Election 2020

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    Hillary puts a billion on herself and has all the others whacked
     
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  2. shane0911

    shane0911 Helping lost idiots find their village Staff Member

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    She would still lose
     
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  3. Jmg

    Jmg Senior Member

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  4. mancha

    mancha Alabama morghulis

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    I can’t speak for the site I quoted. It was just a link. All of this betting on the election shit is new to me. Just curios.

    It’s a 50/50 bet and who you like will make your choice right now. That is the way it seems.
     
  5. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC It's Been Long Enough

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    56 Days until Election Day.

    A few things to clear up from comments I read: The polling averages I am posting each week are based upon polling over the ast 30 days. I have done it that way because polling was more sparse in the beginning. This will be the last week that I use 30 days worth of polling. Next week I will use the past 14 days of polling as polling heats up as we get closer to election day. I will also include all polling done during the past week and you can look at 270towin.com or realclearpolitics.com for each poll if you'd like to see the internals of each poll.

    To date Biden still has 208 "safe" electoral votes and Trump has 126 "safe" electoral votes. The battleground polls look like this:

    AZ - Biden leads 48.1-43.4
    Morning Consult, Biden 52-42
    FOX, Biden 49-40
    FL - Biden leads 48.5-39.5
    Morning Consult, Biden 49-47
    Quinnipiac, Biden, 48-45
    Trafalgar, Trump 45-49
    GA - Trump leads 46.2-45.6
    Morning Consult, Biden 49-46
    Landmark, Trump 41-48
    IA - No polling over the past 30 days
    MI - Biden leads 48.-43.4
    Morning Consult, Biden 52-42
    PPP, Biden 48-44
    MN - Biden leads 49.8-45.3
    Morning Consult, BIden 50-43
    PPP, Biden 52-44
    NV - Biden leads 44-39
    Qualtrics, Biden 44-39
    NH - Biden leads 51-43
    NM - Biden leads 54-39
    Albuquerque Journal, Biden 54-39
    NC - Biden leads 47.2-46.8
    Morning Consult, Biden 49-47
    East Carolina, Trump 47-49
    FOX, Biden 50-46
    OH - Trump leads 48.5-48
    Morning Consult, Trump 50-49
    PA - Biden leads 49.5-40.8
    Morning Consult, Biden leads 49-45
    Monmouth, BIden 49-45
    Rasmussen,, Tied 46-46
    Quinnipiac, Biden 52-44
    TX - Trump leads 47.8-45.5
    Morning Consult, Trump 48-47
    UT-Tyler, Trump 46-48
    WI - Biden leads 49.1-43.2
    Morning Consult, Biden 51-43
    FOX, Biden 50-42
    YouGov, Biden 50-44
    Rasmussen, Biden 51-43
     
  6. LSUpride123

    LSUpride123 Boobies make everything A OK!!!

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    Why do you do this? You post a new format every week and mention nothing of Biden's lead evaporating? You are either bout this life or you aint bruh!
     
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  7. kcal

    kcal Founding Member

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    LSUpride123 and Perple like this.
  8. mctiger

    mctiger RIP, and thanks for the music Staff Member

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    Will Biden be the first person to win an election on a strategy of hiding from the public?
     
  9. Winston1

    Winston1 Founding Member

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    This is an interesting review of the election dynamics. The point made is that there are too many unknowns to make a prediction. This is from The Bulwark


    We are now past another of the big campaign milestones: Labor Day.

    How does the race look?

    Pretty much like it's looked the entire way:
    [​IMG]

    Let's see how this compares to the polling in 2016:
    [​IMG]

    A few points to note:
    • On September 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton was +3.3
    • Today, Biden is +7.5, so his lead is more than double what Clinton's was at this point.
    • Relative to 2020, the 2016 race was more volatile. There were moments when Clinton and Trump were tied; moments when Trump was in the lead; moments when Clinton's lead was large (+8), and moments when Clinton's lead was within the margin of error.
    • To date, Trump has never been closer than -3.4 against Biden.
    • On September 10, Biden will have been over the 50 percent mark for a full month. Clinton was never over 50 percent, or even very close to it.
    Now, what does that all mean?

    It means this: If the election were held under normal circumstances then the most likely outcome would be a Biden victory of somewhere between +5 and +7 in the popular vote.

    What's more, the confidence level on that likelihood would be as high (or higher) than it's been at this point in any recent election.

    But there are two problems:

    (1) The election will not be held under normal circumstances. I cannot emphasize this enough: It is almost impossible to make useful assumptions about what the pandemic will do to voting. Here is a chart showing the raw number of total votes in presidential elections dating back to 1900.
    [​IMG]
    Any model of the eventual outcome relies on having an educated guess on the range of total votes to be cast. Post 9/11, our election turnout have ranged from 121 million to 130 million votes.

    In the pandemic environment do you think the total turnout is likely to be closer to 100 million? Or 140 million?

    Nobody knows.

    And if you can't even get a baseline on raw vote totals, then everything else in a model is going to be a crapshoot.

    (2) The Electoral College advantage for Republicans has grown to such a degree that even a +5 popular vote margin for John Biden leaves Trump with a 10 percent chance of victory in the EC.

    All of which is to say that we are in a paradox. We know what the mood of the country is. We know what people think.

    But we have no idea who will be elected president 55 days from now.
     
  10. onceanlsufan

    onceanlsufan Veteran Member

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