I look at that water vapor loop, and it screams to me that it ain't gonna turn west. Somethings gotta change for it to. It was supposed to yesterday, but didn't. It didn't today, either. Maybe it still will...I dunno. But with the forward speed this thing has picked up, I just think it has to hurry if it's gonna change course as they forecasted. I mean, it may change course a little, but I don't see it going to your west. One interesting thought. About the friction with land making a storm turn right. If you watch a loop, you can easily see that it tracked more north than west as it interacted with Cooba. But once it got back over open water, it seems to have assumed a NW course again. IMHO, that's the backside of the storm interacting with Cooba. So, wonder what it will do when it is totally away from Cuba?:huh:
I guess TWC is just trying to make sure everyone expects the worse, because reports I see on links I got from here say it is only a Cat 2 at this point with maximum winds of 105mph, and that it is very unorganized and is getting wind shear from the Northwest. We will see I guess.
I've spent a couple of decades investigating and mapping Louisiana coastal land loss, storm surges, geologic changes, and subsidence. Fellers, Louisiana is going to experience some extreme changes in the next 50 to 100 years and there is nothing the federal government, the state, or the Corps of Engineers can do about it. They will spend a Trillion dollars for political reasons, but the fact is that the Louisiana shoreline will continue to retreat, marshes will become open water miles inland, and the delta continues to subside under its own great weight of sediment. I fear that Houma/Thibodaux is living on borrowed time. In a couple of decades, it going to be like Grand Isle in that nobody can build there without realizing that they are risking everything to hurricane loss. Fishing camps are one thing, but cities like Houma can't survive those conditions very long. It won't happen overnight, but it may be time for Terrebonne and Lafourche residents (especially young ones with more options) to consider jobs and properties further inland in the long run.
Well, I don't think this is any sort of conspiracy or attempt to mislead the public as a scare tactic, it's just that its a dynamic process and storms change. According to the latest official report by the National Weather Service (www.noaa.gov), it is still a Cat3 and they expect a Cat4 by landfall: "THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 18 TO 25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER TODAY. REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...24.7 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT."
I ain't saying this to sound rude or anything. But it's A LOT easier for you to sit at home in BR and say that when you never lived in either place. When you lived there for 21 years, when your parents for 50 more, when your grandparents for 80 more, it's hard to do.
It won't happen overnight, but it may be time for Terrebonne and Lafourche residents (especially young ones with more options) to consider jobs and properties further inland in the long run.
That's funny...because according to this site, the storm surge will be no higher than 9 foot. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_surge.html#a_topad
