I am waiting on one final set of post debate polls to be released tomorrow by NBC/Marist which marks the end of this polling cycle. There is no doubt that Romney has gained ground. What will be interesting, and perhaps more telling, is whether Obama is losing ground. In politics there are two kinds of polls shifts: stalls and slides. From what I am seeing in the information so far and what I am hearing from other pollsters who I respect is that this seems to be more of a stall for the President than a slide. A slide is when you start dropping in the polls, similar to what Romney was doing before the debate, and it generally takes a big deal like a sweeping debate victory to stop a slide. A stall is when your campaign has been running smoothly then takes one in the mouth the way Obama did during the debate. That said, a stall turns into a slide quickly if you don't right the ship and, in Obama's case, perform better at the next debate.
Okay, so we now have a solid week of polling since the debate. There is no doubt that Romney revived his candidacy with his debate performance a week ago. That said, the polls show that he will need more nights like that one and some stumbles by Obama to win. We are still at 237 definite electoral votes for Obama and 191 for Romney as we head into the swing states. Here is how it looks: Colorado - last week, 49-46, Obama.....this week, 48-48 Iowa - last week, 48-45, Obama.....this week, 49-47, Obama Wisconsin - last week, 51-44, Obama.....this week, 50-47, Obama New Hampshire - last week, 50-44, Obama.....this week, 49-46, Obama Florida - last week, 49-46, Obama.....this week, 48-48 Virginia - last week, 49-46, Obama.....this week, 48-48 North Carolina - last week, 47-47, Tied.....this week, 49-47, Romney Ohio - last week, 49-44, Obama.....this week, 49-46, Obama Nevada - last week, 50-45, Obama.....this week, 48-46, Obama You can definitely see where Romney has gained ground but as I said before, it will require more poor performances by the President and continued success by Romney to close the gap electorally. Given the information above if the election were held today Obama would win electorally no less than 281-257 and that is considering that all the states which are currently tied end up going to Romney. If Obama wins the tied states then it is more like 332-206. As long as Obama can win Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa then he wins regardless of what Romney wins. This is still a very difficult task for the Romney campaign and every day that passes makes it more difficult. The Republicans have more voter enthusiasm but the Democrats have considerably better ground games in all of the swing states. Can't wait for the VP debate tonight!
NC, do you know if Gary Johnson was included as an option in the polls you are referencing? I read an article last night that he is hurting Obama's numbers in Nevada. I linked the article in another thread.
What is the spread used for each of the states you listed? I might be saying it wrong as I am new to most of the polling and how it is done, but for an example: I saw a poll a while back that had Obama up by 8 points but it also had "D+8" attached....
Johnson is included in some of the polls that I use. To get the numbers that I use, I take an average of every poll available. This includes both Republican and Democratic leaning polls, some that include Johnson and some that do not. As far as Nevada, I have not noticed Johnson making a big difference there. What is making a big difference in Nevada is the fact that they have the highest unemployment rate in the country; something like 12%. Obama is running strong there but I see Nevada as one that is ripe for the picking if Romney can continue his momentum. Now, Johnson is definitely hurting Obama in Colorado because Colorado is a medical marijuana state and Johnson is an outspoken proponent for legalizing pot. Johnson, ironically enough, has only been included in the Colorado polls for the past few weeks so I am still waiting to see to what extent Johnson is hurting Obama.
Everything now looks to be within margin of error. If I were a Dem, I would have next to zero faith Old Joe says anything of importance.
Like I was telling Supa....I use an average of all the polls published so my sample includes both dem and repub polls. To answer your question: yes, there are some polls that are slanted D+8 but there are also polls slanted toward the Republicans. In the end I think we get at least a reasonable sample of the where the race stands. Republicans have an advantage in voter enthusiasm but Democrats have a much better ground game with nearly four times as many offices in the swing states.
the closer we get to election day the less relevance margin of error will hold. historically, the last 2-3 weeks of polling have been correct when election day comes. joe will hold his own
