News Is coronavirus a wild card?

Ummmm .... that’s not quite how death rates work. They are mortality based on the number of cases.

If we use NY as a model, assuming flatlined spread over the next 4 weeks, the percent of the population infected will be about 2%. (131000/19 Mill = 0.6 .. *3 = 1.8% of population). Applying that to the total 321 Million population, the Max total deaths using the model should be as follows.
0.5% = 32,000
1% = 64,000
2% = 120,000

But the reality will likely be less, as most of the population lives in lower population density. Further, even NY is showing signs of flattening and could begin to decrease over the next 4 weeks, which would pull the modeled numbers even lower. We are currently at 1000 deaths per day for the Nation. I think it is safe to say we will see another 14,000 deaths over the next two weeks, but I look for those numbers to rapidly fall after that. That would put us at a total of 24,000 deaths total. After modeling truly kicks in to account for the asymptomatic, I think we will find that mortality from COVID19 is much lower than predicted, but is highly contagious. You can bet there is currently more infected today than 356,000. Probably more on the order of 3.5 million. Of course, this all just academic.

 

JMEO .... but we could nip this whole thing in the bud for next year if we could convince the public to take a few measures.

1) get your fricken vitamin D checked in October. If it is below 50 ng/ml, get on supplement. Better yet, just start taking Vit D starting Oct 1 (2000-4000 units/day). .... background .. upon analysis of the 1918 Pandemic it was noted that many of the deceased had rickets, a sign of low Vit D, which may have contributed to the devastation.

2) get a tad healthier. Take your vitamins and minerals, zinc, selenium, etc, lose weight, eat healthier.

neither of the above will prevent you from getting sick, but they will decrease the likelihood you will die from it.

Then of course, wear a mask.

 

I know how they work, my numbers clearly are on the basis of everyone getting the virus and the current mortality rate which should never really be the case, especially the measures we are taking now. It is the extreme worse case and would never happen. But we will see how many actually end up getting it.

 

my favorite politician on earth boris johnson is in intensive care

 

Drive through sushi?

Anyone??

Bueller???

 

All good advise that people should follow, it should not be the law of the land.

 

Great points and I agree. Unfortunately that’s a lifestyle choice that too many aren’t willing or capable of making. When I owned my small electrical supply business one of my key employees smoked like a chimney and was very overweight and missed time due to sickness. He kept demanding more health insurance to cover his illness. I ended up letting him go because I couldn’t afford him.
I can’t go to Walmart because I’d harass the morbidly obese people especially those with children following in their footsteps.
I’m 68 and my health care costs are less than $500/year. I have great insurance but have never made a claim. Like you I take my vitamins eat relatively healthy and workout a lot. I’ve never had a flu shot or the flu etc etc etc. I understand that not everyone is a fortunate as I am health wise and need care through no fault of their own. They deserve all the help. However for the great majority who through ignorance or laziness don’t look out for their health I have little sympathy and little interest in supporting.

 

I agree......but those who don’t should be prepared to pay the consequences of their choice and not burden the rest.

 

Today cities are telling churches and businesses they must close, whether that is smart or not is not the question. The constitution is not a list of rights for us it is a list of prohibitions to the government. Nowhere and at no time has it been ok to suspend basic rights for the people. Everytime the government has tried it has gotten shot down by the courts If someone brings this up in front of the SC it will get shot down also. As well as it should.