With succesful head coaches at major programs, you have a very good idea of how they'll do they when they go somewhere else. You won't have to worry if they can make the transition from a assistant to a head coach, if they are just a flash in the pan, etc... There's years and years of data that will allow you to extrapolate how they'll do.

With an up and comer, you're taking a bigger chance. The field is littered with tons of up and coming guys who never lived up to the hype- who started out strong in his first year before seeing a falling off later, who dominated in a easy conference but struggled against tough competition every week, who were great OCs or DCs but struggled as the HC, etc..

If Miles goes I want a coach who can think out of the box and have guts to take chances when it comes to it.You need to be innovative and to succeed the good old coach with vanilla offense doesn't do it anymore.Florida got really lucky with Urban Myers we will have to take a chance on a relative unknown, young and proven winner some one like Peterson from Boise state.
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Brian Kelly gets my vote!