I am just telling you what my two ears heard and my two eyes saw when i woke up and turned on the television. I hope/believe its not true but it just gets you wodering.
I saw something on this last night. They said that the only two teams in the country with two losses that could possible jump to the title game, IF BOTH LSU AND SC LOSE, was Michigan and Texas. They also said Texas had the advantage over Michigan, if this happened. I could believe that Michigan might jump us this week in the human polls, based on some sort of media love for the big 10 (which won't happen any way b/c of the records of the remaining teams). But it won't happen in the BCS no matter what some expert said this morning. The BCS is based on end of the season results with the biggest factor being losses. A team with two losses has a hard time jumping a team with only 1 loss. Michigan basically expected the bowl invite last night by wearing roses on all the TV shows after the game. If SC and LSU both lose, Michigan might be able to make it to the Sugar. But if things play out like they should, Michigan would be in the Rose. The Big 10 and Pac 10 winners are given automatic Rose bowl slots, as long as they are not playing for the NC in another bowl . . . much like the SEC with the Sugar.
I saw something on this last night. They said that the only two teams in the country with two losses that could possible jump to the title game, IF BOTH LSU AND SC LOSE, was Michigan and Texas. They also said Texas had the advantage over Michigan, if this happened. I could believe that Michigan might jump us this week in the human polls, based on some sort of media love for the big 10 (which won't happen any way b/c of the records of the remaining teams). But it won't happen in the BCS no matter what some expert said this morning. The BCS is based on end of the season results with the biggest factor being losses. A team with two losses has a hard time jumping a team with only 1 loss. Michigan basically accepted the Rose bowl invite last night by wearing roses on all the TV shows after the game. If SC and LSU both lose, Michigan might be able to make it to the Sugar. But if things play out like they should, Michigan would be in the Rose. The Big 10 and Pac 10 winners are given automatic Rose bowl slots, as long as they are not playing for the NC in another bowl . . . much like the SEC with the Sugar.
Joe, I think you're mostly right, though it looks like we may need that Georgia quality win boost to catch USC. Cheer like hell next week for, at the very least, the following: -Oregon State, who helped us by losing this past week -Florida, for obvious reasons -Pitt, who would, by beating Miami, all but assure a Florida jump to at least #9 in the polls if Fla. wins at home (HUGE in having Fla. pass Tennessee. Also note that, in ESPN/USA TODAY, a Tennessee win next week vs. Kentucky should allow Tenn. to pick up the handful of votes necessary to jump idle Ohio State, thus improving Fla.'s strength of schedule even more; this means, oddly, a Tenn win may help Fla beat out Tenn in the tiebreaker for the SEC CGame!) That's it. If Oregon St wins, we obviously go Sugar with 2 more wins; if Fla gets to at least #9 in the polls, they have a good shot to pass Tenn and assures us of at least a .5 BCS quality win boost.
Crunching Rick Tellshow's Numbers--Good Read on BCS Projections, Tiger Fans. Allrighty, I know some of you have already seen and even posted about Rick Tellshow's BCS projections (http://www.geocities.com/rtell/body.html Check it out, guys: that close as hell final projection (LSU at 6.97, USC at 6.94) is based on a subtle but very, very important assumption: That Georgia wins the SEC East. Check out the Dawgs projected record of 10-3. This projection assumes an LSU-Georgia SEC title game and an LSU victory. What happens, now, if Florida slips past Tennessee and, therefore, into the SEC title game (Tellshow himself puts the odds, with a Fla win at home next week versus a Fla St team without its best player, at "50-50" at least). Answer: Georgia slides up from 7 to 6 in the final BCS. (PS-Root for Alabama hard this weekend, too, since Tellshow's projected strength of schedule assumes a Hawaii--a USC opponent--victory over Alabama--an LSU opponent. Also, one of the BCS polls--Anderson, I believe--factors in conference versus non-conference W-L records as part of it's process.) So what? Well, do the math: a 0.03 spread in favor of USC becomes a 0.97 spread in LSU's favor since LSU's quality win boost goes from 0.4 to 0.5 (or, from 6.97 to 6.87). How's that for close, Tigah fans? Check back for Tellshow's excellent Key Opponents page later in the week. This battle, if both win out, for second in the BCS between LSU and USC will likely come down to, like it did for Colorado and Nebraska a few years ago, to opponents and opponents opponents.
What a wild finish this might be: LSU wins ESPN/USA TODAY vote split 17-4 this week Check out the latest Top 25: LSU and USC collectively pick up 21 "new" votes (undoubetly taken out of Ohio State's hide) this week...with LSU getting a jump of 17 versus USC's jump of 4. Granted, Tiger fans, our 3 point win was, to put it mildly, disappointing to us...but not as damaging in the eyes of the voters as it could have been. Now, Arkansas presents us with the opportunity to get within "striking distance", if you will, of USC in one of the polls (visions of jumping USC in both polls is sheer fantasy and will not happen). We face Arkansas on national televison on a weekend traditionally known for higher than normal TV ratings for a football game when USC sits at home and munches on leftover turkey this weekend. An impressive, comfortable win over the Hogs should give us more than a 13 vote boost in the ESPN poll (I assume biased AP writers will never move LSU ahead of USC short of a Trojan loss next week). If we get within, say, 40-50 votes of USC after next weekend, does a win over a top 5 Georgia or a top 10 Florida trump a win over unranked Oregon State in the eyes of the coaches and SID's around the country? Interesting.
The whole thing is a mess. The BCS must die. Deciding who goes to a champsionship game in this way is just horrible. An 8 team playoff please. The Elite Eight.
