So I guess the govt is going to be the contractor? I know as a private contractor I don't buy any materials for a job until the plans are final, bids are let, and I win the contract. So who is the "they" that you speak of? I don't think I would build a concrete plant on the speculation that I might get a contract. If I owned a train co. I would not build trains on spec for this project - what if my competitor gets the contract?
I'm telling you it will take five years to design, engineer, and get the property. And that's optimistic. During that time, no construction dollars will be spent. It may say nothing of the sort but all of the politicians are saying it and economists have all said we need stimulation now. If you can't see this is about the immediate future with all of the screaming by politicians and economists then I can't help you. Not really. I'm saying this bill needs to stimulate the economy for projects that can start of the next 6 months. That's why the money tied to transportation projects has time limitations on it. The entire bill should be focused on this as it was initially sold to us. Once that is accomplished, we go back and deal with 3-4 years down the road. This way, we can pick out the pork more easily. beyond 3-4 years doesn't matter. What good is a project that stimulates ten years down the road. By then we need a budget surplus and start paying down our debt. I disagree with you that this is a ten year issue. If it is, then we're toast. This bill is supposed to turn it into a 3 year issue.
Who said build on spec? Not me. What I said was that money can be spent on materials and equipment while design and land acquisition is going on. Rails and ties don't care where or when they are laid. If it's going to take 5 million crossties, the Prime contractor can issue subcontracts and start ordering them early--especially if the stimulus bill requests that all reasonable up-front spending be considered. Same with the trainsets. It takes time to build them, designs are already in the CAD system, and early contracts can be issued. Yes, grading the route and building the bridges is going to take a while to get going, but everything in the project doesn't have to wait and be done sequentially. As a contractor, you know that some efforts can go on in parallel and some things require early attention. I don't think the stimulus projects will be carried on "business as usual". There should be incentives to get the projects started quickly and keep them moving. And I disagree. Money will be spent upfront. It's not all about physical construction. Jobs for permitting and designing will be created. Engineers will be put to work. Lawyers will be retained. Environmental remediation projects will be conducted. Contracts for long-term procurement items will be granted, you can't buy a half-million sections of special high speed rails overnight. Plus this project is already several years beyond the "good idea" stage. It has been subject to a lot of planning and state/community involvement for years already. Plus California has already spent $45 million to fund the environmental impact study. Victorville–Las Vegas high-speed train plan gains steam HIGH SPEED TRAIN FROM CALIFORNIA TO LAS VEGAS Start in 6 months is fine. But if we insist that they be completed in a year then we're not going to have any infrastructure completed at all in this bill. Building infrastructure takes time, as you have already pointed out. The Vegas rail project is not without issues, but it beats the hell out of pouring more money onto our failed auto manufacturers.
That was my point Red. A contractor has to be awarded the project. Typically that doesn't happen until the planning is done. On huge projects like this, it can be divided into smaller projects that can happen quicker, but a contractor still has to be named for each of these. Until that is done, none of the ordering will occur.
Reds been in academia too long. There isnt going to be a single hire nor a single thing built until a contract is let. This is government work. Nobody is going to speculatively build or manufacture anything for a government contract until all the i's are dotted and t's crossed. Just letting the design portion of a contract will take ages and will not employ new people. Those companies qualified to bid on this kind of government work will already be in the industry doing other government jobs.
Yep...and when a company is not selected they have a complaint process. All they have to do is claim discrimination and the process will stall. They need no justification to start the process.
Perhaps, but I worked in a construction engineering firm right out of college. You're not going to talk me out of having an opinion. Trying to discredit me is a poor excuse for an argument. Obviously, but a prime contractor is hired quite quickly on his proposal. He then subcontracts the job and work begins on several fronts, as I already pointed out. Some of which can be started quite quickly and aren't dependent on a final design--surveying, permit acquisition, right-of-way, environmental remediation, and lots of material and equipment acquisition. Rails, ties, overhead catenaries, and power lines are standard design and are a known quantity per mile of rail. High speed train cars and engines can be ordered before a line is complete and in fact they must be. They are not mass-produced items. Design will not take as long as you imagine. Planning and environmental permitting has been going on for three years already. High speed rail lines have been in operation in Japan and Europe for many decades and is mature technology. It will run along existing railroad rights of way across the desert which offers few engineering obstacles. The biggest job will be constructing a grade through Cajon Pass which already has two double-track freight railroads and an Interstate Highway going through it. but that is only 12 miles or so, the rest of the route is easy. Well, then there is no recession in the engineering and construction industries then. Who do you think you are kidding?
I certainly don't think we need projects to be finished in a year or even two or three. Just started immediately, not in three years. That's the only point I was making. And please, don't suppose I insist on giving money to big auto. You're certainly right that this is better than that but it's not better than shovel ready projects that can start in 120 days around the country.
Definitely, but not enough in my opinion. One other note. Did you ever think a president could sign a 787 billion dollar spending bill and the markets would tank 300 points on the same day? It's definitely been a year or so of firsts.
