The financial crisis has gotten much worse than I thought it would, but I am still sticking with my philosophy of buying as much stock as possible for long-term returns while expecting fairly crappy returns for the next 10 years or so. I read a book recently, "Active Value Investing: Making money in Range-Bound Markets" by Vitaliy Katsenelson, which was great. Essentially, he says that the stock market will be mediocre for the next 20 years & the best way to get good returns will be to invest in high-dividend, low P/E stocks because the dividend returns will be better than the share price increases. I agree and this is what my portfolio is weighted towards.
I wish I could think in the long term but I'm pretty much near the end of my earn and invest years. Of course I don't have to raise any kids, so I'll manage.
Disturbing interview with Jim Rogers, an american investor who could rival Warren Buffet. Mash here, need speakers Long, but worth it, even just the first half of it. I hope you can suffer through the whole thing... bout 45 min.
Re: Housing still sucks Ahem. Clearly not one of my more prescient moments on Tiger Forums...:redface:
I like Jim Rogers and Warren equally but for different reasons. Jim is cold with the truth and not concerned with the overall picture. I am against bailouts altogether. I agree that banks have gone under forever over many reasons and then there was no reason to bail them out. Extenuating the life blood of the big three is like putting them on life support hoping they come out of a coma. Jim does not really care that an absurd amount of auto workers that will be out of work. His overall view of let them die and the economy will reset works. Japan went 18 years over poor results from bailouts. South Korea allowed failure to occur and rebounded within a couple of years to have one of the strongest, fastest growing economies today. Warren Buffet on the other hand looks at those jobs first and focuses on working from the inside of the box out. he has that kind of compassion but even that comes with conditions. He will not approve funds without good faith demonstrating restructure. Of the big three I feel Ford will succeed while the others slowly die on the vine trying to figure it out. When they are gone, we shall all continue to pay the bill and then some. I am confident unions (for certain industries) will be, for the most part shuffled out with this new model for restructure.
It will take 2-3 years to come out of this economic cycle. Lending institutions have gone back to square one. Lending will be tight. Only proven and economically sound companies and business will be able to get loans. Hang on to your pennies. It's going to get rougher.
