71 days until election day. Not a lot has changed in polling and it has, in face, slowed since the conventions started. I imagine we'll see a lot of fresh polling after the conventions. Dems had their shot last week, Trump will get his this week. If you'd like a closer look at the polls and the internal demographics I get all of them from 270towin.com. There you will find polling for each state and you can look at the inner dynamics if you'd like. Both candidates are holding the same "safe" states that total 186 electoral votes for Biden and 126 for Trump. Arizona - Biden up 47.6-43.3 Colorado - Biden up 53-40 Florida - Biden up 49.3-44.1 Georgia - Biden up 46.2-45.7 Iowa - Trump up 45.7-44 Michigan - Biden up 49.2-41.5 Minnesota - Biden up 49-44.8 Nevada - Biden up 49-45 New Hampshire - Biden up 52-41.5 New Mexico - Biden up 53-39 North Carolina - Biden up 46.9-45.8 Ohio - Trump up 47-45.7 Pennsylvania - Biden up 49.3-43 Texas - Trump up 47-45.2 Virginia - Biden up 51-40 Wisconsin - Biden up 48.7-42 This would leave Trump with 188 electoral votes and Biden with 350. I'd encourage you to take a look at fivethirtyeight.com for some of Nate Silver's commentary and polling summaries.
Nathalie Harp contradicted herself when she dismissed medical marijuana and linked it with opioids when flapping her trap about right to try. It was idiotic. I dismissed the rest of her speech. Still Trump 2020 - but a little less. That was stupid.
how much do the impending riots in Wisconsin tip the scales for trump? still lots of current events to shape the election yet to come...
that cuban dude who just spoke at the convention and spoke against big government and socialism was a fucking destroyer. side note. now nikki haley is speaking. every person the media accuses of racism against kamala for VP would vote for nikki haley :also an indian woman.
Yes, he was. The Cuban people love the US and in general have very strong traditional values. They lean conservative but that too is changing. The younger Cuban generations don't have as much passion. I thought most of the speakers were very effective. Andrew Pollack also destroyed the Democrat "restorative justice" policy. Which basically ignores crime and puts dangerous people back on the street. Herschel Walker was great too. All I saw at the DNC was 'Orange man bad". To contrast the two, the DNC featured a speaker that is a convicted murderer and the RNC featured the dad of a murder victim. You can go riding with Biden if you want, but this Democrat is traveling with Trump.
also from 538: Biden is in a reasonably strong position: Having a 70-ish percent chance of beating an incumbent in early August before any conventions or debates is far better than the position that most challengers find themselves in. And his chances will improve in our model if he maintains his current lead. But for the time being, the data does not justify substantially more confidence than that
