Does a non SEC Champ 1 loss Mississippi State hold off a TCU/Baylor or Ohio State with 1 loss?

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Nov 23, 2014.

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MSU hold on to the #4 spot even if they don't get to play in the SEC CG?

  1. Yes

    12 vote(s)
    57.1%
  2. No

    9 vote(s)
    42.9%
  1. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    MSU has more than solidified their #4 spot in the playoff rankings this week with a 51-0 victory.

    #5 TCU was off this week and #6 Ohio State hurt themselves by a poor showing over a weak Indiana team.

    TCU ends the season with Texas and Iowa State. Ohio State ends the season with Michigan and then play the winner of Wisconsin/Minnesota. They would best be served by playing a 2 loss highly ranked Wisconsin. Having to play Minnesota again would serve no purpose.

    #7 Baylor will have one last shot at making a statement by playing #12 Kansas State to end the season, which would be played on a weekend in which MSU would be idle (given the scenario presented).

    So if MSU comes away with a solid showing and victory over Ole Miss,would it do enough to get them in as the 2nd SEC team in the playoffs, along with Bama (we will assume Bama wins out for sake of argument). We will also assume Oregon and FSU win out. And we also assume that all the teams listed win out (Baylor included).

    I am not asking what you think should happen, but what you think the committee will most likely do, given the way it has shaken out thus far.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2014
  2. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I voted yes. The reason being is that Baylor will be declared the Big 12 champ by virtue of their win over TCU. Thus the argument that TCU should get in over an SEC team that did not win their conference is eliminated. Baylor's loss is too much to overcome (they got dominated by West Virginia). Ohio State has only 1 signature win. A win over a very hot Wisconsin team could change things, however. That's the only reservation I have of MSU staying put at #4. But can they ignore the horrible loss they suffered to Virginia Tech, or will that be looked at as a team that had suffered an injury to their starting QB and was a fluke.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2014
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  3. ParadiseiNC

    ParadiseiNC don't worry, be happy

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    I voted no, but that is reflective of what should happen, not necessarily a prediction of what will happen. The biggest factors for me are twofold, 1. Better competition week after week, 2. "Better" loss

    The thing about losses is that the late season ones impact teams more negatively, even though in the end the records of two teams may be the same. Part of that is voter memory, and part of it is that there is time to build your record back up and overcome the drop in rankings. To me, Baylor and TCU lost "ugly" and MSU lost a tough one to the now top ranked team.
     
  4. b_leblanc

    b_leblanc That's just my game...

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    If they don't get in it will be simply for the fact that the country does not want to see two sec teams in the playoff.
     
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  5. red55

    red55 curmudgeon Staff Member

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    I think State gets in if they win out.
     
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  6. ThePhenom74

    ThePhenom74 Founding Member

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    I think Miss St should be in if they win out.

    However I feel the clamor of a team in the tournament who did not win their conference will be too much. Plus OSU is a marquee school who will garner support from that. They travel well too which helps. Ole Miss falling apart will not help their cause.

    Personally I think Baylor should be in over OSU. THey have looked better and played better competition. It will come down to $$$ though. OSU is the bigger media, marquee name. OSU will also travel better. Sounds like the same issues like before really.
     
  7. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I made it explicitly clear as to what you think the committee will do based on the given scenario.

    I actually think Bama will lose to Auburn again and MSU will win the SEC. But that is not what was asked.

    PS - not sure you can call the TCU loss "ugly". I guess you are referring to the way in which they practically gave the game away? I consider an ugly loss the Baylor loss in which they lost by 14 only after scoring late to make it a touch more respectable, to a team not even in the top 25. The Ohio State loss at home to one of the worst teams in the nation in Vtech, now that's an ugly loss.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2014
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  8. CajunlostinCali

    CajunlostinCali Booger Eatin Moron

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    MSU's single loss is to the #5 team on the planet. That tops everyone elses loss regardless. Think I read somewhere that conference championships will not be a deciding factor towards playoff selection (or so they say..). So...I believe the dogs deserve a rematch with the gumps, yunno, to replace the earth properly back on it's axis.

    With that said the committee will pass on MSU because their strong wins now don't look so hot. 3 top 10 wins against teams that are now at the bottom of their conference. With that and a loss to the gumps, look for a jump even with a win in the egg bowl.
     
  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    this is the type of response I was looking for

    so given that all the 1 loss teams behind them win out, which team do you think the committee will select? do you think Ohio State jumping to #4 depends on them playing Wisconsin over Minnesota (who they already beat)? Baylor ending the season over a #12 ranked and highly regarded KState enough to get there? TCU with only the late 4th quarter meltdown vs Baylor enough for them to get in? Tough decision, for sure.
     
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  10. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I just realized my thread title was stated opposite the poll question, which could have been misleading and caused someone to vote incorrectly.

    I changed the thread title to match.
     

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