Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Frogleg, Jun 24, 2020.
edited to add: you useless piece of shit...
And he is right, you know. I have quit more jobs than most people have had because I won't be a stooge for some idiot boss. I know I can always find another job. That's a power they have over you that they don't have over me.
No he’s not right and you aren’t either. Your situation is different than others. Why should I risk an adverse effect to my employer by putting a trump bumper sticker on my laptop? Why should I risk losing my insurance that helps to care for a member of my household that has pre existing conditions just to argue with someone about politics, knowing that I work for a very socially active company that is politically active? Why should I potentially lose stock options to prove a political point? Everywhere isn’t like where you are. I like my job and the people I work with. I enjoy the benefits provided and the salary and other perks I receive. In return I work hard and contribute in a positive way. It’s a professional relationship. What I do on my time is my business. What I do on theirs is their business.
I could see a rule about drinking on the job or something like that but if you wore a maga hat they would probably fire you. If you wore a black lives matter T shirt you would get a promotion and a raise. We only have one life to live. Not enough time for personal hypocracy .
BTW didn't mean you were a slacker just what you said. Sure you are a hard working guy wasn't aimed at you bro.
But he never lost a job in the city
Working for the man every night and day.
More let them eat cake
Here’s a comparative analysis of the poll standings in 2016 and 2020. This from The Bulwark an admittedly anti Trump conservative publication
Doug Sosnik is one of the smartest political operatives out there, a guy who gives you real insights without playing angles to make his team look better or position himself for the next client. And every so often he puts together a deck of electoral analysis and drops it out into the world, like a message in a bottle.
He released one of those bottles this week. You can see the entire deck here. It is absolutely worth your time.
But there's one slide I want to pull out and highlight, because it tells the entire story of this election:
You can look at the details if you want, but the Big Takeaway from these numbers is that Trump has lost ground with every single group.
And he's lost a lot of ground.
With all of them.
All men? Trump has lost 10 points.
White non-college men? Trump has lost 14 points.
White college women? Trump has lost 21 points.
Seniors? Trump has lost "only" 8 points.
In fact, seniors are the only group where Trump's decline hasn't been double-digits.
But here's what I want to focus on: If you pull back, what you see is a president who has lost large chunks of support literally everywhere.
And that is the very definition of losing reelection efforts.
Almost all presidents who win reelection do so by adding to their coalitions. If you're not adding support, then you're losing. There are a thimbleful of exceptions to this rule (Obama 2012), but in those instances the sitting president started with a landslide margin of victory from his first term.
So the problem for Trump isn't just the polling in this state or that state. It's that the entire dynamic of the election is going the wrong way for him. And there is nothing about the last four years that suggests that he is capable of building on his 2016 coalition. Just in terms of support, this has been an avalanche moving downhill since about March of 2017. There is no reason to think that it's suddenly going to stop and change direction.
By the way, on the subject of landslides: One of the theories I outlined yesterday about the election is that Trump could close the gap and get to +6, maybe.
I want you to think about the 2008 election and the massive victory Barack Obama won that realigned much of American politcs.
Obama's margin of victory was +7.
Things are so bad for Trump that we are trying to conjure scenarios where maybe, if he gets lucky, he could tighten the race to the point where Biden is only winning by the same margin as Obama in 2008.