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Hurricane Gustav

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by fanatic, Aug 25, 2008.

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Krypto Huh?

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WRBZ just showed some new projections taking the eye over BR.

Krypto, Aug 30, 2008

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Krypto Huh?

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similiar to this, but a tiny bit more east

Krypto, Aug 30, 2008

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SonnyLoco Founding Member

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Fishhead said: ↑

Very few on here have heard my thoughts on this storm...what I actually believe will happen. Nootch is one of them. I do not want to sound doomsday, but this is what I believe, and I believe the models are beginning to hint this way too with the 8pm runs.

I have thought all along that this storm is NOT going to move as far west as they have been forecasting. There has been a trough that has been supposed to lift out of the area for three days now, and it has yet to do so. The ridge that was going to turn it west was supposed to take it's place. This hasn't happened either, because the trough is still in place.

FWIW, I have been calling for an Alabama landfall...and I am probably wrong on that. However, I still maintain it will hit somewhere between GI and Mobile.

-Trough may move out, but too late to turn such a large and powerful system that much...unless it slows way down.

-The storm has feeder bands over FL, and that little bit of friction will make it hard to turn left, too.

-I have NEVER seen a hurricane turn left at landfall...again...friction won't allow it. (Tropical storms, yes...but strong hurricanes, no)

-This particular storm hasn't moved due NW all day. I have a site...a radar loop...and I put longitude and latitude lines on it. If a storm is moving due NW, the eye would move from the bottom left corner of the box to the top left corner. Today, the eye started in the middle of the bottom, and will exit the box at the top left.

I do not understand why the NHC is afraid to call the movement NNW. I am positive they know more than I do, and I know they cannot react to every wobble. But when I have a 12 hr loop showing a NNW movement, it's moving NNW. Further, that may mean it's only 30 miles east of their forecast for the day, but after it crosses the entire GOM, assuming it keeps the same motion, it's a difference of over 100 miles.

I put a straightedge on the loop today, keeping the eye on the edge. If the storm continues on is current path...extrapolated out...it hits Pascagoula/Mobile. Will it do this? I don't know. A wobble here or a wobble there will make a difference. But I just don't see it turning west as it approaches landfall. If it turns more west, it'll be tomorrow while it's still out in the GOM. It better hurry, because the forward speed has increased a good bit in the past 24 hours.

I say none of this to impart fear. If that were the case, I would tell Nootch the NHC is right. That said, I AM NOT A METEOROLOGIST, A HURRICANE EXPERT, or anything of the sort. I've just done a little studying in my younger years, and have kept up with these things all my life.

Best piece of advice; if you are in the cone, do as you would if you KNEW it was coming right at you. I hope and pray everyone has already made their preps, and evacuated if they're in a low lying area. This stands to be a severe surge event, and surge kills.
Click to expand...

I hope you are right. I want to believe you. As a matter of fact...I will.

SonnyLoco, Aug 30, 2008

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SonnyLoco Founding Member

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I am starting to have the same views as Fishhead. I think this thing is gonna hit East of New Orleans when it is all said and done.

SonnyLoco, Aug 30, 2008

#274
Nutriaitch Fear the Buoy

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Fishhead said: ↑

Very few on here have heard my thoughts on this storm...what I actually believe will happen. Nootch is one of them. I do not want to sound doomsday, but this is what I believe, and I believe the models are beginning to hint this way too with the 8pm runs.

I have thought all along that this storm is NOT going to move as far west as they have been forecasting. There has been a trough that has been supposed to lift out of the area for three days now, and it has yet to do so. The ridge that was going to turn it west was supposed to take it's place. This hasn't happened either, because the trough is still in place.

FWIW, I have been calling for an Alabama landfall...and I am probably wrong on that. However, I still maintain it will hit somewhere between GI and Mobile.

-Trough may move out, but too late to turn such a large and powerful system that much...unless it slows way down.

-The storm has feeder bands over FL, and that little bit of friction will make it hard to turn left, too.

-I have NEVER seen a hurricane turn left at landfall...again...friction won't allow it. (Tropical storms, yes...but strong hurricanes, no)

-This particular storm hasn't moved due NW all day. I have a site...a radar loop...and I put longitude and latitude lines on it. If a storm is moving due NW, the eye would move from the bottom left corner of the box to the top left corner. Today, the eye started in the middle of the bottom, and will exit the box at the top left.

I do not understand why the NHC is afraid to call the movement NNW. I am positive they know more than I do, and I know they cannot react to every wobble. But when I have a 12 hr loop showing a NNW movement, it's moving NNW. Further, that may mean it's only 30 miles east of their forecast for the day, but after it crosses the entire GOM, assuming it keeps the same motion, it's a difference of over 100 miles.

I put a straightedge on the loop today, keeping the eye on the edge. If the storm continues on is current path...extrapolated out...it hits Pascagoula/Mobile. Will it do this? I don't know. A wobble here or a wobble there will make a difference. But I just don't see it turning west as it approaches landfall. If it turns more west, it'll be tomorrow while it's still out in the GOM. It better hurry, because the forward speed has increased a good bit in the past 24 hours.

I say none of this to impart fear. If that were the case, I would tell Nootch the NHC is right. That said, I AM NOT A METEOROLOGIST, A HURRICANE EXPERT, or anything of the sort. I've just done a little studying in my younger years, and have kept up with these things all my life.

Best piece of advice; if you are in the cone, do as you would if you KNEW it was coming right at you. I hope and pray everyone has already made their preps, and evacuated if they're in a low lying area. This stands to be a severe surge event, and surge kills.
Click to expand...

Like I told you in PM, I hope to God you are right!!
Don't really want it to go to Pascagoula, since I have family there too, though.

Krypto said: ↑

WRBZ just showed some new projections taking the eye over BR.
Click to expand...

I was kinda meaning how far on the coast??
I'm in BR right now, but live in Lower Terrebonne.
Spot of landfall is CRUCIAL to me.

Nutriaitch, Aug 30, 2008

#275
Crip*TEAM KATT As Wild As We Wanna Be

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Fishhead said: ↑

-I have NEVER seen a hurricane turn left at landfall...again...friction won't allow it. (Tropical storms, yes...but strong hurricanes, no)
.
Click to expand...

Hurricane Carmen was headed straight for the mouth of the river and hours before landfall took a sharp left hand curve and made a bee line for lake charles.

Crip*TEAM KATT, Aug 30, 2008

#276
Fishhead Founding Member

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Crip*TEAM KATT said: ↑

Hurricane Carmen was headed straight for the mouth of the river and hours before landfall took a sharp left hand curve and made a bee line for lake charles.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but I didn't see it.:hihi:

Fishhead, Aug 30, 2008

#277

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Krypto Huh?

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Nutriaitch said: ↑

Like I told you in PM, I hope to God you are right!!
Don't really want it to go to Pascagoula, since I have family there too, though.

I was kinda meaning how far on the coast??
I'm in BR right now, but live in Lower Terrebonne.
Spot of landfall is CRUCIAL to me.
Click to expand...

sorry about that. I could not see landfall on the map. It was covered with prediction lines. I keep hoping they would have put the feed on their site and i would get it there. If i had to guess the lines may have moved a bit closer to Grand Isle, but that is just a guess.

Krypto, Aug 30, 2008

#278
Fishhead Founding Member

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Crip*TEAM KATT said: ↑

Hurricane Carmen was headed straight for the mouth of the river and hours before landfall took a sharp left hand curve and made a bee line for lake charles.
Click to expand...

I found it...1974. Sure did take a left. I was 5.

Fishhead, Aug 30, 2008

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Fishhead Founding Member

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Krypto said: ↑

sorry about that. I could not see landfall on the map. It was covered with prediction lines. I keep hoping they would have put the feed on their site and i would get it there. If i had to guess the lines may have moved a bit closer to Grand Isle, but that is just a guess.
Click to expand...

It is a correct guess. GI for now, Nootch. Another update soon, but I doubt they move much in that time frame.

Fishhead, Aug 30, 2008

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