It is definitely way to early. And you are right to suggest the country is pretty much split 50/50 between the parties right now, regardless of the candidate. We really don't know anything about John Kerry right now. The theme of his primary campaign is pretty much he is the most electable. Luckily for all of us we have 9 months to learn the what I'm sure will be the fascinating story of John Kerry. I'm not a fanatical anti-abortion voter, but I will still turned off by his guarantee to only appoint pro-abortion Justices. Such staunch pro-abortion justices have a naturally tendency to legislate from the bench which I strongly oppose.
The poll shows that a majority of the voters want an alternative to Bush. It will probably end up being a case of whether the right wing propaganda machine, like Rush, Fox News, O'Reilly, and the rest can demonize Kerry enough for them to hold their noses and vote for Bush. The poll also showed that Bush is beginning to slip behind on the war and the economy. It was not good news for Bush. But like I said, when Fox News begins its "Re-elect Bush" campaign in earnest, you will see all sorts of lies about Kerry told.
I'm firmly in the undecided category. But Kerry has to give me a reason to vote for him. As strongly as I oppose Bush's economic policies. I'm not going to vote for Kerry if all I know about him is he swears to put pro-abortion judges in the federal courts. That isn't a sole reason for me not to vote for him. But certainly not reason enough for me to vote for him. I don't know who will lie for or against Kerry. I really have no idea about him at all right now. And since I'm neither a yellow dog Republican or yellow dog Democrat, I'm not going to embrace him just because he gets the nomination.