Your official "How Does LSU make its way into the BCS Title Game?" Thread

Current BCS Standings:
1) .9638 Auburn
2) .9611 Oregon
3) .9259 TCU
4) .8662 Boise State
5) .8170 LSU

Remaining Schedules:
1) Auburn - 11/13 Georgia, 11/26 @Alabama
2) Oregon - 11/13 @ Cal, 11/26 Arizona, 12/4 @ Oregon State
3) TCU - 11/13 San Diego State, 11/27 @ New Mexico
4) Boise State - 11/12 @ Idaho, 11/19 Fresno State, 11/26 @ Nevada, 12/4 Utah State
5) LSU - 11/13 ULM, 11/20 Ole Miss, 11/27 @Arkansas

Current Computer Poll Rankings
.....................JS....AH.....BL...CL....PW.....KM
Auburn............1.......1......2.....1......1.......1........1.000
TCU................3.......2......1.....2......3.......2........0.950
Oregon............2.......4......5.....4......2.......3........0.910
LSU.................6......3......4.....3.......4.......4........0.890
Boise State.....10......5......3.....5.......7.......8........0.790

The most likely scenario that could play out in which LSU ends up in the national title game is as follows:
1) TCU wins out and just hopes either Oregon or Auburn loses, they would be in the title game without a doubt
2) Oregon loses one of it's remaining 3 games (all 3 teams have a legit chance at the upset, so losing one is actually not far fetched)
3) Auburn loses one of it's two remaining games or the SEC CG (again, all 3 teams would have a legit shot at winning, again not far fetched)
4) Boise State either loses to Nevada OR LSU jumps Boise State in the BCS rankings
5) LSU wins out, preferably wins the West and wins the SEC CG (although not required)

I believe the first 3 things are going to occur. It's the 4th piece to the puzzle that gets sketchy (as well as LSU winning out, which is far from certain).

Some simple math:
If you just apply Boise State being placed 4th in the human polls and LSU being 5th in the human polls by every single voter, this yields:

...................Coaches........Harris......Computer.......BCS
LSU............... .840............ .840.......... .890........ .857
Boise State..... .880............ .880.......... .790........ .850

So in other words, given the current computer poll rankings, if LSU were just 1 spot behind Boise State on average for every voter (it's a hypothetical obviously), LSU would be ranked higher than Boise State in the BCS. LSU does not have to pass Boise State or necessarily even get close to Boise's point total in the 2 human polls. A 364 point differential in the Harris needs to narrow to just 114. A 177 point deficit in the Coaches needs to narrow to just 59. LSU roughly needs to eliminate 2/3 of the deficit in both human polls as it currently stands. Obviously it's all a moot point if Nevada pulls the upset and LSU wins out.

LSU's absolute best scenario, given that Boise State does run the table, is for Auburn to lose it's last 2 games, LSU goes to the SEC CG and wins. Then the voters have the tough decision of whether a 1 loss SEC Champ deserves to be in the BCS title game over an undefeated Boise State. LSU computer poll rankings would also be enhanced and may end up making the difference necessary for LSU to overtake Boise State in the final BCS poll. My bet at that point is LSU. Some style points would come into play in this scenario.

As great as the LSU win was on Saturday, the chance LSU had late in the 4th when Alabama was desperate down 24-14, to maybe get a turnover or defensive stop and win 24-14, 27-14, 31-14 would have gone a long long way in getting LSU to a solid #5 in the human polls this past Sunday.

Games of utmost importance to buoy LSU's human poll rankings:
1) Wisconsin to lose at Michigan 11/20
2) Ohio State to lose @ Iowa 11/20 or vs Michigan 11/27
3) Stanford to lose @ Cal 11/20 or vs Oregon State 11/27
4) Nebraska at Texas A&M 11/20

Wisconsin, Ohio State, Stanford and Nebraska are all stealing valuable points from LSU in the human polls (in that order, Wisconsin causing the most damage, Nebraska causing us the least). Given losses by the first 3 of these teams, LSU closes the gap on Boise State by nearly 1/2 (remember we need to reduce the gap by 2/3 ultimately).

Games of importance to help LSU and hurt Boise State in the computer polls (as well as human voter effect):
1) Arkansas to win the next two and be ranked in the top 10
2) Florida to win out and be ranked in the top 15 (hopefully we play them in the SEC CG, but minimally our win over them looks better)
3) Alabama to win out and be ranked in the top 10
4) Nevada to lose @ Fresno State 11/13 - THIS ONE IS HUGE
5) Virginia Tech to lose @ North Carolina 11/13 and @ Miami 11/20
6) Oregon State to lose to USC 11/20
7) West Virginia running the table and get back in the top 25 and be the BCS representative from the Big East

Virginia Tech losing to North Carolina would be of tremendous help for LSU and hurt Boise State considerably. Getting Virginia Tech out of the top 25 and North Carolina into the top 25 instead would go a long way in the computer poll results favoring LSU over Boise State. Nevada losing this week knocks them completely out of the top 25 and a Boise State win is greatly diminished. Oregon State getting a 5th loss would help diminish the affects of possible wins over Stanford and/or Oregon and keep them out of the top 25.

There are still other issues to contend with even if both Oregon and Auburn lose a game. When do they lose a game? If Auburn loses to Georgia and beats Alabama and then wins the SEC CG, do they jump past us? Proabably. If Cal beats Oregon and then Oregon dominates both a ranked Arizona State and then arch rival Oregon State on a weekend in which LSU isn't even playing, do they jump past us? Probably. The most likely scenario for a non SEC Champ LSU to prevail would be for Oregon to lose it's last game vs Oregon State (again, LSU would be idle and pollsters would have a difficult time sending a team that lost it's last game to the BCS title game) and Auburn losing one of it's last two and then lose the SEC CG.

Ultimately the very best scenario would be for Auburn to lose it's last 2 games, LSU become the SEC Champs and Oregon lose ANY of it's last 3 games. A 1 loss SEC Champ will trump a 1 loss PAC-10 team. LSU would be playing their SEC CG the same weekend Oregon would play Oregon State in that scenario. Again, I think LSU as SEC Champs jump Boise State in the final week of the BCS polls.

 

Actually not.

We were down to hoping a 21 point underdog Pittsburgh team with Wannstache at the helm would somehow beat the vaunted West Virginia Mountaineers. And of course OU beating Mizzou (I expected that to happen), and then hope we jump from 7 to 2 in the human and BCS polls.

Luckily we had Herbstreit of all people on national TV during the OU/Mizzou game trumpeting LSU as the best team given the "body of work" to be the other team to face his Buckeyes.