News Is coronavirus a wild card?

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Winston1, Feb 24, 2020.

  1. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    Key lime?
     
  2. mctiger

    mctiger RIP, and thanks for the music Staff Member

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  3. shane0911

    shane0911 Helping lost idiots find their village

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    He said Boston not Key West
     
  4. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    I know but he said green pudding. I don't think clam chowdah is green. I ain't some key lime pie the other day and I wasn't even in Florida.
     
  5. dachsie

    dachsie Veteran Member

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    CajunlostinCali likes this.
  6. onceanlsufan

    onceanlsufan Founding Member

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    I get so tired of all these people looking for their 15 minutes of fame. Pp. listen to me .... we r all going to die, this thing is the worst thing ever.

    I’m not taking away from the fact that we are in uncharted territory, but the coverage is overblown. It is understandable, as mentioned in Dr Kevs article, we don’t really know what we are dealing with. But, we have data on the ground. In Italy, the worst hit nation to date, 0.04% of the population has been infected so far. The mortality rate is pretty high at 7%, but this has to be balanced by the % infected population.

    Dr Kev insinuates this is so much worse than the Flu and gives a statistic. But statistics are the biggest liars of all. Overall, ok, COVID19 has mortality rate around 2%, and that looks pretty bad compared to the Flus measly little 0.1-0.2%. But when you consider that 10-15% of the population has been or will be infected by the Flu, whereas at best less than 1% of the population will be infected by COVID19, the “risk” picture looks quite different. To date, here in the US:

    34 million+ cases of the flu, 25,000+ deaths. That is 11% of the population infected with a death rate of 0.8%.

    Predicting out for COVID19, (0.004*300 million) = 120,000 cases at a current death rate in the US of 1.8% would mean if the US goes the way of Italy, at most 2160 people could die of COVID19.

    We have the data and stats to make decisions on this thing. At a steady rate of 20% spread, in two weeks, the US will have 38500 cases and 693 deaths. It’ll take 20 days at 20% infection rate to reach the 0.04% of the population being infected 120,000 and 2160 deaths.

    One has to think about how probable it is that that will happen. China, with a population of 1.3 billion is reporting just 80k cases, equivalent to a 0.006% of their population. What is the likelihood that the US is going to have more cases than China? Granted, it is likely that China is under reporting, but even normalizing infections to Italy’s infection rate, China has 800,000 cases, with a mortality rate of 0.03% ..... not much different from the mortality of the Flu.

    So, is COVID19 worse than the Flu?, we really don’t know, and anyone who says it is at this point is a liar and serving to promote the current panic that is cleaning out grocery stores. I tend to think the opposite of his little quote will likely be the case. After the dust settles, we will be asking ... was it really necessary to destroy our economy, panic and buy up all the toilet paper? Meanwhile, the Flu this year, and it’s not a terrible Flu season will claim 30,000 lives. But all the Jim Acostas of the media will still be talking about COVID19.

    stepping down off of soap box. :) .... be smart.
     
  7. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    From what I have read Covid19 is not as bad as the flu for those people who have a mild case. The difference is there is a vaccine for flu and none as yet for Covid19.
     
  8. onceanlsufan

    onceanlsufan Founding Member

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    Yes, and what does that tell you?

    Flu ... has vaccine , 25000-30000 deaths
    COVID19 ... no vaccine , at most 2160 deaths,

    So .... tell me, just how great is that vaccine? Seems a false sense of security to me. The problem is, we are used to loosing 20-60 thousand people a year to the Flu. ... its like, who cares, it’s just another day in the neighborhood. But we are completely unaccustomed to losing 63 lives to COVID19. Its like when you drive down a road you’ve never been down before! Your senses are heightened, it seems to take longer ... it just “seems” more dangerous.
     
  9. CajunlostinCali

    CajunlostinCali Booger Eatin Moron

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    I don't know if you are responding specifically to the article she posted or just in general, but with respect to the article she posted, the main point being made is making attempts towards reducing the demand on health care facilities. Limiting the spread only gives health care facilities a fighting chance. Italy is the perfect example of where the infected population far exceeds the ability to care properly for those who need it. They are now having to make decisions with who should receive care against those who may survive without the care. Would you like to be considered for or against proper healthcare? I agree with the position the article makes for social distancing and taking simple precautions. Whether we agree if these are the correct steps to take doesn't take away from the fact that it is the correct approach. The results from knee jerk reactions by the population should not take away from that either.

    England is considering the herd method, so fuck it, everyone just gets sick, reach the peak quicker and return to the norm. That may be fine if we know a vaccine is in the pipeline, but the reality is this virus is proving it can reinfect, so hearding is likely gonna do more damage than good all while crippling their health care system. Not sure I wanna stand in line for that approach.
     
  10. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    I believe in the flu vaccine for reasons I have recently posted. I had 3 very bad cases of the flu in the 21 years between 1975 and 1996. I have gotten a flu shot every year since and now I haven't gotten the flu in 24 years.
     

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