holds on for #2 come tomorrow, but TCU likely closed the gap in half.
Can't agree with that. I know this gets us into the age-old argument about which kind of system is better, bowls and playoffs, etc. But the BCS makes every weekend in college football important. The same is not true of the NFL, which is the most popular professional sport in this country. I'm a HUGE Saints fan. They are sitting at 5-3, and people are starting to write articles in the national press about them turning it on and getting back to the big game. Doesn't work like that in college football. You have to play your hardest every single week. Even the Saints didn't have to do that last year on their way to 16-3 and the Super Bowl championship. At any rate, the Oregon sports writers are hoping that Oregon blows up the BCS. You might want to follow their stories and see if you ultimately agree with their view. As for Ore. St. beating Oregon, I don't think it'll happen. Ore st. lost to UCLA on a last-second field goal tonight. They are now 4-4 overall and 3-2 in the Pac-10. Meanwhile, Oregon is destroying everyone. I know it is a rival game and anything can happen. I have lived out here on the west coast for far too long now. I've never seen Oregon this good and they have fielded some good teams. My hope is that we or another SEC team gets a shot at them in the BCSNCG. My feeling is that if anyone can beat Oregon this year, it is an SEC team. Especially one with a very strong defense.
Oh man, that would suck for ratings. Of course, die-hard football fans will still watch. Anyway, that matchup would be a helluva offensive game. Oregon has a tendency to start off slow, so TCU could get up quite a bit early on.
Likeliest road to a BCS national championship: 1) Auburn lose to Georgia or Bama 2) Oregon lose to Cal, Arizona or Oregon State Auburn loses the same week we would be beating a (top 10 hopefully) Arkansas on the road. The combo would be too much for pollsters not to place us ahead of Auburn. LSU would pass Auburn in every computer poll as well. In essence all we would need is for us to split votes with Auburn and finish in a very close point battle in both Coaches and Harris. LSU will probably jump Boise State with a win over Arkansas. LSU will already be significantly ahead of Boise State in the computer polls after today's results. The worst computer poll positioning we had in regards to Boise State was Colley, where Boise is #5 and LSU #9. Projecting just today's games has LSU jumping all the way to #4, with Boise barely ahead at #3. Let's not forget a very good Nevada team awaits Boise State at home at the end of this month.
The only way the BCS gets "blown up" is for an undefeated Big1T1en team getting left out of the game, since the Big1T1en commissioner is the biggest proponent of the bowl system. With Mich State's loss last week, that won't happen this year. The BCS conferences hold all the power, so all of the arguments about the NonAQ teams are irrelevant. An undefeated TCU team will probably be in the game if either Auburn or Oregon lose. I can see us jumping an undefeated Boise St if we get the opportunity to win the SEC. I have no idea what the Duck fans are talking about with comments about them "blowing up the BCS", since they will certainly be in the BCSNCG if they win out. The BCS is their friend this year. GEAUX TIGERS -- GEAUX DAWGS
So, Islstl, you and I had an exchange last week where you really could not see a realistic scenario in which LSU ends up in NC game. I posted the following: "That's why at this stage it is opinion and speculation. I can definitely foresee a scenario where LSU wins out, thereby beating the almighty Bama, and AUB losing convincingly to Bama, and LSU being the top rated SEC team and in the top 3. That scenario has LSU winning this week, and again against a few more SEC teams (Arky and Ole Miss), during which time they are inching forward in the BCS, esp given strength of schedule yearlong. When AUB is then exposed and loses to Bama (Bama would be out of the top 10 since they lost to LSU weeks earlier) in convincing fashion, and LSU at that point is top 6, Auburn would slide behind LSU. LSU would then be top 5, perhaps top 3, depending on other complicated, less anticipated scenarios, going into the SEC CG. Once we win the SEC CG, we are then top 3 as other teams falter in their CGs. Simple really. The key is AUB plays Bama late, and they have no window to recover and build back up, unlike LSUs loss to Auburn, in which they have weeks-months to get back in the saddle." Only difference is that you are now "projecting" LSU to be #5 already, so we will have less ground to make up during this time period. Still think it is not realistic? Now, I will say Oregon looks strong, but they could certainly lose to Oreg. St. The wrench will be BSU and TCU, as far as where LSU ends up if we actually get to and win the SECCG.
