BCS Championship title maybe getting a bit clearer

No team has ever made it with 2 losses to the BCS CG.

A 1 loss SEC conference game champ does indeed stand a chance (although remote) at surpassing an undefeated WVU team.

Let's take a closer look:

Florida:

The West Carolina game on Nov. 18 looks to be the crippler for the Gators. Why oh why would you schedule such a team? Florida State's dismal season is also hurting the Gators chances. Gators also can't afford the East Division champ to be a 2 loss team (most preferably a 1 loss and top 5 ranked Auburn).

Auburn:

Auburn benefits from an Arkansas St. team (their next opponent) having a good year at 5-3. In the same fashion as Florida, Auburn needs to face a top 5 and 1 loss Florida team for the SEC CG.

Tennessee:

Tennessee has the potential for the biggest lift in the computer rankings with back to back top 15 teams (LSU and Arkansas). They also benefit from division dwellers Vandy and Kentucky with a respectable combined record of 8-9. Tennessee, like Auburn, must face a 1 loss top 5 Florida team in the SEC CG.

Texas:

Texas' computer rankings will also spike up somewhat, with 3 teams remaining, all with winning records. I think they key might be for A&M to be as highly ranked as possible when facing the Longhorns on Nov. 21, leaving the best impression on the voters minds in deciding where Texas should finish up in the Coaches/Harris polls. An A&M team out of the top 25 would not be beneficial.

WVU:

The Mountaineers stand the best chance at improving their low computer rankings (13th). They play 5 teams, all with winning records, including 2 top 15 teams (Louisville, Rutgers). If by chance, the scenario arises that Ohio State loses close to Michigan and only drops to #2, then WVU beating a top 10 and undefeated Rutgers may be just enough to vault them past Ohio State in the final week of the season. I think it would be advantageous for Rutgers to beat Louisville as well be as highly ranked as possible for WVU's chances. Every vote counts.

Louisville:

Louisville plays both WVU and Rutgers in the next 2 weeks, giving them a huge spike in the computer rankings (9th). They suffer from the fact that their 2 wins are in the next 2 weeks, and will not have as much persuasion the voters any further with their remaining schedule (except maybe the Pitt road game). Four of their 5 opponents do have winning records, which helps.

USC:

USC is by no means out of it. In fact their schedule allows them to get right back in the thick of things. Should they beat Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame, in successive weeks, look for them to be one of a handful of 1 loss teams making their claim for the #2 spot, should no Big East team remain undefeated. A lot of this would have to do with "style" points. If USC, by some miracle, cures all that ails them and proceeds to beat these remaining teams by rather larger margins, then the voters could vault them past all other 1 loss teams in the polls.

LSU/Arkansas:

Any hopes by these teams has a lot to do with "style" points. The winner of the LSU/Arkansas game as well as them winning the SEC CG in a really dominating fashion is mandatory to have any chance. Every game has to look great to the voters, from here on out. A hard fought 20-17 win just doesn't cut it.

Boise State:

Yeah, I'm just joking.



Here is my list of who I think will make it based on their best potential outcome:

1. Ohio State undefeated
2. Michigan undefeated
3. WVU undefeated
4. Louisville undefeated
5. Ohio State with 1 loss (close to Michigan)
6. USC with 1 loss (beats all 3 ranked teams convincingly)
7. Florida with 1 loss (SEC Champ)
8. Auburn with 1 loss (SEC Champ)
9. Texas with 1 loss
10. Michigan with 1 loss (close to Ohio State)
11. USC with 1 loss (3 close wins over ranked teams)
12. Tennessee with 1 loss (SEC Champ)
13. Rutgers undefeated
14. Arkansas with 1 loss
15. LSU with 2 losses
16. Boise St. undefeated

So basically from this list and the original post, I don't think a Big East team will go undefeated, Ohio State won't lose in a classic for the ages to Michigan, USC won't dominate its next 3 opponents, and no team from the SEC will survive with only 1 loss and the SEC Championship.

 

Here's a little clearer and more concise perspective on LSU's chances:

1. WVU loses to Louisville, Louisville loses to Rutgers, Rutgers loses to WVU
2. Ohio States annihilates Michigan
3. LSU runs the table, makes it to the SEC CG and beats a 1 loss Florida (bye bye Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas)
4. USC beats Cal, USC loses to Oregon, USC beats Notre Dame (bye bye USC, Cal, ND)
5. Texas loses to Texas A&M
6. Boise St., Boston College and Wisconsin we will surpass merely by winning out

 

I can't see pollsters giving Rutgers the #2 spot in the nation, should they run the table. That's the essential problem for them. WVU, of course. Louisville, I am pretty sure as well will get to #2. Rutgers just started too far back to begin the season.

But I seriously think the 3 of them will beat each other, since each has 1 road and 1 home game vs the other 2 teams. I just think the home team will win each time.