My prediction is that they will share it with Iowa. That is because we are stupid and don't realize that last year has nothing to do with this year - exactly why we were so overrated to start 04.
I think Tx is too high at #2. They will be young at QB, and they are thin at running back (not counting Henry Melton, at 260 lbs.!). Vince meant an awful lot to that team, and he's gone. Mack Brown has had a lot of top 5 recruiting classes, and I'm sure he can guide them to the top 10, but I'll be surprised if they stay at 2. In the SEC, with 4 stout teams in Aub, LSU, Ga., and Fla., they could end up beating each other up and nobody emerges to the top 2 or 3. I'd like to see us play more 'miami' type games and fewer OT's this year. Let's put some teams away early and often., save my ticker!
I did like Mack Brown's comments about this year's team... ... something about "We will run the same offense, we just may not complete as many third and thirties as we did last year."
Hawkeyes are coming off of a 7-4 regular season campaign, while Ohio State is coming off of a 9-2 campaign, where they almost/should have beating Texas and only expected to get better. I just don't see Ohio State not winning the Big 10. Let's not forget about the most electrifying return man in college football, Ted Ginn. Look for him to be in contention for the Heisman this year.
Last year only has a little bearing on this year. It doesn't matter how each team did last year, what matters is why they should do what you expect this year, and last year should not be a factor in that. Tedd Ginn is a great return man, but overrated as a wide receiver. He will not contend for the Heisman. Despite electrifying talent on offense for Ohio State, their offense will still be pretty bland (that is, relative to the talent on hand). Also, I didn't say that Ohio St would not win the big 10, just that they would not win it outright.
I have a feeling that if you researched the percentage of teams changing ratings from year to year, the variation might be smaller than you think. Especially considering continuity of personel.