Election 2020

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC It's Been Long Enough

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    100 days out from Election Day so I thought it would be as good a time as any to start tracking some of the battleground state polling. To date the following states qualify as battleground states for the 2020 election and they are as follows, along with their respective number of electoral votes and who won them in 2016:
    Arizona - 11 (2016, Trump)
    Colorado - 9 (2016, Clinton)
    Florida - 29 (2016, Trump)
    Georgia - 16 (2016, Trump)
    Iowa - 6 (2016, Trump)
    Michigan - 16 (2016, Trump)
    Minnesota - 10 (2016, Clinton)
    Nevada - 6 (2016, Clinton)
    New Hampshire - 4 (2016, Clinton)
    New Mexico - 5 (2016, Clinton)
    North Carolina - 15 (2016, Trump)
    Ohio - 18 (2016, Trump)
    Pennsylvania - 20 (2016, Trump)
    Texas - 38 (2016, Trump)
    Virginia - 13 (2016, Clinton)
    Wisconsin - 10 (2016, Trump)

    Safely in the Republican column are: Idaho (4), Utah (6), Wyoming (3), Montana (3), Alaska (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (8), Missouri (10), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), South Carolina (9) and West Virginia (5) for a total of 126 electoral votes.

    Safely in the Democrats column are: Washington (12), Oregon (7), California (55), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), DC (3), Maryland (10), Delaware (3), New Jersey (14), Connecticut (7), Rhode Island (4), Massachusetts (11), New York (29), Vermont (3), Maine (4) for a total of 186 electoral votes.

    So this is where we start. Biden 186, Trump 126 with 226 electoral votes up for grabs.

    Every week I will update the polling averages for all 16 battleground states over a 30 day period. These rolling averages should suffice to show trends in the electorate and give us a better picture of where the race stands week to week. If states become so one-sided that they are no longer considered battlegrounds I will move them into each column accordingly. If states that are currently in the "safe" categories for each camp become more competitive I will move them into the battlegrounds and begin tracking them as well.

    Here is the first data. This is the average polling from every battleground state as well as the number of polls that figured into average. If a state had no polling in the past 30 days I will report the last polling available and notate it as such.

    Arizona - Biden leads 49-44.9 with 9 polls reporting (4.1)
    Colorado - Biden leads 56-39 with 1 poll reporting (17)
    Florida - Biden leads 49.4-43.4 with 7 polls reporting (6)
    Georgia - Trump leads 48-46 with 3 polls reporting (2)
    Iowa - Biden leads 48-46 with 1 poll reporting (2)
    Nevada - No polls in last 30 days. Last polling, Biden leads 49-45 (4)
    New Hampshire - No polls in last 30 days. Last polling, Biden leads 49-42 (7)
    New Mexico - No polls in last 30 days. Last polling, Biden leads 53-39 (14)
    North Carolina - Biden leads 47.8-46.3 with 6 polls reporting (1.2)
    Ohio - Trump leads 46-45 with 1 poll reporting (1)
    Pennsylvania - Biden leads 49-42.8 with 8 polls reporting (6.2)
    Texas - Trump leads 45.7-45.5 with 6 polls reporting (0.2)
    Virginia - No polls in the last 30 days. Last polling, Biden leads 51-39 (12)
    Wisconsin - Biden leads 48-43.6 with 5 polls reporting. (4.4)

    If the election were held today and the average polling by state is correct the EC vote would be 340-198 with a Biden victory. If you take the three states that polled inaccurately in 2016 and give those to Trump instead the EC vote would be 294-244 with Biden still winning the election.

    Long time to go. 100 days in an eternity in politics. We will see how it shapes up as the election nears. With Covid-19, an economy on the brink and rioting going on all over the country there are a number of factors that could play a role in how the election goes down. Should be interesting.

    July 26, 2020 report: Advantage Biden
     
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  2. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC It's Been Long Enough

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    I will also keep up with the 2020 Senate races since it seems to be competitive heading into the election. Currently, each party holds 47 safe or likely seats in the Senate with 6 seats considered "toss ups."

    The 6 toss up seats are as follows:

    Arizona - Mark Kelly(D) leads Martha McSally(R) by an average of 8 points
    Georgia - David Perdue(R) leads John Osoff(D) by an average of 2 points
    Iowa - Teresa Greenfield(D) leads Joni Ernst(R) by an average of 2 points
    Maine - Sara Gideon(D) leads Susan Collins(R) by an average of 5 points
    Michigan - Gary Peters(D) leads John James(R) by an average of 10 points
    Montana - Steve Bullock(D) leads Steve Daines(R) by an average of 2 points
    North Carolina - Cal Cunningham(D) leads Thom Tillis(R) by an average of 4 points

    We are still 100 days from election day so this is just a snapshot. I will update these weekly along with the Presidential race average polling. If nothing else this will show a trend as we lead up to election day.

    July 26, 2020 report: Advantage Democrats 52-48
     
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  3. el005639

    el005639 Founding Member

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    There is no reality in the multiverse, much less this one, in which Texas goes to Biden. Keep believing that Texas is purple.
     
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  4. mctiger

    mctiger RIP, and thanks for the music Staff Member

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    Nor can I imagine him winning Pennsylvania when the Trump campaign starts concentrating adds on what the Green New Deal would do to jobs in that state.
     
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  5. Kikicaca

    Kikicaca Senior Member

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    Odds Joe Burrow would win the Heisman start of 2019; 200-1.
    Odds DEMOCRATS will try everything to steal the election; 100%
    Odds the country goes into deep recession or depression if Pedo Joe wins; 100%
    Odds NC has no clue what happened to America if Pedo Joe wins; 100%
    Odds if Trump wins the DEMOCRATS will blame Russian colusion and investigate for 4 years; 100%
    Odds if Trump wins there is an attempted assination of Trump; 80%
    Odds that NC has any common sense; 0%
     
  6. LSUpride123

    LSUpride123 Boobies make everything A OK!!!

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    Would be massive voter fraud if it actually happened.
     
  7. Winston1

    Winston1 Veteran Member

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    So if most of Texas’s counties and poll locations are in Republican hands how the Democrats going commit massive voter fraud?
     
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  8. Winston1

    Winston1 Veteran Member

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    I posted this earlier in another thread but it’s appropriate here. It compares poll results from 2016 and now. Trump has significant drops everywhere.
    Here’s a comparative analysis of the poll standings in 2016 and 2020. This from The Bulwark an admittedly anti Trump conservative publication
    1. Landslide
    Doug Sosnik is one of the smartest political operatives out there, a guy who gives you real insights without playing angles to make his team look better or position himself for the next client. And every so often he puts together a deck of electoral analysis and drops it out into the world, like a message in a bottle.

    He released one of those bottles this week. You can see the entire deck here. It is absolutely worth your time.

    But there's one slide I want to pull out and highlight, because it tells the entire story of this election:
    [​IMG]
    You can look at the details if you want, but the Big Takeaway from these numbers is that Trump has lost ground with every single group.

    And he's lost a lot of ground.

    With all of them.

    All men? Trump has lost 10 points.

    White non-college men? Trump has lost 14 points.

    White college women? Trump has lost 21 points.

    Seniors? Trump has lost "only" 8 points.

    In fact, seniors are the only group where Trump's decline hasn't been double-digits.

    But here's what I want to focus on: If you pull back, what you see is a president who has lost large chunks of support literally everywhere.

    And that is the very definition of losing reelection efforts.

    Almost all presidents who win reelection do so by adding to their coalitions. If you're not adding support, then you're losing. There are a thimbleful of exceptions to this rule (Obama 2012), but in those instances the sitting president started with a landslide margin of victory from his first term.

    So the problem for Trump isn't just the polling in this state or that state. It's that the entire dynamic of the election is going the wrong way for him. And there is nothing about the last four years that suggests that he is capable of building on his 2016 coalition. Just in terms of support, this has been an avalanche moving downhill since about March of 2017. There is no reason to think that it's suddenly going to stop and change direction.

    By the way, on the subject of landslides: One of the theories I outlined yesterdayabout the election is that Trump could close the gap and get to +6, maybe.

    I want you to think about the 2008 election and the massive victory Barack Obama won that realigned much of American politcs.

    Obama's margin of victory was +7.

    Things are so bad for Trump that we are trying to conjure scenarios where maybe, if he gets lucky, he could tighten the race to the point where Biden is only winning
     
  9. Bengal B

    Bengal B Founding Member

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    Texas is an oil state. Biden has said he wants to eliminate fossil fuels. The people of Texas are not going to vote for anybody who will put them in the unemployment line
     
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  10. LSUpride123

    LSUpride123 Boobies make everything A OK!!!

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    You arent very bright are you.
     
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