It has weakened further as of the 1PM update. Winds are down to 115 (from 120 earlier). Forecast still predicts the storm to balloon back up to a Cat. 4, but the weakening is a good sign.
They predicted it to balloon back to a Cat 4 as soon as it left Cuba...it has been off of Cuba and it is not getting stronger...but weaker.Now it is heading into a cooler eddy of water. So exactly when and how is it supposed to "strengthen"??????
They don't know. They never do. Everything is simply guessing. We need a damn weather control machine and no one will ever have to worry about this crap.
Good to know you made it back ok. Okie texted me this morning about 630 that she was on the basin bridge hope she has made it safely as well.
Dont be fooled by the winds. Yes they are weaker that is true, but what you need to look at is the pressure. And at 10am the pressure was at 962mb it is now at 960mb which is a sign that it is starting to get reorganized and strengthen. Looking at the sat loops it does appear that the drier air that was weakening it this morning is starting to show less signs that it is being pulled up into the center of circulation. While it is getting into the "cooler" waters those cool temps are way beneath the surface. Surface temps for the gulf are still in the high 80s low 90s.
Well, here I sit, relocated to Natchitoches, hopefully only for a few days. If anyone has an extra prayer they're not using, I'd really appreciate a wish that Morgan City is spared a bad storm surge. Anyone know where Nutriarch bugged out to?
Well, certainly we'll take 115 mph winds and 960mB pressure vs 150mph winds and 940 mB pressure, but we are still talking a serious threat no matter which weather site you feel is more genuine and less dramatic about their presentations. The angle the storm is to make landfall, and subsequent surge, wind damage, and flooding that may ensue are what is worrisome, not the exact statistics of the storm. Anyone in the immediate path of this storm, not taking it serious and not taking precautions to evacuate are taking chances that are simply unnecessary and foolish, IMHO. Let's hope for the best for everyone regarding life and property, but having lost nearly all of our property in Katrina, I can tell you that I am thankful that my family is healthy and still with me. In the end, that is really all that matters. Why take chances?
I hope you aren't assuming that I am not taking the storm serious, or that I am not taking precaution...or that I am foolish. I am just trying to be more optimistic than some of these doomsday forecasts that have no real PROOF that this thing is going to wipe Louisiana off of the map. I don't know what it will do. You don't know what it will do. They don't know what it will do. The bottom line is this...some want to believe the best case scenario, some want to believe the worst case scenario. You apparently were a part of Katrina, and have horrible memories of that...I have memories of Lily, and how it stopped and dropped before it hit. It doesn't make any of us right...but I know who I am rooting for. And it ain't The Weather Channel. I can be guilty of wishful thinking my friend, but not of being stupid enough to disregard the possibility of grave danger. I am just hoping for the best...and until I see VIABLE AND UNPARALLELED PROOF...I will continue to do so. After all...we won the National Championship last year after that was considered impossible...and not to mention the baseball teams havoc on "impossibility"...I am believing the same for La vs Gustav....we win. :laflagwav
